Abstract
Estimation of the magnitude and the course of an ongoing epidemic like AIDS, from reported surveillance data is severely hampered by missing data. This is true for estimation of the present incidence, and certainly also for expected future incidences. However, policy makers and health care planners do also ask for quantitative information for the present and the future. In this paper we give an overview of methods used in the last few years for AIDS data, and apply a method proposed by Heisterkamp et al (Heisterkamp et al, 1989) on a simple mathematical model for describing the AIDS epidemic.
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References
Downs, A. M., Ancelle, R. A., Jager, J. C., Heisterkamp, S. H., Druten J. A. M. van, Ruitenberg, E. J., and Brunet, J.-B. ‘The statistical estimation, from routine surveillance data, of past, present and future trends in AIDS incidence in Europe‛, in Jager, J.C. and Ruitenberg, E.J. (eds.) ‘Statistical Analysis and Mathematical Modelling of AIDS’, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 1988, 1–16.
Healy M.J.R. and Tillett, H.E. ‘Short-term extrapolation of the AIDS epidemic‛, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, 151, 50–61 (1988).
Heisterkamp, S. H., Jager, J. C., Ruitenberg, E. J., Druten, J. A. M. van, and Downs, A. M. ‘Correcting reported AIDS incidence: A statistical approach’, Statistics in Medicine, vol.8, 963–976 (1989).
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© 1990 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
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Heisterkamp, S.H., Poos, M.J.J.C., Jager, J.C. (1990). Prediction of AIDS Cases from Reported Surveillance Data. In: Giani, G., Repges, R. (eds) Biometrie und Informatik — neue Wege zur Erkenntnisgewinnung in der Medizin. Medizinische Informatik und Statistik, vol 71. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-48167-3_4
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-48167-3_4
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