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Identifying Indicators of Global Financial Crisis with Fuzzy Logic and Data Science: A Comparative Analysis Between Developing and Developed Economies

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Data Science and Multiple Criteria Decision Making Approaches in Finance

Part of the book series: Multiple Criteria Decision Making ((MCDM))

Abstract

The main purpose of this study is to define the leading indicators of the 2008 global financial crisis for both developing and developed economies. In this context, 16 different variables are defined with the help of literature review. These variables are weighted by considering the fuzzy DEMATEL approach and the most significant 8 variables are identified. In addition to this analysis, decision tree methodology is also taken into consideration to understand main determinants of the financial crisis. The findings show that growth rate and capital adequacy of the banking industry are accepted as the leading indicators of the global crisis for developed economies. On the other hand, it is also concluded that inflation and industry development are accepted as the indicator of the financial crisis in addition to the economic growth and capital adequacy of the banks for developing economies. While considering the results, it is recommended that developed countries should periodically control economic growth rate and capital adequacy ratio of the banks to understand whether they have a financial crisis risk or not. Furthermore, for developing countries, it is also recommended that inflation rate should be periodically controlled, and they should identify necessary actions in order to minimize inflation rate.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Kavacık South Campus, Istanbul Medipol University, Istanbul, Turkey

    Gökhan Silahtaroğlu

  2. School of Business, Istanbul Medipol University, Istanbul, Turkey

    Hasan Dinçer

  3. Business and Management, Istanbul Medipol University, Istanbul, Turkey

    Serhat Yüksel

Authors
  1. Gökhan Silahtaroğlu
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  2. Hasan Dinçer
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  3. Serhat Yüksel
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Appendices

Appendix 1

Key Term and Definition

GDP::

It is gross domestic product that can be calculated as the sum of consumption, private investment, government expenditure, and net export amount.

Appendix 2

Table 2.4 Rule set for developed countries which is generated by machine after training
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Table 2.5 Rule set for developing countries which is generated by machine after training
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Table 2.6 The developed countries analyzed in the study
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Table 2.7 The developing countries analyzed in the study
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Table 2.8 Initial direct-relation fuzzy matrix
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Table 2.9 Normalized direct-relation fuzzy matrix
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Table 2.10 Total-relation fuzzy matrix
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Table 2.11 Defuzzified total relation matrix and weights
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Table 2.12 Developed countries Decision Tree Accuracy Statistics of prediction
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Table 2.13 Developing countries Decision Tree Accuracy Statistics of prediction
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Table 2.14 Developed countries Artificial Neural Networks Accuracy Statistics
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Table 2.15 Developing countries Artificial Neural Networks Accuracy Statistics
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Silahtaroğlu, G., Dinçer, H., Yüksel, S. (2021). Identifying Indicators of Global Financial Crisis with Fuzzy Logic and Data Science: A Comparative Analysis Between Developing and Developed Economies. In: Data Science and Multiple Criteria Decision Making Approaches in Finance. Multiple Criteria Decision Making. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-74176-1_2

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