Application of stochastic models to rational management of water resources at the Damasi Titanos karstic aquifer in Thessaly Greece

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Abstract

Several stochastic models, known as Box and Jenkins or SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) have been used in the past for forecasting hydrological time series in general and stream flow or spring discharge time series in particular. SARIMA models became very popular because of their simple mathematical structure, convenient representation of data in terms of a relatively small number of parameters and their applicability to stationary as well as nonstationary process. The application of SARIMA model to the Mati spring’s monthly discharge time series for the period 1974-2007 at Damasi Titanos karst system yielded the following results. The stationary is obtained by logarithmic transformation and the suitable model (2,0,0)(0,1,1)12 is selected by different criteria. This type of model is suitable for the Damasi Titanos karst aquifer simulation and can be utilised as a tool to forecast monthly discharge values at Mati spring for at least a 4 year period. SARIMA model seem to be capable of simulating both runoff and groundwater flow conditions on a karst system and also easily adapt to their natural conditions.