Abstract
Monitoring of Norovirus in drinking water supply is a complicated, rather expensive, process. Norovirus represent a leading cause of acute gastroenteritis in most developed countries. Modeling of general microbial occurrence in drinking water is a very active field of study and provides reliable information for predicting microbial risks in drinking water. In this work, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and Gaussian Process for Machine Learning (GPML) are proposed as predicting models for the total number of Norovirus in raw surface water in terms of water quality parameters such as water pH, turbidity, conductivity, temperature and rain. The predictive models were based on data from Nødre Romrike Vannverk water treatment plant in Oslo, Norway. Based on the model performance indices used in this study, the GPML model showed comparable accuracy to the ANFIS model. However, the ANFIS model generally demonstrated more superior prediction ability of the number of Norovirus in drinking water, with lower MSE and MAE values relative to the GPML model. In addition, the ability of the ANFIS model to explain potential effects of interactions among the water quality variables on the number of Norovirus in the raw water makes the technique more efficient for use in water quality modeling.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Ahmed, S.M., Hall, A.J., Robinson, A.E., Verhoef, L., Premkumar, P., Parashar, U.D.: Global prevalence of norovirus in cases of gastroenteritis: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Lancet Infect. Dis. 14(8), 725–730 (2014)
Brion, G.M., Neelakantan, T.R., Lingireddy, S.: Using neural networks to predict peak Cryptosporidium concentrations. J. Am. Water Works Assoc. (AWWA) 93(1), 99–105 (2001)
Bartsch, S.M., Lopman, B.A., Ozawa, S., Hall, A.J., Lee, B.Y.: Global economic burden of norovirus gastroenteritis. PLoS One 11(4), e0151219 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0151219
Altintas, Z., Gittens, M., Pocock, J., Tothill, I.E.: Biosensors for waterborne viruses: detection and removal. Biochimie 115(2015), 144–154 (2015)
Wigginton, K.R., Kohn, T.: Virus disinfection mechanisms: the role of virus composition, structure, and function. Curr. Opin. Virol. 2(1), 84–89 (2012)
Xagoraraki, I., Yin, Z., Svambayev, Z.: Fate of viruses in water systems. J. Environ. Eng. 140(7), 04014020 (2014)
da Silva, A.K., Le Saux, J.C., Parnaudeau, S., Pommepuy, M., Elimelech, M., Le Guyader, F.S.: Evaluation of removal of noroviruses during wastewater treatment, using real-time reverse transcription-PCR: different behaviors of genogroups I and II. Appl. Environ. Microbiol. 73(24), 7891–7897 (2007)
Laverick, M.A., Wyn-Jones, A.P., Carter, M.J.: Quantitative RT-PCR for the enumeration of noroviruses (Norwalk-like viruses) in water and sewage. Lett. Appl. Microbiol. 39(2), 127–136 (2004)
Westrell, T., Teunis, P., van den Berg, H., Lodder, W., Ketelaars, H., Stenström, T.A., de Roda Husman, A.M.: Short-and long-term variations of norovirus concentrations in the Meuse River during a 2-year study period. Water Res. 40(14), 2613–2620 (2006)
Barrett, M., Fitzhenry, K., O’Flaherty, V., Dore, W., Keaveney, S., Cormican, M., Clifford, E.: Detection, fate and inactivation of pathogenic norovirus employing settlement and UV treatment in wastewater treatment facilities. Sci. Total Environ. 568, 1026–1036 (2016)
Lodder, W.J., de Roda Husman, A.M.: Presence of noroviruses and other enteric viruses in sewage and surface waters in The Netherlands. Appl. Environ. Microbiol. 71(3), 1453–1461 (2005)
Ueki, Y., Sano, D., Watanabe, T., Akiyama, K., Omura, T.: Norovirus pathway in water environment estimated by genetic analysis of strains from patients of gastroenteritis, sewage, treated wastewater, river water and oysters. Water Res. 39(18), 4271–4280 (2005)
Chen, H., Hu, Y.: Molecular diagnostic methods for detection and characterization of human noroviruses. Open Microbiol. J. 10(1), 78–89 (2016)
Lermontov, A., Yokoyama, L., Lermontov, M., Machado, M.A.S.: River quality analysis using fuzzy water quality index: Riberia do Iguape river watershed, Brazil. Ecol. Indic. 9(2009), 1188–1197 (2009)
Andreas, T., Olof, B., Bertil, F.: Precipitation effects on microbial pollution in a river: lag structures and seasonal effect modification. PLoS One 9(5), e98546 (2014)
Bruggink, L.D., Marshall, J.A.: Norovirus epidemics are linked to two distinct sets of controlling factors. Int. J. Infect. Dis. 13(2009), e125–e126 (2009)
Sokolova, E., Pettersson, T.J.R., Bergstedt, O., Hermansson, M.: Hydrodynamic modelling of the microbial water quality in a drinking water source as input for risk reduction management. J. Hydrol. 497(2013), 15–23 (2013)
Icaga, Y.: Fuzzy evaluation of water quality classification. Ecol. Ind. 7(2007), 710–718 (2007)
Petterson, S.R., Stenström, T.A., Ottoson, J.: A theoretical approach to using faecal indicator data to model norovirus concentration in surface water for QMRA: Glomma River, Norway. Water Res. 91, 31–37 (2016)
Marshall, J.A., Bruggink, L.D.: The dynamics of norovirus outbreak epidemics: recent insights. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 8(4), 1141–1149 (2011). https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph8041141
Mohammed, H., Hameed, I.A., Seidu, R.: Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system for predicting norovirus in drinking water supply. In: International Conference on Informatics, Health & Technology (ICIHT), pp. 1–6. IEEE (2017)
Bisht, D.C.S., Jangid, A.: Discharge modelling using adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system. Int. J. Adv. Sci. Technol. 31(2011), 99–114 (2011)
Chowdhury, S., Champagne, P., McLellan, P.J.: Models for predicting disinfection by product (DBP) formation in drinking waters: a chronological review. Sci. Total Environ. 407(14), 4189–4206 (2009)
Heddam, S., Bermad, A., Dechemi, N.: ANFIS-based modelling for coagulant dosage in drinking water treatment plant: a case study. Environ. Monit. Assess. 184(4), 1953–1971 (2012)
Sahu, M., Mahapatra, S.S., Sahu, H.B., Patel, R.K.: Prediction of water quality index using neuro fuzzy inference system. Water Qual. Exposure Health 3(3–4), 175–191 (2011)
Jang, J.S.R.: ANFIS: adaptive network-based fuzzy inference systems. IEEE Trans. Syst. Man Cybern. 23(1993), 665–685 (1993)
Negnevitsky, M.: Artifial Intelligence: A Guide to Intelligent Systems, 3rd edn., pp. 277–285. Pearson (2005)
VISK. http://www.norskvann.no/, http://www.nrva.no/, http://visk.nu/. Accessed Oct 2016
Grøndahl-Rosado, R.C., Tryland, I., Myrmel, M., Aanes, K.J., Robertson, L.J.: Detection of microbial pathogens and indicators in sewage effluent and river water during the temporary interruption of a wastewater treatment plant. Water Qual. Exposure Health 4(3), 155–159 (2014)
Rasmussen, C.E., Williams, C.K.I.: Gaussian Processes for Machine Learning. The MIT Press, Cambridge (2006)
Nickischm, H., Rasmussen, C.E.: Approximations for binary Gaussian process classification. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 9, 2035–2078 (2008)
Rasmussen, C.E., Williams, C.K.I.: Gaussian Process for Machine Learning. The MIT Press (2006). ISBN 026218253X, Matlab code version 4.0 http://gaussianprocess.org/gpml/code/matlab/doc/index.html. Accessed 15 Apr 2017
Acknowledgements
The authors wish to thank the managers of the Nødre Romrike Water Treatment Plant in Oslo for the provision of required data. Thanks to Ricardo Rosado and Mette Myrmel for providing the Norovirus data. This work is part of the project KLIMAFORSK funded by the Research Council of Norway (Project No: 244147/E10). The authors would like to express their sincere thanks to the editor and anonymous reviewers for their suggestions and comments to improve the quality of the paper.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2017 Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Mohammed, H., Hameed, I.A., Seidu, R. (2017). Comparison of Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and Gaussian Process for Machine Learning (GPML) Algorithms for the Prediction of Norovirus Concentration in Drinking Water Supply. In: Hameurlain, A., Küng, J., Wagner, R., Sakr, S., Razzak, I., Riyad, A. (eds) Transactions on Large-Scale Data- and Knowledge-Centered Systems XXXV. Lecture Notes in Computer Science(), vol 10680. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-56121-8_4
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-56121-8_4
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-662-56120-1
Online ISBN: 978-3-662-56121-8
eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)