Abstract
We propose and demonstrate a dialectical framework for the assessment and assembly of evidence in discovery processes. This paper addresses the stimulation and capture of dialectical argumentation in the context of complex (wicked) problems. Holonic representation is developed to structure processes hierarchically for the modeling of complex problems. Interval Probability Theory (IPT) is modified to produce an evidential reasoning calculus to represent dialectical argument through the separation of evidence for and evidence against a hypothesis. Support for and against any hypothesis can then be assembled through a weighting of the relevance, importance and degree of evidence. Uncertainty surrounding any hypothesis can be decomposed into randomness, vagueness, conflict, incompleteness and relevance and can be managed within the framework. The framework is illustrated with real examples of discovery from two energy related complex (wicked) problems.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Conklin, E.J., Weil, W.: Wicked Problems: Naming the Pain in Organisations (2002), http://www.gdss.com/wicked
Schon, D.: The Reflective Practitioner. Basic Books, New York (1983)
Davis, J.P., Hall, J.W.: A Software-Supported Process for Assembling Evidence and Handling Uncertainty in Decision-Making. Decision Support Systems 35, 415–433 (2003)
Cui, W., Blockley, D.I.: Interval Probability for Evidential Support. Int. J. of Intelligent Systems 5, 183–192 (1990)
Hall, J.W., Blockley, D.I., Davis, J.P.: Uncertain Inference Using Interval Probability Theory. Int. J. of Approximate Reasoning 19, 247–264 (1988)
Hall, J.W., Blockley, D.I., Davis, J.P.: Non-Additive Probabilities for Representing Uncertain Knowledge. In: Babovic, V., Larson, L.C. (eds.) Proc. of Int. Conf. on Hydroinformatics, Copenhagen, Balkema, Rotterdam (1998)
Davis, J.P., Fletcher, A.J.P.: Managing Assets Under Uncertainty. Paper 59433 presented at SPE Asia Pacific Conference on Integrated Reservoir Modeling for Asset Management, Yokohama, Japan, April 25–26 (2000)
Taylor, C.A., Hall, J.W., Davis, J.P.: Seismic Safety Assessment of Dams and Appurtenant Works for Areas of Low to Moderate Seismicity. In: 12th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Canterbury, New Zealand (February 2000)
Sanchez-Silva, M., Blockley, D.I., Taylor, C.A.: Uncertainty Modeling of Earthquake Hazards. Microcomputers in Civil Engineering 11, 99–114 (1996)
Fletcher, A.J.P., et al.: A Framework for Greenhouse Gas Related Decision-Making with Incomplete Evidence. In: Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Technologies Conference 6, Kyoto, Japan, September 30 –October 3 (2002)
Fletcher, A.J.P., et al.: Complex Problems with Incomplete Evidence: Modeling for Decision-Making. In: Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Technologies Conference 6, Kyoto, Japan, September 30 – October 3, (2002)
Dawson, R.J., Davis, J.P., Hall, J.W.: A Decision Support Tool for Performance-Based Management of Flood Defense Systems. In: Proc. of Int. Conf. on Hydroinformatics, Cardiff (2002)
Davis, J.P.: Process Decomposition. In: Proc. of Int. Conf. on Hydroinformatics, Cardiff (2002)
Davis, J.P., Hall, J.W.: Assembling Uncertain Information for Decision-Making. In: Babovic, V., Larson, L.C. (eds.) Proc. of Int. Conf. on Hydroinformatics, Copenhagen, Balkema, Rotterdam (1998)
Hall, J.W., et al.: A Decision-Support Methodology for Performance-Based Infrastructure management. Natural Hazard Review, ASCE (in press)
Fletcher, A.J.P., Davis, J.P.: Decision-Making with Incomplete Evidence. Paper SPE 77910 presented at the SPE Asia Pacific Oil and Gas Conference, Melbourne, October 8–10 (2002)
Koestler, A.: The Ghost in the Machine. Arkana Books, London (1967) ISBN 014 019192 5
Smithson, M.J.: Ignorance and Uncertainty: Emerging Paradigms. Cognitive Science Series. Springer, New York (1989)
Krause, P., Clark, D.: Representing Uncertain Knowledge: An Artificial Intelligence Approach. Intellect Books, Oxford (1993)
Casti, J.L.: Reality Rules – Picturing the World in Mathematics, vol. 1 & 2. John Wiley and Sons, London (1992) ISBN 0417 184365
Dempster, A.P.: Upper and Lower Probability Inference for Families of Hypotheses with Monotone Density Ratios. The Annals of Math. Stat. 40(3), 953–969 (1969)
Shafer, G.: A Mathematical Theory of Evidence. Princeton University Press, Princeton (1976)
Fletcher, A.J.P., Davis, J.P.: A Dialectical Framework for the Representation and Management of Complex Problems. Paper submitted to Complexity International (April 2003)
Fletcher, A.J.P.: Application of a Dialectical Framework to the Complex Problem of Gas to Liquids Technology. Paper submitted to Complexity International (April 2003)
Russell, B.: History of Western Philosophy. George Allan and Unwin, London (1961)
Dubois, D., Prade, H.: A Discussion of Uncertainty Handling in Support Logic Programming. Int. J. of Intelligent Systems 5, 15–42 (1990)
Toulmin, S.: The Uses of Argument. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (1958)
Toulmin, S.: Return to Reason. Harvard University Press, Cambridge (2001); ISBN 0-674-00495-7
Dodds, K., et al.: An Overpressure Case History Using A Novel Risk Analysis Process. APPEA Journal, Australia (2001)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2003 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
About this paper
Cite this paper
Fletcher, A., Davis, J. (2003). Dialectical Evidence Assembly for Discovery. In: Grieser, G., Tanaka, Y., Yamamoto, A. (eds) Discovery Science. DS 2003. Lecture Notes in Computer Science(), vol 2843. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-39644-4_10
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-39644-4_10
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-540-20293-6
Online ISBN: 978-3-540-39644-4
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive