Abstract
Scenario techniques have become popular tools for dealing with possible futures. Driving forces of the development (the so-called key factors) and their possible projections into the future are determined. After a reduction of the possible combinations of projections to a set of consistent and probable candidates for possible futures, traditionally one-mode cluster analysis is used for grouping them. In this paper, two-mode clustering approaches are proposed for this purpose and tested in an application for the future of eLearning in higher education. In this application area, scenario techniques are a very young and promising methodology.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
BAIER, D., GAUL, W., and SCHADER, M. (1997): Two-Mode Overlapping Clustering With Applications to Simultaneous Benefit Segmentation and Market Structuring. In: Klar, R. and Opitz, O. (Eds.), Classification and Knowledge Organization. Springer, Heidelberg, 557-566.
COATES, J. F. (2000): Scenario Planning. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 65, 115-123.
CUHLS, C., BLIND, K., and GRUPP, H. (2002): Innovations for our Future. Delphi ’98: New Foresight on Science and Technology. Physica-Verlag, Heidelberg.
DESARBO, W.S., FONG, D., and LIECHTY, J. (2005): Two-Mode Cluster Analysis via Hi-erarchical Bayes. In: Baier, D. and Wernecke, W. (Eds.), Innovations in Classification, Data Science, and Information Systems. Springer, Heidelberg, 19-29.
GÖCKS, M. S. (2006): Betriebswirtschaftliche eLearning-Anwendungen in der universitären Ausbildung. Shaker, Aachen.
GÖTZE, U. (1993): Szenario-Technik in der strategischen Unternehmensplanung. 2nd Edi-tion, DUV, Wiesbaden.
KAHN, H. and WIENER, A. J. (1967): The Year 2000: A Framework for Speculation on the Next Thirty-Three Years. Macmillan, New York.
KRÖHNERT, S., VAN OLST, N., and KLINGHOLZ, R. (2004): Deutschland 2020: Die demographische Zukunft der Nation. Berlin-Institut für Bevölkerung und Entwicklung, Berlin.
KROLAK-SCHWERDT, S., WIEDENBECK, M. (2006): The Recovery Performance of Two-Mode Clustering Methods: Monte Carlo Experiment. In: Spiliopoulou, M. et al. (Eds.), From Data and Information Analysis to Knowledge Engineering. Springer, Heidelberg, 190-197.
LI, T. (2005): A General Model for Clustering Binary Data. In: Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining (KDD) 2005. Chicago, 188-197.
MEADOWS, D., RANDERS, J. and BEHRENS, W. (1972): The Limits to Growth. Universe, New York.
MICHEL, L. P. (2006): Digitales Lernen: Forschung - Praxis - Märkte. Books on Demand, Norderstedt.
MISSLER-BEHR, M. (1993): Methoden der Szenarioanalyse. DUV, Wiesbaden.
MISSLER-BEHR, M. (2002): Fuzzy Scenario Evaluation. In: Gaul, W. and Ritter, G. (Eds.): Classification, Automation, a. New Media. Springer, Berlin, 351-358.
OPASCHOWSKI, H. W. (2006): Deutschland 2020: Wie wir morgen leben - Prognosen der Wissenschaft. 2nd Edition, Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften, Wiesbaden.
PASTERNACK, G. (2006): Die wirtschaftlichen Aussichten der ostdt. Braunkohlenwirtschaft bis zum Jahr 2020: Eine Szenario-Analyse. Kovac, Hamburg.
PHELPS, R., CHAN, C., and KAPSALIS, S.C. (2001): Does Scenario Planning Affect Per-formance? Two Exploratory Studies. Journal of Business Research, 51, 223-232.
RINGLAND, G. (2006): Scenario Planning. John Wiley, Chichester.
SCHULMEISTER, R. (2006): eLearning: Einsichten und Aussichten. Oldenbourg, München.
SCHWARTZ, P. (1991): The Art of the Long View. Doubleday, Philadelphia.
SPREY, M. (2003): Zukunftsorientiertes Lernen mit der Szenario-Methode. Klinkhardt, Bad Heilbrunn.
VAN DER HEIJDEN, K. (2005): Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation. 2nd Edition, John Wiley, Chichester.
WELFENS, P. J. J. (2004): Internetwirtschaft 2010: Perspektiven und Auswirkungen. Physica, Heidelberg.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2008 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
About this paper
Cite this paper
Kaiser, M.J., Baier, D. (2008). Scenario Evaluation Using Two-mode Clustering Approaches in Higher Education. In: Preisach, C., Burkhardt, H., Schmidt-Thieme, L., Decker, R. (eds) Data Analysis, Machine Learning and Applications. Studies in Classification, Data Analysis, and Knowledge Organization. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-78246-9_78
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-78246-9_78
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-540-78239-1
Online ISBN: 978-3-540-78246-9
eBook Packages: Mathematics and StatisticsMathematics and Statistics (R0)