Abstract
The science and practice of seasonal climate forecasts have progressed significantly in the last couple of decades (Carson 1998; Goddard et al. 2001; Palmer and Anderson 1994). It has been demonstrated that seasonal forecasts are skillful in many regions, particularly in the tropics (Goddard et al. 2003; Gong et al. 2003; Stockdale et al. 1998). General circulation models (GCMs) have been employed in seasonal climate forecasting at various centers (Derome et al. 2001; Frederiksen et al. 2001; Mason et al. 1999; O’Lenic 1994; Ward et al. 1993). Due to computational constraints, GCMs typically are run at relatively coarse spatial resolutions generally greater than 2.0° for both latitude and longitude. The direct result of the poor spatial resolution of GCMs is a serious mismatch of spatial scale between the available climate forecasts and the scale of interest to most climate forecast users. Some applications also require climate forecasts with higher temporal resolution. Most crop models, for example, require daily weather input. GCM outputs are available as the required daily values, but GCM daily precipitation shows very low daily variability and many high errors compared to observations (Mearns et al. 1990).
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Anthes RA, Kuo YH, Hsie EY, Low-Nam S, Bettge TW (1989) Estimation of episodic and climatological skill and uncertainty in regional numerical models. Q J Roy Meteor Soc 115:770–792
Bielli S, Laprise R (2006) A methodology for regional scale-decomposed atmospheric water budget: application to a simulation of the Canadian regional climate model nested by NCEP reanalysis over North America. Mon Weather Rev 134(3):854–873
Camargo SJ, Li H, Sun L (2007) Feasibility study for downscaling seasonal tropical cyclone activity using the NCEP regional spectral model. Int J Climatol (in press)
Carson DJ (1998) Seasonal forecasting. Q J Roy Meteor Soc 124:1–26
Castro CL, Pielke RA, Leoncini G (2005) Dynamical downscaling: assessment of value retained and added using the regional atmospheric modeling system (RAMS). J Geophys Res 110:D05108
Chen SC, Roads JO, Juang HMH, Kanamitsu M (1999) Global to regional simulation of California’s wintertime precipitation. J Geophys Res 104:31517–31532
Denis B, Laprise R, Caya D (2003) Sensitivity of a regional climate model to the resolution of the lateral boundary conditions. Clim Dynam 20:107–126
Derome J, Brunet G, Plante A, Gagnon, N, Boer GJ, Zwiers F, Lambert S, Sheng J, Ritchie H (2001) Seasonal predictions based on two dynamical models. Atmos Ocean 39:485–501
Dickinson RE, Errico RM, Giorgi F, Bates GT (1989) A regional climate model for the western United States, Climatic Change 15:383–422
Diez E, Primo C, Garcia-Moya JA, Gutierrez JM, Orfila B (2005) Statistical and dynamical downscaling of precipitation over Spain from DEMETER seasonal forecasts. Tellus 57A:409–423
Druyan L, Fulakeza M, Lonergan P (2002) Dynamic downscaling of seasonal climate predictions over Braz J Clim 15:3411–3426
Fennessy MJ, Shukla J (2000) Seasonal prediction over North America with a regional model nested in a global model. J Climate 13:2605–2627
Frank WM, Cohan C (1987) Simulation of tropical convective systems. Part 1: a cumulus parameterization. Mon Weather Rev 44:3787–3799
Frederiksen CS, Zhang H, Balgovind RC, Nicholls N, Drosdowsky W, Chambers L (2001) Dynamical seasonal forecasts during the 1997/98 ENSO using persisted SST anomalies. J. Climate 14:2675–2695
Gershunov A, Barnett TP (1998) ENSO influence on intraseasonal extreme rainfall and temperature frequencies in the contiguous United States: observations and model results. J Climate 11:1575–1586
Giorgi F (1990) On the simulation of regional climate using a limited area model nested in a generate circulation model. J Climate 3:941–963
Giorgi F, Marinucci MR (1991) Validation of a regional atmospheric model over Europe: sensitivity of wintertime and summertime simulations to selected physics parameterizations and lower boundary conditions, Q J Roy Meteor Soc 117:1171–1207
Giorgi F, Mearns LO (1999) Introduction to special section: regional climate modeling revisited. J Geophys Res 104:6335–6352
Goddard L, Mason SJ, Zebiak SE, Ropelewski CF, Basher R, Cane MA (2001) Current approaches to seasonal-to-interannual climate predictions. Int J Climatol 21:111–1152
Goddard L, Barnston AG, Mason SJ (2003) Evaluation of the IRI’s “net assessment” seasonal climate forecasts 1997–2001. B Am Meteor Soc 84:1761–178
Gong, X, Barnston AG, Ward MN (2003) The effect of spatial aggregation on the skill of seasonal precipitation forecasts. Notes and Correspondence 16:3059–3071
Hong SY, Juang HMH, Lee DK (1999) Evaluation of a regional spectral model for the East Asian monsoon case studies for July 1987 and 1988. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 77:553–572
Juang HMH, Kanamitsu M (1994) The NMC nested regional spectral model. Mon Weather Rev 122:3–26
Kanamitsu M, Juang HMH (1994) Simulation and analysis of an Indian Monsoon by the NMC nested regional spectral model. Proceedings of the International Conference on Monsoon Variability and Prediction, International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy, 9–13 May 1994 (vol II, WMO.TD-No. pp 619)
Landman AL, Seth A, Camargo SJ (2005) The effect of regional climate modeldomain choice on the simulation of tropical cyclone-like vortices in the southwestern Indian Ocean. J Climate 18:1263–1274
Leung LR, Mearns LO, Giorgi F, Wilby RL (2003) Regional climate research: need and opportunities. B Am Meteor Soc 84:89–95
Mason SJ, Goddard L, Graham NE, Yulaeva E, Sun L, Arkin PA (1999) The IRI seasonal climate prediction system and the 1997/98 El Niño event. B Am Meteor Soc 80: 1853–1873
Mearns LO, Schneider SH, Thompson SL, McDaniel LR (1990) Analysis of climate variability in general circulation models: comparison with observations and changes in variability in 2 × CO2 experiments. J Geophys Res 95:20469–20490
Miguez-Macho G, Stenchikov GL, Robock A (2004) Spectral nudging to eliminate the effects of domain position and geometry in regional climate model simulations. J Geophys Res 109:D13104
Misra V, Kanamitsu M (2004) Anomaly nesting: a methodology to downscale seasonal climate simulations from AGCMs. J Climate 17:3249–3262
Misra V, Dirmeyer PA, Kirtman BP (2003) Dynamic downscaling of seasonal simulations over South America. J Climate 16:103–117
Murphy J (1999) An evaluation of statistical and dynamical techniques for downscaling local climate. J Climate 12:2256–2284
Nobre P, Moura AD, Sun L (2001) Dynamical downscaling of seasonal climate prediction over Nordeste Brazil with ECHAM3 and NCEP’s regional spectral models at IRI. B Am Meteor Soc 82:2787–2796
O’Lenic E (1994) A new paradigm for productions and dissemination of the NWS’s long lead-time seasonal climate outlooks. Proceedings of the 19th Annual Climate Diagnostics Workshop, College Park, MD, NOAA Climate Prediction Center, pp 408–410
Palmer TN, Anderson DLT (1994) The prospects for seasonal forecasting — a review paper. Q J Roy Meteor Soc 120:755–793
Phillips NA (1963) Geostrophic motion. Rev Geophys 1:123–176
Roads JO (2000) The second international RSM workshop: meeting summary. B Am Meteor Soc 81:2979–2980
Roads JO, Chen SC (2000) Surface water and energy budgets in the NCEP regional spectral model. J Geophys Res 105(D24):29539–29550
Roads JO, Chen S, Cocke S, Druyan L, Fulakeza M, Larow T, Lonegan P, Qian J, Zebrak S (2003) The IRI/ARCs regional model intercomparison over Brazil. J Geophys Res 108(D14):4425, ACL 9: 1–12
Roeckner E, Arpe K, Bengtsson L, Christoph M, Claussen M, Dumenil L, Esch M, Giorgetta M, Schlese U, Schulzweida U (1996) The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM-4: model description and simulation of present-day climate. Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany (Technical Report 218, p 90)
Seth A, Giorgi F (1998) The effects of domain choice on summer precipitation simulation and sensitivity in a regional climate model. J Climate 11:2698–2712
Seth A, Rojas M (2003) Simulation and sensitivity in a nested modeling system for South America. Part I: Reanalyses boundary forcing. J Climate 15:2437–2453
Skytus J, Mckeon M, Flood N, Smith I, Goddard L (2003) Evaluation of a dynamical seasonal climate forecast system for Queensland. National Drought Forum 2003 — Science for Drought, pp 160–173
Stockdale TN, Anderson DLT, Alves JOS, Balmaseda MA (1998) Global seasonal rainfall forecasts using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Nature 392:370–373
Sun L, Semazzi FHM, Giorgi F, Ogallo L (1999a) Application of the NCAR regional climate model to eastern Africa. Part I: Simulation of the short rains of 1998. J Geophys Res 104:6529–6548
Sun L, Semazzi FHM, Giorgi F, Ogallo L (1999b) Application of the NCAR regional climate model to eastern Africa. Part II: Simulation of interannual variability of short rains. J Geophys Res 104:6549–6562
Sun L, Moncunill DF, Li H, Moura AD, Filho FDADS (2005) Climatedownscaling over Nordeste Brazil using NCEP RSM97. J Climate 18:551–567
Sun L, Moncunill DF, Li H, Moura AD, Filho FDADS, Zebiak SE (2006) An operational dynamical downscaling prediction system for Nordeste Brazil and the 2002–04 real-time forecast evaluation. J Climate 19(10):1990–2007
Sun L, Li H, Ward MN, Moncunill D (2007) Climate variability and corn yields in semi-arid Ceará Brazil. J Appl Meteorol (in press)
Takle ES, Gutowski WJ, Jr, Arritt RW, Z. Pan, Anderson C, Silva R, Caya D, Chen SC, Christensen JH, Hong SY, Juang HMH, Katzfey J, Lapenta WM, Laprise R, Lopez P, McGregor J, Roads JO (1999) Project to intercompare regional climate simulations (PIRCS). J Geophys Res 104:19443–19449
Ward MN, Folland CK, Maskell K, Colman AW, Rowell DP, Lane KB (1993) Experimental seasonal forecasting of tropical rainfall at the U.K. Meteorological Office. In: Shukla J (ed) Prediction of interannual climate variations., Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg (NATO ASI Series, vol. 16, pp 197–216)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2007 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Sun, L., Ward, M.N. (2007). Climate Downscaling: Assessment of the Added Values Using Regional Climate Models. In: Sivakumar, M.V.K., Hansen, J. (eds) Climate Prediction and Agriculture. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-44650-7_2
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-44650-7_2
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-540-44649-1
Online ISBN: 978-3-540-44650-7
eBook Packages: Earth and Environmental ScienceEarth and Environmental Science (R0)