Basics on Uncertainties

Abstract

Using the simple case of uncertainty when rounding numbers all relevant characteristics of uncertainties are introduced: true value, best estimate, uncertainty, sign of a deviation, confidence interval, arithmetic mean, standard deviation, expanded uncertainty and coverage factor. Besides it can be used to show that the shape of the uncertainty distribution depends on the kind of numbers that are rounded. Maximum uncertainties, limits and outliers are discussed. The numerical handling of uncertainty components (the law of uncertainty propagation) is dealt with. Combining standard uncertainties is covered, and the experimental uncertainty comprising measurement, model, and parameter uncertainty is introduced.