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Modeling and Forecasting International Arrivals from China to Australia

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Proceedings of the Eighth International Conference on Management Science and Engineering Management

Part of the book series: Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing ((AISC,volume 281))

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Abstract

China has risen to second ranking source of Australia’s international tourists by the end of 2012. In term of market share, Chinese represented about 7.69 % international arrivals to Australia in 2012. This paper undertake a statistical analysis of inbound tourism arrivals to Australia from China. In particular, ARIMA model will be estimated by tourist arrivals quarter data from \(Q\)1 1995 to \(Q4\) 2009 and validated by \(Q1\) 2010 to \(Q2\) 2013. The expected outcomes is the determination of a statistically optimal time series model of Australia tourism demand, which will provide a better understanding of the importance of the Chinese tourist market for Australia, and provide a practice quarterly forecast with confidence 95 % on international tourist arrivals from China to Australia between Quarter3 2013 and Qutarter4 2016. Such knowledge will aid in tourism planning by private and public sectors to achieve efficient development and management of tourism facilities and infrastructure.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. International Business, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai, 519087, People’s Republic of China

    Zheng Yong

  2. Business and Economics, Monash university, Melbourne, 3000, Australia

    Robert Brook

Authors
  1. Zheng Yong
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  2. Robert Brook
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Zheng Yong .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Business School, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China

    Jiuping Xu

  2. Depart de Enge Mecânica e Industrial, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia - Universidade Nova de Lisboa (FCT/UNL), Caparica, Portugal

    Virgílio António Cruz-Machado

  3. LeBow College of Business Department of Decision Sciences, Drexel University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA

    Benjamin Lev

  4. Institute of Operations Research, Karlsruhe Institute ofTechnology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany

    Stefan Nickel

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© 2014 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

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Yong, Z., Brook, R. (2014). Modeling and Forecasting International Arrivals from China to Australia. In: Xu, J., Cruz-Machado, V., Lev, B., Nickel, S. (eds) Proceedings of the Eighth International Conference on Management Science and Engineering Management. Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, vol 281. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-55122-2_85

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-55122-2_85

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  • Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-642-55121-5

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-642-55122-2

  • eBook Packages: EngineeringEngineering (R0)

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