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Risk Analysis and Scenario Generation

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Designing Value-Creating Supply Chain Networks

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Abstract

On several occasions the previous chapters stress that some of the fundamental factors to consider when designing SCNs are random variables. In addition, companies may suffer from major disruptive events such as natural disasters, industrial accidents, supplier bankruptcies, and so forth. But, how can the vulnerabilities of a SCN be identified, the ups and downs of everyday business be anticipated, and the likelihood and the impact of catastrophic events be estimated? The answers to these questions provided in the chapter suggest that better SCN designs are obtained when considering sets of plausible future scenarios instead of a single expected future. The chapter also proposes an approach for modeling risk and for the generation of plausible future scenarios.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    See for instance FEMA’s methodology for estimating potential losses from disasters (www.fema.org/Hazus).

  2. 2.

    ​The indexes m and s are dropped in this example, because there is a single multi-hazard and a single capacity vulnerability source.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Université Laval, Quebec City, Canada

    Alain Martel

  2. KEDGE-Business School, Bordeaux, France

    Walid Klibi

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  1. Alain Martel
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  2. Walid Klibi
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Correspondence to Alain Martel .

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Martel, A., Klibi, W. (2016). Risk Analysis and Scenario Generation. In: Designing Value-Creating Supply Chain Networks. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-28146-9_10

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-28146-9_10

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  • Publisher Name: Springer, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-319-28144-5

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-319-28146-9

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