Abstract
Often, we only have partial knowledge about a probability distribution, and we would like to select a single probability distribution \(\rho (x)\) out of all probability distributions which are consistent with the available knowledge. One way to make this selection is to take into account that usually, the values x of the corresponding quantity are also known only with some accuracy. It is therefore desirable to select a distribution which is the most robust—in the sense the x-inaccuracy leads to the smallest possible inaccuracy in the resulting probabilities. In this paper, we describe the corresponding most robust probability distributions, and we show that the use of resulting probability distributions has an additional advantage: it makes related computations easier and faster.
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Acknowledgements
We acknowledge the partial support of the Center of Excellence in Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai University, Thailand. This work was also supported in part by the National Science Foundation grants HRD-0734825 and HRD-1242122 (Cyber-ShARE Center of Excellence) and DUE-0926721, and by an award “UTEP and Prudential Actuarial Science Academy and Pipeline Initiative” from Prudential Foundation.
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Sriboonchitta, S., Nguyen, H.T., Kreinovich, V., Kosheleva, O. (2017). Robustness as a Criterion for Selecting a Probability Distribution Under Uncertainty. In: Kreinovich, V., Sriboonchitta, S., Huynh, VN. (eds) Robustness in Econometrics. Studies in Computational Intelligence, vol 692. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-50742-2_3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-50742-2_3
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