Abstract
Evidence is about the past, decisions are about the future. Modelling links the two and computational modelling is increasing in scope and relevance to policy. Models can be used to convene discussions between experts, decision-makers and publics. Explicitly thinking about the future is an essential task, to be undertaken with humility. Insights such as those from the UK’s Foresight programme show ways to combine multiple techniques to inform decisions and debate. Relatively little attention is paid to the roles of narrative. This may change soon, alongside explicit exploration of how notions of the historic past inform today’s anticipations. Embodiment poses particular challenges: it can illustrate and draw attention, but it also risks distracting debate away from systemic issues with bigger impacts in the long term.
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Notes
- 1.
Multiple similar versions of this statement are attributed to people such as Niels Bohr, Yogi Berra and Samuel Goldwyn.
- 2.
Material relating to all Foresight projects is available through the UK Government website, gov.uk.
- 3.
In his book, Science and Government, C.P. Snow describes Foresight as “not quite knowledge … more an expectation of knowledge to come” (Snow, 1961).
- 4.
As always, the use of related terms varies across disciplines and authors. Here narrative is used to mean a particular account, whereas a story is a sequence of events.
- 5.
In an early and rarely cited project exploring potential future uses of the electromagnetic spectrum the team directly commissioned Kate Mosse, before she became a best-selling author, to write four short pieces of fiction. These were presented as part of the final package of project outputs, alongside technical roadmaps. There is no report as to what happened as a result.
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Craig, C. (2019). How to Think About the Future. In: How Does Government Listen to Scientists?. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-96086-9_3
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