Reciprocal Cycles in International Politics: Summary and Conclusions

Abstract

Using the framework utilizing the variables of power symmetry, issue saliency, images, and domain of operation, some policy relevant observations are examined including conditions required for shifting the interaction from a negative to a positive cycle and vice versa. The framework analyzing conditions for the development of positive and negative reciprocal cycles is then used to evaluate present-day cases. Applying the framework to the contemporary case of US-China relations over the South China Sea (SCS) illustrates how difficult this case really is in more levels than usually presented. Then an analysis of US-Iran relations after the Iran nuclear deal suggests possibilities for nudging interactions into a positive reciprocal cycle.