Abstract
[Purpose] County-level catastrophic risk assessment of crops in Northeast China caused by flood was performed on the combination of extreme storm precipitation and flood vulnerability function of crops under the support of historical flood-affected records of crops, time serials of annual crops’ planting area, time serials of daily precipitation from weather stations and digital elevation model. [Methods] With Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) method, daily precipitation for county can be interpolated by daily precipitations from its adjacent three weather stations. With bivariate regression, flood vulnerability function of crops among the variables of crops’ flood-affected ratio, storm precipitation and average terrain of county was built; Using Block Maximum Method (BMM), annual extreme storm precipitations can be extracted from daily precipitation. Combined with flood vulnerability function, annual extreme flood-affected ratios of crops can be worked out. Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution was applied in constructing probability density function (PDF) of extreme flood-affected ratio of crops. Based on the PDF, expectation and VaR were used to measure catastrophic risk, and then the county-level risk maps under average condition, 20-years return, 50-years return and 100-years return scenarios were generated. [Results] In general, the catastrophic risk of Liaoning is highest, and then Heilongjian and Jilin. In space, there exits four high-risk zones in which the first two highest locates in the east and the center of Liaoning, the third highest locates in the mid-west of Heilongjian, and the last highest locates in the center of Jilin.
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Acknowledgements
This study was funded by Natural Science Foundation of China (40901274), Basic Scientific Research Project of Nonprofit Central Research Institutions (2013-J-014) and Key Projects in the National Science & Technology Pillar Program during the Twelfth Five-year Plan Period (2012BAH20B04), and the financial supports are gratefully acknowledged.
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Zhao, S., Zhang, Q. (2014). County-Level Catastrophic Risk Assessment of Crops Caused by Flood in Northeast China. In: Xu, S. (eds) Proceedings of 2013 World Agricultural Outlook Conference. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-54389-0_12
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-54389-0_12
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