Skip to main content

Six tools for scenario-based strategic planning and their application

  • Chapter
  • First Online:
Scenario-based Strategic Planning

Abstract

Scenario planning has often been criticized for the complexity that arises when it is grafted into a company's overall strategic planning process. To overcome this deficiency, we introduced the scenario-based approach to strategic planning in the previous chapter. This chapter explains each tool in detail, evaluates its practicability and demonstrates how executives can immediately apply the entire toolkit within their overall strategic planning process. To facilitate the application of the tools, each step is explained using a practical example from the European airline industry. Taken together, the detailed explanations that follow present a scenariobased strategic planning framework that can help companies cope with an uncertain, complex and volatile business environment.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 54.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 59.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 69.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  • Ansoff I. 1975. Managing Strategic Surprise by Response to Weak Signals. California Management Review 18(2): 21–33.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ansoff I. 1965. Corporate Strategy. New York: McGraw-Hill.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ansoff, I., Nakamura G. 2007. Strategic Management. Houndmills: Palgrave Macmillan

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Bradfield RM., Wright G., Burt G., Cairns G., van der Heijden K. 2005. The Origins and Evolution of Scenario Techniques in long Range Business Planning, Futures 37(8): 795–812.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chermack TJ. 2011. Scenario Planning in Organizations – How to Create, Use, and Assess Scenarios. San Francisco: Berrett-Koehler.

    Google Scholar 

  • De Wit, B., Meyer, R.J.H. 2010. Strategy Process, Content, Context: an international perspective 4th ed. London: Cengage Learning, 2010,

    Google Scholar 

  • Gausemeier J., Plass C., Wenzelmann C. 2009. Zukunftsorientierte Unternehmensgestaltung: Strategien, Geschäftsprozesse und IT-Systeme für die Produktion von Morgen. Munich: Hanser.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hungenberg H. 2010. Problemlösung und Kommunikation im Management: Vorgehensweisen und Techniken. Munich: Oldenbourg:

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Krampe G. 1985. Ein Früherkennungssystem auf der Basis von Diffusionsfunktionen als Element des strategischen Marketing. In Strategisches Marketing. Raffée H., Wiedmann K.-P. (eds.). Stuttgart: Poeschel: 349–369.

    Google Scholar 

  • Krystek U., Moldenhauer R. 2007. Handbuch Krisen- und Restrukturierungsmanagement – Generelle Konzepte, Spezialprobleme, Praxisbeispiele. Stuttgart: Kohlhammer.

    Google Scholar 

  • Liebl F. 2005. Technologie – Frühaufklärung: Bestandsaufnahme und Perspektiven. Handbuch Technologie- und Innovationsmanagement: Strategie – Umsetzung – Controlling. Alber S., Gassmann O. eds.(.) Wiesbaden: Gabler: 121–136.

    Google Scholar 

  • Liebl F. 2002. The Anatomy of Complex Societal Problems and its Implications for OR. Journal of the Operational Research Society 53(2): 161–184.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lindgren M., Bandhold H. 2009. Scenario Planning – The Link Between Future and Strategy. Houndmills: Palgrave Macmillan.

    Google Scholar 

  • Metz B., Davidson OR., Bosch PR., Dave R., Meyer LA. 2007. Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mintzberg H. 1994a. The Rise and Fall of Strategic Planning. New York: The Free Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mintzberg H. 1994b. The Fall and Rise of Strategic Planning. Harvard Business Review 72(1): 107–114.

    Google Scholar 

  • Schwartz P. 1996. The Art of the Long View. Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World. New York: Doubleday Publishing.

    Google Scholar 

  • van der Heijden K. 2005. Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation. Chichester: Wiley.

    Google Scholar 

  • van der Heijden K., Bradfield R., Burt G., Cairns G., Wright G. 2002: The Sixth Sense – Accelerating Organizational Learning with Scenarios. Chichester John Wiley & Sons.

    Google Scholar 

  • van ’t Klooster SA., van Asselt, MBA. 2006. Practicing the scenario-axes technique. Futures 38(1): 15–30.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wack P. 1985a. Scenarios: Uncharted waters ahead. Harvard Business Review 63(5): 73–89.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wack P. 1985b. Scenarios: Shooting the Rapids. Harvard Business Review 63(6): 139–150.

    Google Scholar 

  • Welsch C. 2010. Organisationale Trägheit und ihre Wirkung auf die strategische Früherkennung von Unternehmenskrisen. Wiesbaden: Gabler.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Wright G., Cairns G. 2011. Scenario Thinking: Practical Approaches to the Future. Houndmills: Palgrave MacMillan.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Wilson, I. 2006. Scenario Planning Handbook: Developing Strategies in Uncertain Times. Mason: Thomson South Western

    Google Scholar 

  • Wulf, T., Stubner, S., Meißner, P., Brands, C. 2012. Szenariobasierte strategische Planung in volatilen Umfeldern. Zeitschrift für Controlling und Management special issue 2/2012: 34–38.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wulf T., Meißner P., Stubner S. 2010. A Scenario-based Approach to Strategic Planning – Integrating Planning and Process Perspectives of Strategy. Leipzig: HHL Working Paper.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2013 Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Brands, C., Wulf, T., Meissner, P. (2013). Six tools for scenario-based strategic planning and their application. In: Schwenker, B., Wulf, T. (eds) Scenario-based Strategic Planning. Roland Berger School of Strategy and Economics. Springer Gabler, Wiesbaden. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-02875-6_4

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics