Abstract
On December 1, 2008, flood waters inundated Venice once more, reaching a 20-year high of 156 cm above normal. The event scared tourists a lot more than Venetians. They have learned to adapt. Of course, Venetian authorities have seen it coming for 20 years. A massive flood barrier has been planned for decades. It was due to become operational in 2011, but financial problems once again have delayed installation by a perennial couple of years. The flood barrier is known by the apt biblical acronym MOSES. Venice is full of biblical reminders and works of art referring to doom and salvation abound. In fact, Venice has been a city of doom and salvation long before the floods started to become serious. It lost its position as a global power two centuries ago. It lost two thirds of its population in the past century and now it seems to be sinking for good. No wonder that many books have been written on the death of Venice. Yet, the city survives. Visitors keep coming in droves and Venice seems to be a place of merry wealth rather than sad poverty. The city has been courting doom for ages, yet it seems splendidly sustainable in the sense of being able to adapt resiliently. They turned doom into their own brand of sustainability. The fate of Venice invites reflection on the essence of doom and thereby the essence of sustainability. It provides an admittedly crude, yet appropriately warning, symbol for Europe’s future. The Venetian story is a harsh reminder, that Europe must develop its own brand of sustainability. The Venetian story also tells that sustainability may have more to do with surviving doom smartly than with attaining salvation purposefully. How doom and sustainability are intimately connected, and what this implies for a European brand of sustainability, are in fact the major themes of this analysis of the energy related faces of doom.
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Notes
- 1.
Not unsurprisingly, the military intelligence community is keen on considering the consequences of living in a highly dangerous and uncertain world. Their scenarios are a welcome reminder of the geopolitical realities in which a transition towards global sustainability must be made. See for instance the report of the US National Intelligence Council (NIC 2008).
- 2.
The terms shaping and hedging strategies in the context of long-term energy futures were first used in a Rand corporation study on US energy scenarios. See (Silberglitt et al. 2003).
- 3.
The analogy between a hierarchy in energy policy objectives and a hierarchy in individual personal motivations (the Maslow pyramid) was first used by Chistoph Frei in 2004. See (Frei 2004).
- 4.
Even the International Energy Agency has left its previous, reassuring stance. Its latest World Energy Outlook carries a truly alarming message. See (IEA 2008).
- 5.
The figures are based on the actual price composition of gasoline in the Netherlands, since averages for Europe are not easily calculated. However, these figures represent the European situation sufficiently well for this illustrative case.
- 6.
The number of 135 €/t for the required CO2-tax level happens to be equal to the number of 135$/barrel for the price of oil in June 2008. This is purely accidental.
- 7.
For a recent performance overview see (EC 2008).
References
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Frei, C. W. (2004). The Kyoto protocol – a victim of supply security? Or: if Maslow were in energy politics. Energy Policy, 32, 1253–1256.
IEA. (2008, November). World Energy Outlook 2008. Paris: International Energy Agency.
NIC. (2008, November). Global trends 2025: A transformed world. Washington, DC: US National Intelligence Council.
Silberglitt, R., Hove, A., & Shulman, P. (2003). Analysis of US energy scenarios: Meta-scenarios, pathways and policy implications. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 70, 297–315.
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Bruggink, J. (2011). Dealing with Doom: Tackling the Triple Challenge of Energy Scarcity, Climate Change and Global Inequity. In: Jaeger, C., Tàbara, J., Jaeger, J. (eds) European Research on Sustainable Development. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-19202-9_6
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