Abstract
This paper outlines the scenario-building approach of the Mobility4EU project that aims to create a vision and action plan for mobility and transport in 2030. Scenario building is the first step of the Multi-Actor Multi-Criteria Analysis (MAMCA), the methodology used to conduct a broad stakeholder consultation. To emphasize the participative nature of the scenario building, the scenarios were created using the intuitive logics technique and participatory workshops. Each scenario describes future trends and technological, organisational or policy-related solutions. Based on a survey of stakeholders, “policy & legislative framework” and “lifestyle and user behaviour” emerged as pivotal uncertainties to steer the scenario building. They provided the basis for the development of four scenarios: Data World, Digital Nomads, Slow is Beautiful, and Minimum Carbon. The paper describes the trends and solutions that comprise these scenarios.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Notes
- 1.
This paper is partly based on Deliverable D3.1 of the Mobility4EU project (Keseru et al. 2016).
- 2.
China, India, Brazil, Mexico, Russia, Indonesia and Turkey.
References
Bernardino J, Aggelakakis A, Reichenbach M, Vieira J, Boile M, Schippl J et al (2015) Transport demand evolution in Europe—factors of change, scenarios and challenges. Eur J Futures Res 2015(3):1–13. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40309-015-0072-y
Bröchler S, Simonis G, Sundermann K, Steinmüller K (eds) (1999) Szenarien in der Technikfolgenabschätzung. Handbuch Technikfolgenabschätzung, Edition. Sigma, Berlin
Greeuw SCH (2000) Cloudy crystal balls: an assessment of recent European and global scenario studies and models. European Environment Agency, Copenhagen. Available online: https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/Environmental_issues_series_17/at_download/file. Accessed on 20 Sep 2017
Keseru I, Coosemans T, Macharis C, Muller (2016) Mobility4EU Deliverable D3.1 Report on MAMCA scenario descriptions. Available online: https://www.mobility4eu.eu/resource/d3-1-report-on-mamca-scenario-descriptions/#. Accessed on 20 Sep 2017
Keseru I, Coosemans T, Gagatsi E, Macharis C (2018) User-centric vision for mobility in 2030: participatory evaluation of scenarios by the multi-actor multi-criteria analysis (MAMCA). In: Procedia—Proceedings of 7th Transport Research Arena TRA 2018, 16–19 Apr 2018, Vienna, in print
Kosow H, Gaßner R (2008) Methods of future and scenario analysis : overview, assessment, and selection criteria. DIE—Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik, Bonn. Available online: http://edoc.vifapol.de/opus/volltexte/2013/4381/. Accessed on 20 Sep 2017
Krail M, Condeço-Melhorado A, Ibañez-Rivas N, Christodoulou A, Reichenbach M, Schippl J (2014) Scenario-based assessment of the competitiveness of the European transport sector, FUTRE Project Deliverable D5.3 Available online: http://publica.fraunhofer.de/eprints/urn_nbn_de_0011-n-3283527.pdf. Accessed 26 Sep 2017
Leppänen J, Neuvonen A, Ritola M, Ahola I, Hirvonen S, Hyötyläinen M et al. (2012) Future scenarios for New European social models with visualisations. Deliverable D4.1 of the SPREAD project. Available online: https://www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu/fileadmin/images/content/D4.1_FourFutureScenarios.pdf. Accessed 20 Nov 2017
Macharis C, de Witte A, Ampe J (2009) The multi-actor, multi-criteria analysis methodology (MAMCA) for the evaluation of transport projects: theory and practice. J Adv Transp 43:183–202. https://doi.org/10.1002/atr.5670430206
Mobility4EU (2016) Deliverable D2.2 Societal needs and requirements for future transportation and mobility as well as opportunities and challenges of current solutions. Available online: https://www.mobility4eu.eu/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/M4EU_WP2_D21_v2_21Dec2016_final.pdf. Accessed on 20 Sep 2017
Mobility4EU (2018) Deliverable D2.3 Novel and innovative mobility concepts and solutions. Available online: https://www.mobility4eu.eu/?wpdmdl=2069. Accessed on 20 Dec 2017
Muller B, Meyer G (2018) Mobility4EU—action plan for the future of mobility in Europe. In: Procedia—Proceedings of 7th Transport Research Arena TRA 2018, 16–19 Apr 2018, Vienna, in print
Wack P (1985) Scenarios: shooting the rapids. Harvard Bus Rev (November)
Wright G, Bradfield R, Cairns G (2013) Does the intuitive logics method—and its recent enhancements—produce “effective” scenarios? Technol Forecast Soc Chang 80:631–42. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2012.09.003
Acknowledgements
The authors wish to thank the European Commission for the funding of the Mobility4EU project in the framework of the Horizon2020 program (EC Contract No. 690732).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2019 Springer Nature Switzerland AG
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Keseru, I., Coosemans, T., Macharis, C. (2019). Building Scenarios for the Future of Transport in Europe: The Mobility4EU Approach. In: Müller, B., Meyer, G. (eds) Towards User-Centric Transport in Europe. Lecture Notes in Mobility. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-99756-8_2
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-99756-8_2
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-99755-1
Online ISBN: 978-3-319-99756-8
eBook Packages: EngineeringEngineering (R0)