Abstract
In this paper we present a technique for prediction of electrical demand based on multiple models. The multiple models are composed by several local models, each one describing a region of behavior of the system, called operation regime. The multiple models approach developed in this work is applied to predict electrical load 24 hours ahead. Data of electrical load from the state of California that include an approximate period of 2 years was used as a case of study. The concept of multiple model implemented in the present work is also characterized by the combination of several techniques. Two important techniques are applied in the construction of multiple models: Regularization and the Knowledge Discovery in Data Bases (KDD) techniques. KDD is used to identify the operation regime of electrical load time series.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Ankerst, M.: Visual Data Mining (2000), http://www.dissertation.de
California ISO, http://www.caiso.com
Cheeseman, P.: Auto Class Documentation (2000)
Montgomery, D.C., Johnson, L., Gardiner, A., John, S.: Forecasting and Time Series Analysis, 2nd edn. McGraw-Hill, Singapore (1990)
Fayyad, U.M., Piatetsky-Shapiro, G., Padhraic, S., Ramasamy, U.: Advances in Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining. AAAI Press/MIT press (1996)
Garcia Villanueva, M.: Detección de Conglomerados en Espacios Métricos. Universidad Michoacana de San Nicolás de Hidalgo, Facultad de Ingeniería eléctrica, Morelia, México (2001)
Geman, S., Geman, D.: Stochastic Relaxation, Gibbs Distribution and the Bayesian Restoration of Images. IEEE Trans. on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence 6, 721–741 (1994)
Hamilton, H., Gurak, E., Findlater, L., Olive, W.: Knowledge Discovery in Databases, http://www.cs.uregina.ca/~dbd/cs831.html
Jahansen, T.A.: Operation Regime Based Process Modeling and Identification. Department of Engineering cybernetics. The Norwegian Institute of Technology. University of Trondheim, Norway (1994)
Johansen, T.A., Murray-Smith, R.: Multiple Model Approach to Modeling Control, ch. 1 (1997), http://www.dcs.gla.ac.uk/~rod/Publications.htm
Li, C., Biswas, G.: Unsupervised Learning with Mixed Numeric and Nominal Data. IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering 14(4), 676–690 (2002)
Mclachlan, G.J., Krishnan, T.: The EM Algorithm and Extensions. John Wiley & Sons, Canada (1997)
Perry, C.: Short-Term Load Forecasting Using Multiple Regression Analysis. In: Rural Electric Power conference (1999)
Shen, W.-M.: Autonomous Learning from the Environment. WH Freeman and co., New York (1994)
Weron, R., Kozlowska, B., Nowicka-Zagrajek, I.: Modeling Electricity Loads in California: a Continuous-Time Approach. Physica A 299, 344–350 (2001), www.elsevier.com/locate/physa
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2004 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
About this paper
Cite this paper
Melgoza, J.J.R., Flores, J.J., Sotomane, C., Calderón, F. (2004). Extracting Temporal Patterns from Time Series Data Bases for Prediction of Electrical Demand. In: Monroy, R., Arroyo-Figueroa, G., Sucar, L.E., Sossa, H. (eds) MICAI 2004: Advances in Artificial Intelligence. MICAI 2004. Lecture Notes in Computer Science(), vol 2972. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-24694-7_3
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-24694-7_3
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-540-21459-5
Online ISBN: 978-3-540-24694-7
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive