Abstract
Despite the recent upsurge in research, the complex and inter-related processes driving climate change continue to be characterized by significant uncertainty. One of the major issues for policy-makers is how to deal with this considerable uncertainty in ways that enable pro-active measures rather than complicate or discourage them. A great unknown is the extent to which human actions may alter the climate system over decades and centuries to come. In this case, widely varying assumptions alter the set, rate and extent of projected impacts (Kasemir et al. 2003; Banuri and Weyant 2001; Oppenheimer et al. 2008). The assessment of changes in components of the climatic system, including the prediction of impacts of GHG concentration on changes in climatic variables, radiative forcing, climate response, and impact sensitivity, remain highly uncertain as well (Dessai and Hulme 2004; University of Washington 2007). In light of such uncertainties, current attempts to better understand the implications of changing climate are based on assessing the outlook for future emissions (and emission reductions) of GHGs and aerosols, the resulting changes in climatic variables and their impacts on ecosystems and society, and finally the extent and effectiveness of adaptation actions to ameliorate impacts (O’Neil and Melnikov 2008).
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Notes
- 1.
Combining both likelihood and confidence created some difficulties in communicating uncertainties, because some combinations of likelihood and confidence (as these concepts are defined by the IPCC) are difficult to interpret. For example, very high/low likelihoods only seem meaningful if interpreted as statements of high confidence (Risbey and Kandlikar 2007).
- 2.
- 3.
John Robinson defines this type of backcasting as a ‘second generation’ (Robinson 2003).
- 4.
At the regional and local scales , scenario choices included personal transportation, the density and location of urban growth, the style of neighborhoods, agricultural trends and practices, forestry practices, economic activity and practices, water conservation, energy efficiency, government taxation and spending, and personal choices like diet and consumption practices (Robinson et al. 2006).
- 5.
This is why backcasting models like QUEST are not useful for predictive forecasting. They are intended to illustrate the consequences of different choices, not to predict the likelihood of such choices.
- 6.
The QUEST approach used in the GBFP led to the development of the Metroquest software, which has now been purchased by 16 municipalities in Canada and the US to engage their citizens on sustainability issues.
- 7.
As explained later, Post-SRES B1 was used for the low emissions world in order to account for explicit mitigation policy.
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Bizikova, L., Burch, S., Robinson, J., Shaw, A., Sheppard, S. (2011). Utilizing Participatory Scenario-Based Approaches to Design Proactive Responses to Climate Change in the Face of Uncertainties. In: Gramelsberger, G., Feichter, J. (eds) Climate Change and Policy. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-17700-2_8
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