Abstract
This chapter examines the polling results published by major newspapers during Prime Minister Shinzō Abe’s second premiership. His approval rating was very high on average, but exhibited a few marked declines and gradual recoveries. A close examination of the timing and reasons for those changes reveals Mr. Abe’s deliberate strategy in dealing with public opinion. He emphasized “valence” issues, which are difficult to oppose by anyone, as a strategy to buoy his approval ratings. But he switched to push “position” issues, which can invite heavy criticism from the opposition parties, when he could endure a decline in his popularity in order to achieve his policy goals. Furthermore, it is clear that he tried to keep the Diet closed as long as possible to recover from political wounds after passing major legislation.
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Notes
- 1.
Jiji Press is a wire service agency that provides news articles to local newspapers. However, its competitor, Kyodo News, has a much larger market share. While Jiji polling data are very important for academics, the polls’ political impact seems to be very limited. For the most useful academic discussion of the Jiji Opinion Poll, see Miyake et al. (2001).
- 2.
The ranking order from highest to lowest is Abe (second premiership), Koizumi , Kaifu, Ikeda, Nakasone, Hashimoto , Satō, Suzuki, Miki, and Tanaka.
- 3.
See the transcript of Abe’s speech at a conference of local newspaper editors held at Kyodo News on December 15, 2017, available at https://www.kantei.go.jp/jp/98_abe/statement/2017/1215kyodo.html (last accessed on January 20, 2018).
- 4.
Kyodo News is the largest wire service in Japan, providing news to the most local newspapers and TV stations. I relied on Tokyo Shinbun to obtain the results of Kyodo Opinion Polls, but mention the dates of the results’ publication only when they are cited in the main body of text.
- 5.
The Kyodo Opinion Poll changed from the ordinary random digit dialing (RDD) methodology to dual frame random dialing that includes both landline and cell phones in April 2017. Though there seems to be no abrupt change between March and April 2017, how the shift from the traditional RDD to dual frame sampling affects answers to specific questions is unclear. In this chapter, I assume there is no qualitative difference caused by this change.
- 6.
According to Tokuyama (2014), major newspapers are roughly split into two camps: pro-Abe (Yomiuri, Nikkei, Sankei) and anti-Abe (Asahi, Mainichi, Tokyo).
- 7.
There are numerous opinion poll results that substantiate this claim. For examples, see Asahi (October 18, 2016 and February 21, 2017), Mainichi (March 13, 2017), and Tokyo (July 19, 2015).
- 8.
When Kyodo changed its sampling, it also changed the list of reasons why respondents approved or disapproved. For approval, it simply eliminated three reasons that were rarely chosen by respondents. For disapproval, it also eliminates the corresponding three reasons and changed one other response. Since the reasons frequently chosen by respondents were unchanged, I assume the comparability over time is not compromised.
- 9.
For the importance of expectations, see MacKuen et al. (1992).
- 10.
Indeed, in a 2014 survey experiment, Horiuchi et al. (2018) find that the LDP’s policy manifesto was the least popular on offer.
- 11.
https://japan.kantei.go.jp/96_abe/statement/201411/1118kaiken.html (last accessed on December 31, 2017).
- 12.
https://japan.kantei.go.jp/97_abe/statement/201606/1218234_11009.html (last accessed on December 31, 2017).
- 13.
Mainichi Opinion Poll reported 39% approval and 36% disapproval (Mainichi September 3, 2017); Asahi Opinion Poll found 38% approval and 38% disapproval (Asahi September 12, 2017); Yomiuri Opinion Poll had 50% approval and 38% disapproval (Yomiuri September 12, 2017).
- 14.
I reviewed feature articles in Asahi, Mainichi, and Yomiuri from September 27 to October 22. The issues listed are covered in feature articles in at least two of these newspapers.
- 15.
For further details on Kōmeitō’s policy positions and stance toward constitutional revision, see Klein and McLaughlin (this volume, p. 53); for the constitutional revision issue in general, see McElwain (this volume, p. 297); on Abenomics, see Katada and Cheung (this volume, p. 243).
- 16.
The question asked by Kyodo is the most straightforward simply because it allowed respondents to choose only one policy. As another example, Yomiuri and Nikkei allowed respondents to choose as many policies as they desire. Consequently, the importance people attached to each policy area was inflated, and the responses are not useful for understanding people’s priorities among policy areas (Maeda 2016).
- 17.
This observation is not unique. See, for example, the feature article on the five-year anniversary of the Abe cabinet in Mainichi (December 26, 2017).
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Acknowledgment
I am grateful to Margaret Gibbons for proof-reading and editing this chapter. All remaining errors are mine. This work was supported by JSPS KAKENHI Grant Number JP 26285031.
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Maeda, Y. (2018). Public Opinion and the Abe Cabinet: Alternating Valence and Position Issues. In: Pekkanen, R., Reed, S., Scheiner, E., Smith, D. (eds) Japan Decides 2017. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-76475-7_8
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