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Space- and Time-Dependent Probabilities for Earthquake Fault Systems from Numerical Simulations: Feasibility Study and First Results

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Seismogenesis and Earthquake Forecasting: The Frank Evison Volume II

Part of the book series: Pageoph Topical Volumes ((PTV))

Abstract

In weather forecasting, current and past observational data are routinely assimilated into numerical simulations to produce ensemble forecasts of future events in a process termed “model steering”. Here we describe a similar approach that is motivated by analyses of previous forecasts of the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP). Our approach is adapted to the problem of earthquake forecasting using topologically realistic numerical simulations for the strike-slip fault system in California. By systematically comparing simulation data to observed paleoseismic data, a series of spatial probability density functions (PDFs) can be computed that describe the probable locations of future large earthquakes. We develop this approach and show examples of PDFs associated with magnitude M > 6.5 and M > 7.0 earthquakes in California.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Physics, University of California, Davis, USA

    Jordan Van Aalsburg, John B. Rundle & Paul B. Rundle

  2. Computational Science and Engineering Center, University of California, Davis, USA

    Jordan Van Aalsburg, John B. Rundle, Paul B. Rundle & Gleb Yakovlev

  3. Program in Public Health, University of California, Irvine, CA, 92697-3957, USA

    Lisa B. Grant

  4. Geology Department, University of California, Davis, USA

    Donald L. Turcotte

  5. Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, USA

    Andrea Donnellan

  6. Department of Earth Science, University of Western Ontario, London, ON, Canada

    Kristy F. Tiampo

  7. Instituto de Astronomía y Geodesia (CSIC-UCM), Facultad CC Matemáticas, Ciudad Universitaria, Plaza de Ciencias, 3, 28040, Madrid, Spain

    Jose Fernandez

Authors
  1. Jordan Van Aalsburg
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  2. John B. Rundle
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  3. Lisa B. Grant
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  4. Paul B. Rundle
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  5. Gleb Yakovlev
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  6. Donald L. Turcotte
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  7. Andrea Donnellan
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  8. Kristy F. Tiampo
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  9. Jose Fernandez
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Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Geophysics, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand

    Martha K. Savage  & Euan G. C. Smith  & 

  2. GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand

    David A. Rhoades  & Matthew C. Gerstenberger  & 

  3. Statistics Research Associates, PO Box 12649, Wellington, New Zealand

    David Vere-Jones

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Van Aalsburg, J. et al. (2010). Space- and Time-Dependent Probabilities for Earthquake Fault Systems from Numerical Simulations: Feasibility Study and First Results. In: Savage, M.K., Rhoades, D.A., Smith, E.G.C., Gerstenberger, M.C., Vere-Jones, D. (eds) Seismogenesis and Earthquake Forecasting: The Frank Evison Volume II. Pageoph Topical Volumes. Springer, Basel. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-0346-0500-7_9

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