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Temporal Distribution and Trend Prediction of Agricultural Drought Disasters in China

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Proceedings of the Eighth International Conference on Management Science and Engineering Management

Part of the book series: Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing ((AISC,volume 281))

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Abstract

China is one of the countries where agricultural drought disasters occur particularly frequently. The prediction of agricultural drought disasters plays an important role in the drought disaster defense and reduction. This paper, based on the agricultural drought disaster statistics between 1978 and 2011 years in China, analyzed the temporal distribution characters of agricultural drought disasters during the period from 1978 to 2011 in China. It can be seen from the analysis that agricultural natural disasters fluctuated in the research period. Three phases can be evidently indicated: the drought disasters had lower harm to agriculture in the 1978–1984; great disaster influenced area and losses increased evidently in the 1985–2000; the drought disasters had lower harm to agriculture in the period of 2001–2011, except for the year of 2001. Based upon the topologic predicting method of grey system theory, this paper established predicting models. Through applying these models in fact, it is testified that topologic prediction is an effective method that can predict the sequences with wide fluctuating range. This paper also predicted the changing trend of agricultural drought disasters in 15 years in China. It found that heavy agricultural drought disaster will occur in all the 15 years except for 2012 and 2022. The trend of disaster-suffering will be over the average levels in the past 34 years and will appear 4 year of great drought respectively 2015, 2017, 2020 and 2025. At the same time, the interval time of the great drought is between 3 and 5 years.

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Acknowledgments

This research was supported by the National Social Science Foundation of P. R. China (No. 11XMZ069), Scientific and Technological Project of Gansu Province (No. 1205ZCRA193, 1405ZCRA167) and Northwest University for Nationalities “Young and middle-aged project”.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Management, Northwest University for Nationalities, Gansu, 730030, People’s Republic of China

    Zongtang Xie

  2. School of Economics, Northwest University for Nationalities, Gansu, 730030, People’s Republic of China

    Hongxia Liu

Authors
  1. Zongtang Xie
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  2. Hongxia Liu
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Hongxia Liu .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Business School, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China

    Jiuping Xu

  2. Depart de Enge Mecânica e Industrial, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia - Universidade Nova de Lisboa (FCT/UNL), Caparica, Portugal

    Virgílio António Cruz-Machado

  3. LeBow College of Business Department of Decision Sciences, Drexel University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA

    Benjamin Lev

  4. Institute of Operations Research, Karlsruhe Institute ofTechnology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany

    Stefan Nickel

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Xie, Z., Liu, H. (2014). Temporal Distribution and Trend Prediction of Agricultural Drought Disasters in China. In: Xu, J., Cruz-Machado, V., Lev, B., Nickel, S. (eds) Proceedings of the Eighth International Conference on Management Science and Engineering Management. Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, vol 281. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-55122-2_83

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-55122-2_83

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  • Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-642-55121-5

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-642-55122-2

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