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Explaining the Vote in the Election of 2016: The Remarkable Come from Behind Victory of Republican Candidate Donald Trump

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The 2016 US Presidential Campaign

Part of the book series: Political Campaigning and Communication ((PCC))

Abstract

The study of political campaign communication focuses on the elements of the political environment, messengers, messages, channels of communication (print, radio, television, social media, etc.), audience, and effects. This chapter explains the presidential vote in 2016, and it draws upon the key factors in political campaign communication to explain it. The authors focus on: (1) the overall political environment, (2) the rules of the game and the electoral college, (3) the salience of party identification, (4) the messengers, (5) the messages and campaign strategies, (6) the channels of communication, and (7) and the audience or the regional/state and demographic bases of the presidential vote, with special attention to the roles of gender and race-ethnicity in recent elections and the 2016 campaign.

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Notes

  1. 1.

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  2. 2.

    Fred Barnes, “Trump Didn’t Split the GOP–He Strengthened It,” The Weekly Standard, November 9, 2016. Accessed December 6, 2016, http://www.weeklystandard.com/trump-didnt-split-the-gop-he-strengthened-it/article/2005302.

  3. 3.

    Karen Tumulty, Philip Rucker, and Anne Gearan, “Donald Trump Wins the Presidency in Stunning Upset Over Clinton,” The Washington Post, November 9, 2016. Accessed December 23, 2016, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/election-day-an-acrimonious-race-reaches-its-end-point/2016/11/08/32b96c72-a557-11e6-ba59-a7d93165c6d4_story.html?utm_term=.7c51bab20fef.

  4. 4.

    Tumulty, Rucker, and Gearan. “Donald Trump Wins the Presidency in Stunning Upset Over Clinton.”

  5. 5.

    Chuck Todd and Sheldon Gawiser. How Barack Obama Won (New York: Vintage Books, 2009).

  6. 6.

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  7. 7.

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  8. 8.

    Samuel L. Popkin. The Candidate: What It Takes to Win—and Hold—the White House (New York: Oxford University Press, 2012).

  9. 9.

    Henry Kenski and Kate M. Kenski, “Explaining the Vote in a Divided Country,” in Robert E. Denton, Jr, ed., The 2004 Presidential Campaign: A Communication Perspective (Lanham, Maryland: Rowman and Littlefield Publishers, Inc. 2005), pp. 301–33.

  10. 10.

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  11. 11.

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  12. 12.

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  13. 13.

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  14. 14.

    Balz, September 2, 2012.

  15. 15.

    Balz, September 2, 2012.

  16. 16.

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  17. 17.

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  18. 18.

    Wikipedia, “United States Presidential Election, 2016.”

  19. 19.

    Wikipedia, “United States Presidential Election, 2016.”

  20. 20.

    Wikipedia, “United States Presidential Election, 2016.”

  21. 21.

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  22. 22.

    Cillizza “The Rapidly Changing Media Landscape and What It Means for Politics—in 1 Chart.”

  23. 23.

    Steven Shepard, “Democratic Insiders: Clinton’s Ground Game Will Sink Trump,” Politico. November 4, 2016. Accessed December 6, 2016, http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/democratic-insiders-hillarys-ground-game-will-sink-trump-230718.

  24. 24.

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  25. 25.

    Bertoni, “Exclusive Interview: How Jared Kushner Won Trump The White House.”

  26. 26.

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  27. 27.

    Brownstein, “Is Donald Trump Outflanking Hillary Clinton?”

  28. 28.

    Henry C. Kenski and Lee Sigelman, “Where the Votes Come From: Group Components of the 1988 Senate Vote,” Legislative Studies Quarterly, 28(3), (1993), pp. 367–390, and Michael Barone, Our Country: The Shaping of America From Roosevelt to Reagan (New York: Free Press, 1990).

  29. 29.

    Ruy Teixeira, “Trump’s Coalition Won the Demographic Battle. It’ll Still Lose the War,” Vox Explain the News, November 15, 2016. Retrieved December 23, 2016, from http://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2016/11/15/13629814/trump-coalition-white-demographics-working-class.

  30. 30.

    Teixeira, “Trump’s Coalition Won the Demographic Battle. It’ll Still Lose the War.”

  31. 31.

    Teixeira, “Trump’s Coalition Won the Demographic Battle. It’ll Still Lose the War.”

  32. 32.

    Teixeira, “Trump’s Coalition Won the Demographic Battle. It’ll Still Lose the War.”

  33. 33.

    Henry C. Kenski, “The Gender Gap in a Changing Electorate,” in Carol Mueller, ed., The Politics of the Gender Gap: The Social Construction of Political Influence (Newbury Park; CA Sage Publications, 1988, pp. 36–69, and Kate Kenski and Kathleen Hall Jamieson, “The Gender Gap in Political Knowledge: Are Women Less Knowledgeable Than Men About Politics?” in Kathleen Hall Jamieson, ed., Everything You Want to Know About Politics…and Why You’re Wrong (New York: Basic Books, 2000), pp. 83–89.

  34. 34.

    Henry C. Kenski and Kate M. Kenski, “Explaining the Vote in the Election of 2008,” in Robert E. Denton Jr., ed., The 2008 Presidential Campaign: A Communication Perspective (Lanham, Maryland: Rowman and Littlefield Publishers, Inc., 2009), pp. 244–290.

  35. 35.

    Mark Mellman, Comments at the Annenberg Public Policy Center Election debriefing. Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania, December 3, 2004.

  36. 36.

    Ronald Brownstein, “The Four Groups That Will Decide the Presidential Race,” The Atlantic, November 7, 2016. Retrieved December 23, 2016, from https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/11/clinton-trump-demographics/506714/.

  37. 37.

    Carl M. Cannon, “How Donald Trump Won,” RealClearPolitics.com, November 10, 2016. Retrieved December 23, 2016, from http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/11/10/how-donald-trump-won-132321.html.

  38. 38.

    Cannon, “How Donald Trump Won.”

  39. 39.

    Cannon, “How Donald Trump Won.”

  40. 40.

    Cannon, “How Donald trump Won.”

  41. 41.

    Cannon, “How Donald Trump Won.”

References

  • Kenski, Henry C., and Kate M. Kenski. “Explaining the Vote in the Election of 2008,” In The 2008 Presidential Campaign: A Communication Perspective, edited by Robert E. Denton Jr., Lanham, Maryland: Rowman and Littlefield Publishers, Inc. 2009.

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Correspondence to Henry C. Kenski .

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Kenski, H.C., Kenski, K.M. (2017). Explaining the Vote in the Election of 2016: The Remarkable Come from Behind Victory of Republican Candidate Donald Trump. In: Denton Jr, R. (eds) The 2016 US Presidential Campaign. Political Campaigning and Communication. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-52599-0_11

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