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A Model of Decision Making

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Networks of Echoes

Part of the book series: Computational Social Sciences ((CSS))

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Abstract

One approach to understanding the behavior of groups is to sit in sidewalk cafes and watch the way the passing people talk, smile at one another and generally exchange pleasantries; observe the interchange between parents and children during meals in restaurants; and absorb the body language and voice patterns of colleagues having animated business discussions in coffee shops. All these observations are then organized, stripped of detail and synthesized to form a coherent view of how individuals interact with one another to form groups. But how valid are the conclusions drawn? To determine their reproducibility the observations should be repeated sitting in sidewalk cafes, restaurants and coffee shops in San Francisco, New York, Berlin, Moscow and else where in the world. This is how many of us would prefer to do science.

Since all models are wrong the scientist cannot obtain a “correct” one by excessive elaboration. On the contrary following William of Occam he should seek an economical description of natural phenomena. Just as the ability to devise simple but evocative models is the signature of the great scientist so overelaboration and overparameterization is often the mark of mediocrity…. George E. P. Box

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Physics, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA

    Bruce J. West & Malgorzata Turalska

  2. Information Sciences Directorate, Army Research Office, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA

    Bruce J. West

  3. Department of Physics, University of North Texas, Denton, TX, USA

    Paolo Grigolini

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  1. Bruce J. West
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  2. Malgorzata Turalska
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West, B.J., Turalska, M., Grigolini, P. (2014). A Model of Decision Making. In: Networks of Echoes. Computational Social Sciences. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-04879-6_3

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