Abstract
This work refers to alarm systems based on the combination of different short-term precursors Fl, F2,⋯ Fn, related to the probability that a disastrous event E may occur soon. Combining two or more precursors means that alarm A is issued only if two or more, out of the monitored precursors, overlap.
The theory of independent precursors is first summarized. Then the influence of non-independence is discussed. For the sake of simplicity, the discussion is limited to a double-precursor system.
Non-independence of false alarms in the precursors and non-independence of successful alarms play quite different roles. Non-independence of false alarms has unfavourable influence on the effectiveness of the doubleprecursor system, while non-independence of successful alarms always leads to an increase in this effectiveness.
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© 1992 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
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Grandori, G., Guagenti, E. (1992). Short-Term Precursors of Natural Disastrous Events: A Statistical Assessment. In: Gasparini, P., Scarpa, R., Aki, K. (eds) Volcanic Seismology. IAVCEI Proceedings in Volcanology, vol 3. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-77008-1_2
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-77008-1_2
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
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