Zusammenfassung
Wenn der Politikwissenschaftler ein Poet ist, werden seine Simulationen internationaler Beziehungen Kunstwerke sein, Konstruktionen, die ästhetische Bedürfnisse befriedigen. Ist er ein Sozialwissenschaftler, so werden seine Simulationen internationaler Prozesse Theorien sein, die der Verifikation bedürfen wie andere Erkenntnisansprüche auch. Wenn der Wissenschaftler politischer Berater ist, wird er nach Anwendungen von Simulationen streben, die die Politik der Staaten und der internationalen Organisationen in die von ihm gewünschte Richtung lenken. Der Ästhet kann die Zwänge der Wirklichkeit ignorieren. Sowohl der Sozialwissenschaftler wie auch der politische Berater gehen bei dem Versuch, die Abläufe und Ergebnisse der internationalen Politik zu verstehen und zu gestalten, von der Forderung aus, daß ihre Simulationen empirisch verankert, aber nicht durch die „Realitäten“ gefesselt sein sollen. Um Vertrauen in seine Simulation zu gewinnen, kann der Sozialwissenschaftler sie mittels allgemeiner wissenschaftlicher Ergebnisse überprüfen. Darüber hinaus sollte er seine Konstrukte mit den „Realitäten“, d.h. den empirischen Beschreibungen der Nationalstaaten und der internationalen Organisationen vergleichen. Vergleiche von Simulations—Theorien mit herkömmlichen verbalen Theorien sind bereits unternommen worden2. In diesem Aufsatz werden einige Aspekte der Simulation internationaler Prozesse mit entsprechendem Material aus politischen, wirtschaftlichen und militärischen Untersuchungen internationaler Beziehungen verglichen.
Die Vorarbeiten zu dieser Untersuchung erfolgten im Rahmen der Tätigkeit des Autors als Gordon Scott Fulcher Professor of Decision-Making an der Northwestern University. Ein Überblick über die Arbeit wurde auf der Norman Wait Harris Konferenz zur Feier des 65. Jahrestages der University of Chicago im Juni 1966 vorgetragen. Der Autor konnte sich dabei in großem Umfang auf die im Rahmen des JWGA-ARPA-NU-Projektes über Simulated International Processes durchgeführten Untersuchungen stützen, die Teil des International Relations Program an der North-western University sind. Besonderer Dank gilt der Carnegie Corporation, New York, die 1966–67 Mittel zur Weiterarbeit an dieser Untersuchung zur Verfügung stellte.
Harold Guetzkow, „Some Correspondences Between Simulations and ‚Realities’ in International Relations“, aus: Morton A. Kaplan, Ed., New Approaches to International Relations, New York 1968, S. 202–269. Die Übersetzung besorgte Jürgen Holm Lottmann, Bielefeld.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
Literatur
Abelson, R.P. und A. Bernstein, „A Computer Simulation Model of Community Referendum Controversies“, Public Opinion Quarterly, 27 (1963), 93–122
Abt, C.C., „War Gaming“, International Science and Technology, 32 (1964), 29–37
Abt Associates Inc., Report of a Survey of the State of the Art: Social, Political and Economic Models and Simulations. For the National Commission in Technology, Automation and Economic Progress, Cambridge, Mass., 1965
Acheson, D.G., „The President and the Secretary of State“, in: D.K. Price (ed.), The Secretary of State, Englewood Cliffs, N.J., 1960, 27–50
Albertini, L., The Origins of the War of 1914, London 1953
Alger, C.F., „Use of the Inter-Nation Simulation in Undergraduate Teaching“, in: H. Guetzkow, F. Alger, R.A. Brody, C. Noel und R.C. Snyder, Simulation in International Relations: Developments for Research and Teaching. Englewood Cliffs, N.J., 1963, 150–189
Alger, C.F., Persönliche Mitteilung, 1966a
Alger, C.F., „Interaction in a Committee of the United Nations General Assembly“, in: J.D. Singer (ed.), Quantitative International Politics, Insights and Evidence, (International Yearbook of Political Behavior Research. 6.), New York 1968; gekürzte Fassung in Midwest Journal of Political Science, 10 (1966b), 411–447
Alker, H.R., „The Long Road to International Relations Theory: Problems of Statistical NonAdditivity“, World Politics, 18 (1965–66), 623–655
Argyris, C., Some Causes of Organizational Ineffectiveness Within the Department of State, (Department of State Publication. 8180.) Washington, D.C., 1967
Banks, A.S. und R.B. Textor, A -Polity Survey, Cambridge, Mass., 1963
Barber, J.D., Power in Committees: An Experiment inthe Government Processes, Chicago 1966
Basowitz, H., H. Persky, S. Korchin und R. Grinker, Anxiety and Stress, New York 1955
Beer, S., „The World, the Flesh, and the Metal“, Nature, 205 (1965), 223–231
Bem, D.J., M.A. Wallach und N. Kogan, „Group Decision-Making Under Risk of Aversive Consequences“, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 1 (1965), 453–460
Benson, O., „A Simple Diplomatic Game“, in: J.N. Rosenau (ed.), International Politics and Foreign Policy, New York 1961, 504–511
Black, D., The Theory of Committees and Elections, London-New York 1958
Bloomfield, L.P. und N. Padelford, „Three Experiments in Political Gaming“, American Political Science Review, 53 (1959), 1105–1115
Bloomfield, L.P. und B. Whaley, „The Political-Military Exercise: A Progress Report“, Orbis, 8 (1964–65). 854–870 (in diesem Band Kapitel 2)
Boguslaw, R., R. Davis und B. Glick, „A Simulation Vehicle for Studying National Policy Formation in a Less Armed World“, Behavioral Science, 11 (1966), 43–61
Bonham, G.M., „Aspects of the Validity of Two Simulations of Phenomena in International Relations“, unveröff. Diss., M.I.T., Cambridge, Mass., 1967
Bonini, C.P., Simulation of Information and Decision Systems in the Firm, Englewood Cliffs, N.J., 1963
Brodbeck, M., „Models, Meaning, and Theories“, in: L. Gross (ed.), Symposium on Sociological Theory, New York 1959, 373–402
Brody, R.A., „Some Systemic Effects of the Spread of Nuclear-Weapons Technology: A Study Through Simulation of a Multi-Nuclear Future“, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 7 (1963), 663–753 (ein zusammenfassender Bericht über diese Studie ist im vorliegenden Band als Kapitel 11 wiedergegeben)
Burgess, I., „Nations in Alliance: A Simulation of International Coalition Process“, unveröff. Manuskript, Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, 1966
Chadwick, R.W., „Developments in a Partial Theory of International Behavior: A Test and Extension of Inter-Nation Simulation Theory“, unveröff. Diss., Northwestern University, Evanston, Ill., 1966a
Chadwick, R.W., „Relating Inter-Nation Simulation Theory with Verbal Theory in International Relations at Three Levels of Analysis“, unveröff. Manuskript, Northwestern University, Evanston, Ill., 1966b
Chadwick, R.W., „Extending Inter-Nation Simulation Theory: An Analysis of Intra- and International Behavior“, unveröff. Manuskript, Northwestern University, Evanston, Ill., 1966c
Chadwick, R.W., „Theory Development Through Simulation: A Comparison and Analysis of Associations Among Variables in an International System and an Inter-Nation Simulation“, unveröff. Manuskript, Northwestern University, Evanston, Ill.. 1966d
Chadwick, R.W., „An Empirical Test of Five Assumptions in an Inter-Nation Simulation: About National Political Systems“, General Systems, 12 (1967), 177–192
Cherryholmes, C.H., „The House of Representatives and Foreign Affairs: A Computer Simulation of Roll Call Voting, unveröff. Diss., Northwestern University, Evanston, Ill., 1966a
Cherryholmes, C.H., „Some Current Research on Effectiveness of Eductional Simulations: Implications for Alternative Strategies“, American Behavioral Scientist, 10 (1966b) 4–7
Cleveland, H., „Crisis Diplomacy“, Foreign Affairs, 41 (1962–63), 638–649
Colby, K.M. „Computer Simulation of a Neurotic Process“, in: S.S. Tomkins und S. Messick (eds.), Cbmputer Simulation of Personality, New York 1963, 165–179
Coleman, J.S., S. Boocock und E.O. Schild (eds.), Teil I. „In Defense of Games“, American Behavioral Scientist, 10 (1966a)
Coleman, J.S., S. Boocock und E.O. Schild (eds.), Teil II, „Simulation Games and Learning Behavior“, American Behavioral Scientist, 10 (1966b)
Collins, B.E. und H. Guetzkow, A Social Psychology of Group Processes for Decision-Making, New York 1964
Coombs, C.H., A Theory of Data, New York 1964
Coplin, W.D., „Inter-Nation Simulation and Contemporary Theories of International Relations“, American Political Science Review, 60 (1966), 562–578 (in diesem Band Kapitel 7)
Coplin, W.D., „Toward an All-Computer Simulation of the Foreign Policy-Making Forces at the Level of General Policy Trends“, unveröff. Manuskript, Wayne State University, Detroit, Mich., 1967
Coplin, W.D. (ed.), Simulation in the Study of Politics, Chicago 1968
Crecine, J.P., „A Computer Simulation Model of Municipal Resource Allocation“, unveröff. Diss., Carnegie Institute of Technology, Pittsburgh, Penn., 1965
Crow, W.J., „A Study of Strategic Doctrines Using. the Inter-Nation Simulation“, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 7 (1963), 580–589
Crow, W.J. und C. Noel, „The Valid Use of Simulation Results“, unveröff. Manuskript, Western Behavioral Sciences Institute, La Jolla, Calif., 1965
Crow, W.J. und J.R. Raser, „A CrossCultural Simulation Study“, unveröff. Manuskript, Western Behavioral Institute, La Jolla, Calif., 1964
Dahl, R.A., A Preface to Democratic theory, Chicago 1956
Dawson, R.E., „Simulation in the Social Sciences“, in: H. Guetzkow (ed.), Simulation in Social Science, Englewood Cliffs, N.J., 1962, 1–15
De Jouvenel, B. (ed.), Futuribles: Studies in Conjecture, Genf 1963 und 1965
Draper, G., „Technological, Economic, Military, and Political Evaluation Routine (TEMPER) — An Evaluation“, unveröff. Manuskript, Washington, D.C., 1966
Driver, M.J., „Conceptual Structure and Group Processes in an Inter-Nation Simulation“, Teil I: „The Perception of Simulated Nations: A Multidimensional Analysis of Social Perception as Affected by Situational Stress and Characteristic Levels of Cognitive Complexity in Perceivers“, unveröff. Diss., Princeton University, Princeton, N.J., 1962
Driver M.T. A Structural Analysis of Aggression, Stress, and Personality in an Inter-Nation Simulation“, unveröff. Manuskript, Purdue University, Lafayette, Ind., 1965 Driver, M.J., persönliche Mitteilung 1966
Druckman, D., „Ethnocentrism in the Inter-Nation Simulation“, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 12 (1968) 45–68
Duesenberry, J.S., G. Fromm, L.R. Klein und E. Kuh (eds.), The Brookings Quarterly Economic Model of the United States, Chicago 1965
Duijker, H.C.J. und N.H. Frijda, National Character and National Stereotypes, Amsterdam 1960
Easton, D., A Systems Analysis of Political Life, New York 1965
Eckstein, H. und D.E. Apter (eds.), Comparative Politics: A Reader, London-New York 1963
Elder, C.D. und R.E. Pendley, „Simulation as Theory Building in the Study of International Relations“, unveröff. Manuskript, Northwestern University, Evanston, Ill., 1966a
Elder, C.D. und R.E. Pendley, „An Analysis of Consumption Standards and Validation Satisfaction in the Inter-Nation Simulation in Terms of Contemporary Economic Theory and Data“, unveröff. Manuskript, Northwestern University, Evanston, Ill., 1966b
Feigenbaum, E.A. und J. Feldmann (eds.), Computers and Thought, New York 1963
Fromm, G. und L.R. Klein, „The Brookings-S.S.R.C. Quarterly Economic Model of the United States: Model Properties“, American Economic Review, 55 (1965), 348–361
Frank, P.G. (ed.), The Validation of Scientific Theories, Boston 1954
Funkenstein, D.H., S.H. King und M.E. Drolette, Mastery of Stress, Cambridge, Mass., 1957
Gamson, W.A. und A. Modigliani, „The Carrot and/or the Stick: Soviet Responses to Western Foreign Policy, 1946–53“, in: Peace Research Society (International) Papers, vol. 3 (1965), 47–78
Goldhamer, H. und H. Speier, Some Observations on Political Gaming“, World Politics, 12 (1959–60), 71–83
Gorden, M., „International Relations Theory in the TEMPER Simulation“, unveröff. Manuskript, Cambridge, Mass., 1965
Gorden, M., „International Relations Theory in the TEMPER Simulation“, unveröff. Manuskript, Northwestern University, Evanston, Ill., 1967
Gorden, M., „Burdens for the Designer of a Computer Simulation of International Relations: The Case of TEMPER“, in: D.B. Bobrow und J.L. Schwartz (eds.), Computers and the Policy-Making Community, Englewood Cliffs, N.J., 1968, 222–245
Gregg, P.M. und A.S. Banks, „Dimensions of Political Systems: Factor Analysis of a CrossPolity Survey“, American Political Science Review, 59 (1965), 602–614
Guetzkow, H., „A Use of Simulation in the Study of Inter-Nation Relations“, Behavioral Science, 4 (1959), 183–191;
auch in: H. Guetzkow, C.F. Alger, R.A. Brody, R.C. Noel und R.C. Snyder, Simulation in International Relations: Developments for Research and Teaching, Englewood Cliffs, N.J., 1963a, 24–42, überarbeitete Version als : „Simulation in International Relations“, in: Proceedings of the IBM Scientific Computing Symposium on Simulation Models and Gaming, York, Pa., 1966a, 249–278
Guetzkow, H. (ed.), Simulation in Social Science: Readings, Englewood Cliffs, N.J., 1962
Guetzkow, H., „Structured Programs and Their Relation to Free Activity Within the InterNation Simulation“, in: H. Guetzkow, C.F. Alger, R.A. Brody, R.C. Noel und R.C. Snyder, Simulation in International Relations: Developments for Research and Teaching, Englewood Cliffs, N.J., 1963b, 103–149
Guetzkow, H., „Some Uses of Mathematics in Simulation of International Relations“, in: J.N. Claunch (ed.), Mathematical Applications in Political Science, Dallas, Tex., 1965, 21–40
Guetzkow, H., „Transcending Data-Bound Methods in the Study of Politics, Comment on Professor Deutsch’s Paper“, in: J.C. Charlesworth (ed.), A Design for Political Science: Scope, Objectives, and Methods, Philadelphia, 1966b, 185–191
Guetzkow, H., C.F. Alger, R.A. Brody, R.C. Noel und R.G. Snyder, Simulation in International Relations: Developments for Research and Teaching, Englewood Cliffs, N.J., 1963
Guetzkow, H. and A.E. Bowes, The Development of Organization in a Laboratory“, Management Science, 3 (1957), 380–402
Guetzkow, H., R.A. Brody, M.J. Driver und P.F. Beach, „Am Experiment on the N-Country Problem Through Inter-Nation Simulation“, unveröff. Manuskript, Washington University, St. Louis, Miss., 1960
Gullahorn, J.R. und J.E. Gullahorn, „Some Computer Applications in Social Science“, American Sociological Review, 30 (1965), 353–365
Hamblin, R.L., „The Dynamics of Racial Discrimination“, Social Problems, 10 (1962), 103–121
Harvey, O.J., D.E. Hunt und H.M. Schroder, Conceptual Systems and Personality Organization, New York 1961
Hennessy, B.C., „Psycho-Cultural Studies of National Character: Relevances for International Relations“, Background: Journal of the International Studies Association, 6 (1962), 27–49
Hermann, C.F., „Crisis in Foreign Policy-Making: A Simulation of International Folitres“, unveröff. Diss., Northwestern University, Evanston, Ill., 1965
Hermann, C.F., „Threat, Time, and Surprise: A Simulation of International Crisis“, unveröff. Manuskript, Princeton University, Princeton, N.J., 1967a
Hermann, C.F., „Validation Problems in Games and Simulations with Special Reference to Models of International Politics“, Behavioral Science, 12 (1967b), 216–231 (in diesem Band Kapitel 9)
Hermann, C.F. und M.G. Hermann, „An Attempt to Simulate the Outbreak of World War I“, American Political Science Review, 61 (1967), 400–416 (in diesem Band Kapitel 13)
Hermann, M.G., „Stress, Self-Esteem, and Defensiveness in an Inter-Nation Simulation“, unveröff. Diss., Northwestern University, Evanston, Ill., 1965
Hermann, M.G., „Testing a Model of Psychological Stress“, Journal of Personality, 34 (1966), 381–396
Hilsman, R., The Foreign Policy Consensus: An Interim Research Report“, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 3 (1959), 361–382
Hochberg, H., „Simulation, Models, and Theories“, unveröff. Manuskript, Seminar on Simulation of Human Organizational Systems, 1965
Holsti, O.R., „The 1914 Case“, American Political Science Review, 59 (1965), 365–378
Hosoya, C., „Japan’s Decision for War in 1941“, Hitotsubashi Journal of Law and Politics, 5 (1967), 10–19
Hunt, E.B., J. Martin und P.J. Stone, Experiments in Induction, New York 1966
Janis, I.L., Psychological Stress, New York 1958
Jensen, L., „SovietAmerican Bargaining Behavior in the Post-War Disarmament Negotiations“, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 7 (1963), 522–541
Kahn, H., On Escalation: Metaphors and Scenarios, New York 1965
Kaplan, A., The Conduct of Inquiry: Methodology for Behavioral Science, San Francisco 1964
Kaplan, M., System and Process in International Politics, New York 1957
Katz, D. und R.L. Kahn, The Social Psychology of Organizations, New York 1966
Kelman, H.C. (ed.), International Behavior: A Social-Psychological Analysis, New York 1965
Kennedy, J.L., „The Systems Approach: Organizational Development“, Human Factors, 4 (1962). 25–52
Kissinger, H.A., The Necessity for Choice: Prospects of American Foreign Policy, New York 1961
Klineberg, O. The Human Dimension in International Relations. New York 1964
Kress, P., „On Validating Simulation: With Special Attention to the Simulation of International Politics“, unveröff. Manuskript, Northwestern University, Evanston, Ill., 1966
Larson, D.L., „The Cuban Crisis“ of 1962, Boston 1963
Laulicht, J., „The Vietnam Peace Garne: A Simulation Study of Conflict Resolution“, unveröff. Manuscript, Canadian Peace Research Institute, Clarkson, Ont., 1966
Lazarus, R.S., „A Laboratory Approach to the Dynamics of Psychological Stress“, American Psychologist, 19 (1964), 400–411
Lazarus, R.S. und R.W. Baker, „Personality and Psychological Stress: A Theoretical and Methodological Framework“, Psychology Newsletter, 8 (1956), 21–32
Mack, R.W. und R.C. Snyder, The Analysis of Social Conflict — Toward an Overview and Synthesis“, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 1 (1957), 212–248
MacRae, J. und P. Smoker, „A Vietnam Simulation: A Report on the Canadian/English Joint Project“, Journal of Peace Research, 4 (1967), 1–25
McClintock, C.G., A.A. Harrison, S. Strand und P. Gallo, „Internationalism-Isolationism, Strategy of the Other Player and Two-Person Game Behavior“, Journal of Abnormal Psychology, 67 (1963), 631–636
McPhee, W.N., Formal Theories of Mass Behavior, London 1963, Kap. IV: „Note on a Campaign Simulator“, 169–183
McRae, V.V., „Gaming as a Military Research Procedure“, in: I. de Sola Pool (ed.), Social Science Research and National Security, Washington, D.C., 1963, 188–224
Meier, D.L., „Progress Report: Event Simulation Project“, unveröff. Manuskript, Northwestern University, Evanston, Ill., 1965
Meier, D.L. und A. Stickgold, „Progress Report: Analysis Procedure“, unveroff. Manuskript, Washington University, St. Louis, Miss., 1965
Nardin, T. und N.E. Cutler, „A Seven Variable Study of the Reliability and Validation of Some Patterns of International Interaction in the Inter-Nation Simulation“, unveröff. Manuskript, Northwestern University, Evanston, Ill., 1967
Naylor, T.H., J.L. Balintfy, D.S. Burdick und Kong Chu, Computer Simulation Techntques, New York 1966
Naroll, R. und R. Cohen (eds.), Handbook of Methodology in Cultural Anthropology, New York 1968
Neustadt, R., Presidential Power, New York 1960
Newell, A. und H.A. Simon, „GPS, A Program That Simulates Human Thought“, in: E. Feigenbaum und J. Feldmann (eds.), Computers and Thought, New York 1963, 279–293
Noel, R.C., „A Simplified Political-Economic System Simulation“, unveröff. Manuskript Northwestern University, Evanston, Ill., 1963a
Noel, R.C., „Evaluation of the Inter-Nation Simulation“, in: H. Guetzkow, C.F. Alger, R.A. Brody, R.C. Noel und C. Snyder, Simulation in International Relations: Developments for Research and Teaching, Englewood Cliffs, N.J., 1963b, 69–102
North, R.C., O.R. Holsti, M.G. Zaninovich und D.A. Zinnes, Content Analysis: A Handbook withApplications for the Study of International Crisis, Evanston, Ill., 1963
Pendley, R.E. und C.D. Elder, „An Analysis of Office-Holding in the Inter-Nation Simulation in Terms of Contemporary Political Theory and Data on the Stability of Regimes and Governments“, unveröff. Manuskript, Northwestern University, Evanston, Ill., 1966
Platig, E.R., International Relations Research: Problems of Evaluation and Advancements, New York 1966
Pool, I. de Sola und A. Kessler, „The Kaiser, the Tsar, and the Computer: Information Processing in a Crisis“, American Behavioral Scientist, 8 (1965), 9, 31–38 (in diesem Band Kapitel 5)
Pool, I. de Sola, R.P. Abelson und S.L. Popkin, Candidates, Issues, and Strategies, Cambridge, Mass. 1964
Pruitt, D.G., „Problem Solving in the Department of State“, unveröff. Manuskript, University of Denver, Denver, Col., 1964–65
Raser, J.R., „Personal Characteristics of Political Decision-Makers: A Literature Review“, unveröff. Manuskript, Western Behavioral Sciences Institute, La Jolla, Calif., 1965
Raser, J.R. und W.J. Crow, „Winsafe II: An Inter-Nation Simulation Study of Deterrence Postures Embodying Capacity to Delay Response“, unveröff. Manuscript, Western Behavioral Sciences Institute, La Jolla, Calif., 1964
Robinson, J.A., L.F. Anderson, M.G. Hermann und R.C. Snyder, „Teaching with InterNation Simulation and Case Studies“, American Political Science Review, 60 (1966), 53–65
Rome, B.K. und S.C. Rome, „Leviathan: An Experimental Study of Large Organizations with the Aid of Computers“, in: R.V. Bowers (ed.), Studies on Behavior in Organizations: A Research Symposium, Athens, Ga., 1966, 257–311
Rosenblatt, P.C., „Origins and Effects of Group Ethnocentrism and Nationalism“, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 8 (1964), 131–146
Rummel, R.J., „Dimensions of Conflict Behavior Within and Between Nations“, General Systems, 8 (1963), 1–50
Rummel, R.J., „The Dimensionality of Nations Project“, in: R.L. Merritt and Rokkan (eds.), Comparing Nations: The Use of Quantitative Data in Cross-National Research, New Haven, Conn., 1966a, 109–129
Rummel, R.J., „A Social Field Theory of Foreign Conflict Behavior“, in: Peace Research Society (International) Papers, vol. 4 (1966b), 131–150
Runge, W.A., „Analysis of the Department of State Communications Traffic During a PoliticoMilitary Crisis“, unveröff. Manuscript Stanford Research Institute, Menlo Park. Calif. 1963
Russett, B.M., „Delineating International Regions“, in: J. David Singer (ed.), Quantitative International Politics: Insights and Evidence, New York 1968. 317–352
Schroder, H.M., M.J. Driver und S. Streufert, Human Information Processing, New York 1967
Selye, H., The Stress of Life, New York 1956
Shapiro, M.J., „The House and the Federal Role: A Computer Simulation of Roll Call Voting“, unveröff, Diss., Northwestern University, Evanston, Ill., 1966a
Shapiro, M.J., „Cognitive Rigidity and Moral Judgments in an Inter-Nation Simulation“, unveröff. Manuskript, Northwestern University, Evanston, Ill., 1966b
Sherman, A. W., „The Social Psychology of Bilateral Negotiations“, unveröff. Manuskript, Northwestern University, Evanston, Ill., 1963
Shubik, M. (ed.), Game Theory and Related Approaches to Social Behavior, New York 1964
Shure, G.H., R.J. Meeker und A.A. Hansford, The Effectiveness of Pacifist Strategies in Bargaining Games“, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 9 (1965), 106–117
Simon, H.A., The Architecture of Complexity“, General Systems, 10 (1965). 63–76
Singer, J.D „Data-Making in International Relations“, Behavioral Science, 10 (1965), 68–80
Singer, J.D. und H. Hinomoto, „Inspecting for Weapons Production: A Modest Computer Simulation“, Journal of Peace Research, 2 (1965), 18–38
Skinner, D.D. und R.N. Wells, Jr., „Participant’s Manual: Michigan Inter-Nation Simulation“, unveröff Manuskript, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor. Mich.. 1965
Smoker, P., „Nation-State Escalation and International Integration“, Journal of Peace Research, 4 (1967), 60–75
Smoker, P., „An International Processes Simulation: Theory and Description“, unveröff. Manuskrivt, Northwestern University, Evanston, Ill., 1968
Snyder, R.C., „Some Perspectives in the Use of Experimental Techniques in the Study of International Relations“, in: H. Guetzkow, C.F. Alger, R.A. Brody, R.C. Noel und R.C. Snyder, Simulation in International Relations: Developments for Research and Teaching, Englewood Cliffs, N.J., 1963, 1–23
Snyder, R.C. und G.D. Paige, „The United States Decision to Resist Aggression in Korea: The Application of an Analytical Scheine“, Administrative Science Quarterly, 3 (1958), 341–378
Solomon, L.N., „Simulation Research in International Decision-Making“, in: G. Sperrazzo (ed.), Psychology and International Relations, Washington, D.C., 1965, 37–52
Sprout, H. und M. Sprout, The Ecological Perspective on Human Affairs: With Special Reference to International Politics, Princeton, N.J., 1965
Streufert, S.P. Suedfeld und M.J. Driver, „Conceptual Structure, Information Search, and Information Utilization“, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 2 (1965), 736–740
Streufert, M.A. Clardy, M.J. Driver, M. Karlins, H.M. Schroder und P. Suedfeld, „A Tactical Game for the Analysis of Complex Decision-Making in Individuals and Groups“, Psychological Reports, 17 (1965), 723–729
Stone, R., „British Economic Balances in 1970“, in: R. Stone (ed.), Mathematics in the Social Sciences and Other Essays, Cambridge, Mass., 1966, 249–282
Sullivan, D.G., „Towards an Inventory of Major Propositions Contained in Contemporary Textbooks in International Relations“, unveröff. Diss., Northwestern University, Evanston, Ill., 1963
Tanter, R., „Dimensions of Conflict Behavior Within and Between Nations, 1958–60“, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 10 (1966), 41–64
Tanter, R., „Toward a Theory of Political Development“, Midwest Journal of Political Science, 11 (1967), 145–172
Targ, H. und T. Nardin, „The Inter-Nation Simulation as a Predictor of Contemporary Events“, unveröff. Manuskript, Northwestern University, Evanston, Ill., 1965
TEMPER: Technological, Economic, Military, and Political Evaluation Routine, Bedford, Mass., Raytheon Company, vol. 1–7, 1965–1966
Thompson, J.D. und R.W. Hawkes, „Disaster, Community Organization, and Administrative Process“, in: G.W. Baker und D.W. Chapman (eds.), Man and Society in Disaster, New York, 1962, 268–300
Thorelli, H.B. und R.L. Graves, International Operations Simulation with Comments on Design and Use of Management Games, New York 1964
Tomkins, S.S. und S.L. Messick (eds.), Computer Simulation of Personality, New York 1963
Tucker, L.R. und S.L. Messick, „An Individual Differences Model for Multi-Dimensional Scaling“ Psychometrika 28 (1963) 333–367
Verba, S., „Simulation, Reality, and Theory in International Relations“, World Politics, 16 (1964), 490–519
Webb, E.J., D.T. Campbell, R.D. Schwartz und L. Sechrest, Unobtrusive Measures: Nonreactive Research in the Social Sciences, Chicago 1966
Wright O., A Study of War, Chicago 1942; rev. ed., 1965
Zelditch, M., Jr. und T.K. Hopkins, „Laboratory Experiments with Organizations“, in: A. Etzioni (ed.), Complex Organizations: A Sociological Reader, New York 1961, 464–478
Zinnes, D.A., „Support of Simulation Studies Through a Parallel Historical Study“, unveröff. Manuskript, 1964
Zinnes, D.A., „A Comparison of Hostile Behavior of Decision-Makers in Simulate and Historical Data“, World Politics, 18 (1965–66), 474–502
Zinnes, D.A., R.C. North und H.E. Koch, „Capabilities, Threat, and Outbreak of War“, in: J.A. Rosenau (ed.), International Politics and Foreign Policy, New York 1961, 469–482
Editor information
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 1972 Westdeutscher Verlag Opladen
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Guetzkow, H. (1972). Die Frage der Übereinstimmung von Realität und Simulationen Internationaler Beziehungen. In: Kern, L., Rönsch, HD. (eds) Simulation internationaler Prozesse. Politische Vierteljahresschrift Sonderheft 3/1971, vol 3/1971. VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften, Wiesbaden. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-663-00203-1_10
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-663-00203-1_10
Publisher Name: VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften, Wiesbaden
Print ISBN: 978-3-663-00053-2
Online ISBN: 978-3-663-00203-1
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive