Advances in the Research of Aquatic Environment
Part of the series Environmental Earth Sciences pp 435442
Application of stochastic models to rational management of water resources at the Damasi Titanos karstic aquifer in Thessaly Greece
 A. ManakosAffiliated withIGME
 , P. GeorgiouAffiliated withDepartment of Hydraulics, Soil Science and Agricultural Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki
 , I. MouratidisAffiliated withVoulgaroktonou
Abstract
Several stochastic models, known as Box and Jenkins or SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) have been used in the past for forecasting hydrological time series in general and stream flow or spring discharge time series in particular. SARIMA models became very popular because of their simple mathematical structure, convenient representation of data in terms of a relatively small number of parameters and their applicability to stationary as well as nonstationary process. The application of SARIMA model to the Mati spring’s monthly discharge time series for the period 19742007 at Damasi Titanos karst system yielded the following results. The stationary is obtained by logarithmic transformation and the suitable model (2,0,0)(0,1,1)12 is selected by different criteria. This type of model is suitable for the Damasi Titanos karst aquifer simulation and can be utilised as a tool to forecast monthly discharge values at Mati spring for at least a 4 year period. SARIMA model seem to be capable of simulating both runoff and groundwater flow conditions on a karst system and also easily adapt to their natural conditions.
 Title
 Application of stochastic models to rational management of water resources at the Damasi Titanos karstic aquifer in Thessaly Greece
 Book Title
 Advances in the Research of Aquatic Environment
 Book Subtitle
 Volume 1
 Pages
 pp 435442
 Copyright
 2011
 DOI
 10.1007/9783642199028_51
 Print ISBN
 9783642199011
 Online ISBN
 9783642199028
 Series Title
 Environmental Earth Sciences
 Publisher
 Springer Berlin Heidelberg
 Copyright Holder
 SpringerVerlag Berlin Heidelberg
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 Editors

 Nicolaos Lambrakis ^{(1)}
 George Stournaras ^{(2)}
 Konstantina Katsanou ^{(1)}
 Editor Affiliations

 1. Department of Geology, Laboratory of Hydrogeology, University of Patras
 2. Faculty of Geology and Geoenvironment, University of Athens
 Authors

 A. Manakos ^{(4)}
 P. Georgiou ^{(5)}
 I. Mouratidis ^{(6)}
 Author Affiliations

 4. IGME, 1 Frangon, 54626, Thessaloniki, Greece
 5. Department of Hydraulics, Soil Science and Agricultural Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124, Thessaloniki, Greece
 6. Voulgaroktonou, 50100, Kozani, Greece
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