Evaluating Catastrophe Risk of Cold Damage for Crop Production at the Provincial Scale in China

Abstract

This study presents a methodology for risk assessment of cold damage catastrophe to crop production at the provincial scale in China based on Block maxima model (BMM). The assessment method of cold damage catastrophe risk combine crop loss collection, Monte Carlo simulation, generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) fitting, and risk calculation. It is shown that the Type III Extreme distribution (Weibull) has a weighted advantage of modeling cold damage catastrophe risk for crop production. The impact of cold damage catastrophe to crop production in China was relatively serious, and very high or high risk of cold damage catastrophe mainly concentrates on the southwest and northwest regions as well as the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River in China. Given the scenario of suffering once-in-a-century cold damage, the crop-production loss ratios for 30 provinces in China vary from 5 to 10 %, which represents a high probability of occurrence; and the probability of 5–10 % reduction of crop output actually exceeds 70 % especially for Inner Mongolia, Hunan, Jiangsu, and Hubei provinces. The results obtained in this study can provide multifaceted information about cold damage catastrophe risk that can help to guide management of cold damage catastrophe.