Abstract
In line with global demographic trends, the population of Australia is ageing. Nevertheless, rates of ageing are occurring unevenly between nations and across jurisdictions within these. Populations in the sparsely populated areas of developed nations are characteristically different from those in urban, peri-urban or rural parts. As the Australian State or Territory with the lowest median age and lowest proportion of seniors, the Northern Territory (NT) is only now seeing ageing manifest with projections suggesting a doubling in the proportion of the population aged 65 years and over by 2041. Unlike other jurisdictions, population ageing in the Northern Territory is influenced significantly by demographic change amongst Indigenous residents, with growth rates for those aged 65 and over anticipated exceed 5% per annum from 2011 to 2041. In this study, I report on a set ‘Service demand indicators’ for mapping out future demands for individual services in the NT and use population projections to indicate future service demands in the areas of aged care, health services, disability services, correctional services, education and housing demand based on anticipated shifts in the population structure. I also develop indicators of the future capacity of governments (NT and Australia as a whole) to provide services (which we have labelled as ‘Indicators of the future financial capacity to provide services’) based on dependency ratios (age dependency and overall dependency), workforce growth and growth in the age groups contributing most to personal income tax revenue streams for governments. Results demonstrate population ageing is an issue that does not occur in isolation, but is part of overall compositional change. In distributing finances to meet changing service demands, these relativities must be accounted for. Policy makers must be across long-term demographic changes and act pre-emptively according to anticipated changes in population structures.
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Taylor, A. (2016). Not Just Ageing: Policy and Service Delivery Implications from Changing Population Compositions in the Northern Territory of Australia. In: Wilson, T., Charles-Edwards, E., Bell, M. (eds) Demography for Planning and Policy: Australian Case Studies. Applied Demography Series, vol 7. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-22135-9_6
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