Research and Design of Vegetable Price Spatial-Temporal Transmission Simulation

Abstract

To explore vegetable price space, time transmission mechanism and to simulate, which is important to reveal vegetable price fluctuation and slow down vegetable price ups and downs substantially. The paper takes six vegetables’ price as example, and selects 108 field markets, wholesale markets and retail markets that scatter Beijing, Shandong and Hainan etc., and collects price data every day, and establishes spatial-temporal set of vegetable price. The paper using factor analysis method explores the reason, character and influencing factors of vegetable price spatial-temporal transmission, and finds mechanism and constructs network topology. The paper, using correlation test, cointegration test, partial adjustment model, Granger causality test and finite distributed lag model and etc., analyses relation, route and strength of vegetable price spatial-temporal transmission, and constructs its model. The paper develops real-time dynamic simulation and display by component technology and GIS analysis. To clarify multidimensional dynamic conduction mode of vegetable price spatial-temporal transmission by regions, markets and varieties, in order to promote vegetable produce, ensure market supply and stable vegetable price.

Project Support: “Twelfth Five-Year plan” Science and technology support program “The key technology research and demonstration of management and information service matching of agricultural production and market circulation” (Project number:2012BAH20B04), 2013 Ministry of Agriculture, Agriculture monitoring and early warning information system project.