The Contribution of Bayesian Networks to Manage Risks of Maritime Piracy against Oil Offshore Fields

Abstract

In recent years pirate attacks against shipping and oil fields have continued to increase in quantity and severity. For example, the attack against the Exxon Mobil oil rig in 2010 off the coast of Nigeria ended in the kidnap of 19 crew members and a reduction in daily oil production of 45,000 barrels, which resulted in an international rise in the price of oil. This example is a perfect illustration of current weaknesses in existing anti-piracy systems. The SARGOS project proposes an innovative system to address this problem. It takes into account the entire threat treatment process; from the detection of a potential threat to implementation of the response. The response to an attack must take into account all of the many parameters related to the threat, the potential target, the available protection resources, environmental constraints, etc. To manage these parameters, the power of Bayesian networks is harnessed to identify potential countermeasures and the means to manage them.