Abstract
According to the last IPCC report, there are several indications that the area of Southeastern Europe might experience large climate changes due to the increase of the concentration of greenhouse gases. These include results of several regional climate studies. In order to objectively study the climate change, precipitation and temperature indices can be used. Climate indices can be calculated either from the local observations of temperature and precipitation or from climate simulations. In this study, we use the results of dynamical downscaling of global simulations obtained by the atmosphere–ocean global circulation model SINTEX-G (AOGCM SX-G/INGV) using a regional climate model, the EBU-POM. The EBU-POM is the combination of the Eta/NCEP as the atmospheric component and Princeton Ocean Model (POM) as the ocean component. Global simulations were done for the very long period 1771–2100, while downscaling was done for the 1961–1990 and 2071–2100 periods according to the SRES-A1B scenario.
Climate indices of two groups are considered. The first group is related to temperature: frost days, growing season length, maximum number of consecutive frost days, and number of tropical days. The second group is related to precipitation: number of days with precipitation ≥10 mm/day, maximum number of consecutive dry days, and simple daily intensity index. The analyses of these climate indices are done for all seasons. Results are presented separately for northern (plains) and southern (mountainous) regions of Serbia.
According to the SRES-A1B scenario, the results from the regional model show an overall increase in the surface air temperature of about 2°C and decrease in precipitation of about 6 mm (~10%) per year over Serbia. The results indicate that number of tropical days will increase, while total number of frost days and heavy rain days will decrease in the future. The results also indicate shorter duration of frost periods and longer duration of dry and vegetation periods over the Serbian region.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Alexander LV, Zhang X, Peterson TC, Caesar J, Gleason B, Klein Tank A, Haylock M, Collins D, Trewin B, Rahimzadeh F, Tagipour A, Ambenje P, Rupa Kumar K, Revadekar J, Griffiths G, Vincent L, Stephenson D, Burn J, Aguilar E, Brunet M, Taylor M, New M, Zhai P, Rusticucci M, Vazquez-Aguirre JL (2006) Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation. J Geophys Res 111:D05109. doi:10.1029/2005JD006290
Bartholy J, Pongrácz R (2007) Regional analysis of extreme temperature and precipitation indices for the Carpathian Basin from 1946 to 2001. Global Planet Change 57:83–95
Bartholy J, Pongrácz R, Gelyló G, Szabó P (2008) Analysis of expected climate change in the Carpathian Basin using the PRUDENCE results. Időjárás 112:249–264
Blumberg A, Mellor G (1987) A description of a three-dimensional coastal ocean circulation model. In: Heaps N (ed) Three-dimensional coastal ocean models. American Geophysical Union, Washington, DC, pp 1–16
Chauvin F, Denvil S (2007) Changes in severe indices as simulated by two French coupled global climate models. Global Planet Change 57:96–117
Déqué M (2007) Frequency of precipitation and temperature extremes over France in an anthropogenic scenario: model results and statistical correction according to observed values. Global Planet Change 57:16–26
Djurdjevic V, Rajkovic B (2008) Verification of a coupled atmosphere-ocean model using satellite observations over the Adriatic Sea. Ann Geophys 26:1935–1954
Djurdjevic V, Rajkovic B (2010) Development of the EBU-POM coupled regional climate model and results from climate change experiments. In: Mihailović DT, Lalić B (eds) Advances in environmental modeling and measurements. Nova, New York, pp 23–32
Fels SB, Schwarzkopf MD (1975) The simplified exchange approximation: a new method for radiative transfer calculations. J Atmos Sci 32:1475–1488
Frich P, Alexander LV, Della-Marta P, Gleason B, Haylock M, Klein Tank AMG, Peterson T (2002) Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the second half of the twentieth century. Clim Res 19:193–212
Goubanova K, Li L (2007) Extremes in temperature and precipitation around the Mediterranean basin in an ensemble of future climate scenario simulations. Global Planet Change 57:27–42
Gualdi S, Navarra A, Guilyardi E, Delecluse P (2003a) Assessment of the Tropical Indo-Pacific Climate in the SINTEX CGCM. Ann Geophys 46:1–26
Gualdi S, Guilyardi E, Navarra A, Masina S (2003b) The Interannual Variability in the Tropical Indian Ocean as Simulated by a CGCM. Clim Dyn 20:567–582
Guilyardi E, Delecluse P, Gualdi S, Navarra A (2003) Mechanisms for ENSO phase change in a coupled GCM. J Clim 16:1141–1158
Janjić ZI (1990) Physical package for step-mountain, Eta coordinate model. Mon Weather Rev 118:1429–1443
Jones PD, Parker DE, Osborn TJ, Briffa KR (2006) Global and hemispheric temperature anomalies – land and marine instrumental records. In: Trends: a compendium of data on global change. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, TN. doi:10.3334/CDIAC/cli.002
Khon CV, Mokhov II, Roeckner E, Semenov AV (2007) Regional changes of precipitation characteristics in Northern Eurasia from simulations with global climate model. Global Planet Change 57:118–123
Kiktev D, Sexton D, Alexander L, Folland K (2003) Comparison of modeled and observed trends in indices of daily climate extremes. J Clim 16:3560–3571
Klein Tank AMG, Können GP (2003) Trends indices of daily temperature and precipitation extremes in Europe, 1946-99. J Clim 16:3665–3680
Madec G, Delecluse P, Imbard M, Levy C (1998) OPA 8.1 Ocean General Circulation Model reference manual. Technical Report, LODYC/IPSL, Note 11, Paris, France, 91 pp
Meehl GA et al (2007) Global climate projections. In: Solomon S et al (eds) Climate Change 2007: the physical science basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 747–845
Mellor GL (2003) Users guide for a three-dimensional, primitive equation, numerical ocean model. Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, 53 pp
Mesinger F, Janjić ZI, Ničković S, Gavrilov D, Deaven D (1988) The step mountain coordinate: model description and performance for cases of Alpine lee cyclogenesis and for a case of an Appalachian redevelopment. Mon Weather Rev 116:1493–1518
Moberg A, Jones P, Lister D, Walther A, Brunet A et al (2006) Indices for daily temperature and precipitation extremes in Europe analyzed for the period 1901–2000. J Geophys Res 111:D22106
Oikonomou Ch, Flocas HA, Hatzaki M, Asimakopoulos DN, Giannakopoulos C (2008) Future changes in the occurrence of extreme precipitation events in eastern Mediterranean. Global NEST J 10:255–262
Pérez C, Nickovic S, Pejanovic G, Baldasano JM, Özsoy E (2006) Interactive dust-radiation modeling: a step to improve weather forecasts. J Geophys Res 111:D16206. doi:10.1029/2005JD006717
Peterson T, Folland C, Gruza G, Hogg W, Mokssit A, Plummer N (2001) Report on the activities of the working group on climate change detection and related rapporteurs 1998–2001. WMO Rep. WCDMP 47, WMO – TD 1071, Geneva, 143 pp
Roeckner E, Arpe K, Bengtsson L, Christoph M, Claussen M, Dümenil L, Esch M, Giorgetta M, Schlese U, Schulzweida U (1996) The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM-4: model description and simulation of present-day climate. Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology, Report No. 218, 90 pp
Tolika K, Anagnostopoulou C, Maheras P, Vafiadis M (2008) Simulation of future changes in extreme rainfall and temperature conditions over the Greek area: a comparison of two statistical downscaling approaches. Global Planet Change 63:132–151
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2012 Springer-Verlag Wien
About this paper
Cite this paper
Kržič, A., Tošić, I., Rajković, B., Djurdjević, V. (2012). Some Indicators of the Present and Future Climate of Serbia According to the SRES-A1B Scenario. In: Berger, A., Mesinger, F., Sijacki, D. (eds) Climate Change. Springer, Vienna. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-7091-0973-1_17
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-7091-0973-1_17
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Vienna
Print ISBN: 978-3-7091-0972-4
Online ISBN: 978-3-7091-0973-1
eBook Packages: Earth and Environmental ScienceEarth and Environmental Science (R0)