Abstract
Energy price forecasting is a relevant yet hard task in the field of multi-step time series forecasting. In this paper we compare a well-known and established method, ARMA with exogenous variables with a relatively new technique Gradient Boosting Regression. The method was tested on data from Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014 with a year long rolling window forecast. The results from the experiment reveal that a multi-model approach is significantly better performing in terms of error metrics. Gradient Boosting can deal with seasonality and auto-correlation out-of-the box and achieve lower rate of normalized mean absolute error on real-world data.
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Barta, G., Nagy, G.B.G., Kazi, S., Henk, T. (2015). GEFCOM 2014—Probabilistic Electricity Price Forecasting. In: Neves-Silva, R., Jain, L., Howlett, R. (eds) Intelligent Decision Technologies. IDT 2017. Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies, vol 39. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-19857-6_7
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-19857-6_7
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