Economic Implications for the Community of Turkish Membership

Abstract

Assessment of the economic implications of Turkish membership of the EC is difficult, since Turkey is not expected to join before 2000 at the earliest.¹ It involves forecasting about 15-20 years ahead the economic development of the EC, the economic development of Turkey, and the development of Community membership and policies. Some guidance can be obtained from looking at the current impact on the EC if Turkey were to become a member now, but those indications must be second-best. The forecasting problems are also exacerbated by the very uncertain state of the world economy, given the great changes in technology, in the distribution of industrial production, and in world trade flows that are occurring. This paper will therefore attempt to assess the economic impact by using a combination of current assessment and forecasting of the future developments. Section 1 will outline some existing facts about the structure of the Turkish economy and its trade and other relations with the EC, with special reference to comparisons with the states involved in the second Enlargement of the EC, Greece, Portugal and Spain. Section 2 will outline a scenario for the future shape of the EEC and its policies in 2000. Section 3 will make some guesses about the development of the Turkish economy between 1983 and 2000. Section 4 will then attempt to combine the previous three sections to outline the impact Turkish membership may have on the EC, on the assumption that Turkey may join the Community about 2000. The assessments will all cover the four major economic areas that are relevant: industry, agriculture, budgetary and financial questions, and labour movements.