Abstract
The new demographic phase of Turkey is characterized by the low level of fertility and declined mortality. At a rate of 2.16, the fertility is now very close to the replacement level. Social and economic development, the increase in educational level and urbanization, accompanied by attitudinal changes as well as the effect of economic and social globalization have been the underlying factors in the persistent decline of fertility in Turkey. As regards the proximate determinants that have played a direct role on the reduction of fertility, mechanisms of fertility control through increased and effective use of contraception and postponement of marriages have been the fundamental factors. As a result of the primary demographic consequence of fertility decline, combined with a rise in life expectancy, a rapid increase in the absolute numbers and proportions of the elderly will be the future outcome that the country will face. Besides, the young age (0–14) population is expected to stabilize and the size of the economically productive age group to increase doubling within the next two or three decades. However, despite the potential for rapid ageing that will produce high demands on social and economic life, the increase in the numbers of economically productive age group will present a demographic window of opportunity, provided that appropriate economic and social policies are realized.
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Notes
- 1.
Total fertility rate is the total number of children a woman would have in her lifetime if she were to experience the prevailing age-specific birth rates assuming hypothetically that she survives until the end of her childbearing years.
- 2.
More specifically, the Bongaarts (1978) model expresses the actual level of fertility, measured by the total fertility rate, as the outcome of the fertility-inhibiting effects of proximate determinants on fertility. It explains variation in fertility by looking at a relatively small number of intermediate fertility variables, including proportion married, contraceptive use, incidence of induced abortion, and postpartum insusceptibility as affected by breastfeeding practices.
- 3.
The median duration of postpartum insusceptibility is 3.9 months. Of the two components of postpartum insusceptibility, the median duration of postpartum amenorrhea (3.6 months) is longer than that of postpartum abstinence (1.7 months) (HÜNEE 2010).
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Ergöçmen, B. (2012). Demographic Profile of Turkey: Specifics and Challenges. In: Groth, H., Sousa-Poza, A. (eds) Population Dynamics in Muslim Countries. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-27881-5_8
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