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Feedback Mechanisms in the Postponement of Fertility in Spain

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Agent-Based Modelling in Population Studies

Part of the book series: The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis ((PSDE,volume 41))

Abstract

In this chapter we describe the process of fertility postponement initiated in Spain in the mid-1970s using a dynamic model that considers the interaction of four main factors. Rising economic uncertainty and the expansion of higher education provide the original impulse which is later amplified by the feedback generated via social interaction as young men and women start imitating the behavior of their peers and friends. As the pressure to conform to an early family formation standard is reduced, the postponement process gains momentum. This multiplier effect explains a substantial part of the observed trend, but its pace and extent also depend on the resistance exerted by social norms. Our model tries to capture the dynamic mechanism by which norms shape behaviors and behaviors shape norms, in a process of mutual dependence. This feedback loop between individual actions and aggregated outcomes allows us to bridge the micro and macro levels of analysis and it proves to be a key element in the explanation of the massive and ongoing transformation of fertility patterns in Spain in the last decades.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    According to Becker (1981) an income rise will not only increase the demand for children, but also the indirect costs of forming a family; i.e. the potential income and career opportunities that parents have to give up in order to spend time with their children. An income effect is observed when the demand for children is positively affected by an increase in resources, and a substitution effect is observed when the effect is negative.

  2. 2.

    As we model the effect of labor market exits exogenously, we need a set of initial probabilities that is net of the effect of unemployment to avoid an overestimation of this effect. Unfortunately, as the dataset we use for the estimation of the original probabilities does not contain information on the employment histories of the interviewees, we have to provide a rough estimate of the effect of unemployment. As we noted in Sect. 14.2.5, Spain did not have high levels of unemployment until the mid-1980s, which means that the effect of unemployment on our cohorts born in 1940–1960 would have been relatively mild. We assume a decreasing effect by age: compared with the original probabilities, the final probabilities are about 15 % higher at age 15, only around 5 % higher at age 30, and about the same by the end of the reproductive period at age 45, as shown in Fig. 14.7.

  3. 3.

    All these simulations were carried out with the following values of the global parameters described in Table 14.2: recurrence in unemployment σ = 70 %, maximum network size ν = 20, and fertility rate for parity 1+ f2 = 0. 15.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Political and Social Sciences, Pompeu Fabra University, Barcelona, Spain

    Daniel Ciganda

  2. Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark

    Francisco Villavicencio

  3. Max-Planck Odense Center on the Biodemography of Aging, Odense, Denmark

    Francisco Villavicencio

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  1. Daniel Ciganda
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Correspondence to Daniel Ciganda .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Centre for Sociological Research, University of Leuven, Leuven, Belgium

    André Grow

  2. Centre for Sociological Research, University of Leuven, Leuven, Belgium

    Jan Van Bavel

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Ciganda, D., Villavicencio, F. (2017). Feedback Mechanisms in the Postponement of Fertility in Spain. In: Grow, A., Van Bavel, J. (eds) Agent-Based Modelling in Population Studies. The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis, vol 41. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-32283-4_14

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