Global tropical cyclogenesis as a stochastic process

Abstract

The methodological approach described in this chapter is based on the concept of tropical cyclogenesis evolution as stochastic flows of homogeneous events. The basic idea of the investigation and the formation of probability characteristics for global tropical cyclogenesis, as a signal of interdependent structure by the mathematical apparatus of random flow theory, was first proposed and developed by the present author. At first glance it would seem that there is no correlation between the proposed approach and the approaches commonly used with the aim of determining the quantitative characteristics of global cyclogenesis (e.g., year-averaged or monthaveraged numbers of tropical cyclones or TCs). What actually happens is that this is not the case. The proposed method is a more generalized approach as the outlined approximations fit naturally into this scheme.