Abstract
Futures contracts are a valuable market option for electricity negotiating players, as they enable reducing the risk associated to the day-ahead market volatility. The price defined in these contracts is, however, itself subject to a degree of uncertainty; thereby turning price forecasting models into attractive assets for the involved players. This paper proposes a model for futures contracts price forecasting, using artificial neural networks. The proposed model is based on the results of a data analysis using the spearman rank correlation coefficient. From this analysis, the most relevant variables to be considered in the training process are identified. Results show that the proposed model for monthly average electricity price forecast is able to achieve very low forecasting errors.
This work has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Sklodowska-Curie grant agreement No 641794 (project DREAM-GO), from NetEfficity Project (P2020-18015) and from FEDER Funds through COMPETE program and from National Funds through FCT under the project UID/EEA/00760/2013.
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Nascimento, J., Pinto, T., Vale, Z. (2019). Electricity Price Forecast for Futures Contracts with Artificial Neural Network and Spearman Data Correlation. In: Rodríguez, S., et al. Distributed Computing and Artificial Intelligence, Special Sessions, 15th International Conference. DCAI 2018. Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, vol 801. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-99608-0_2
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-99608-0_2
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