Abstract
The present concerns about irregular migration flows are hereby addressed in a long-term historical perspective through the lens of the topodynamic theory. Various cases of migrations and invasions that have had significant historical consequences are evoked (the fall of the Roman and Byzantine empires; the Mongol and Manchu invasions of China, etc.). The conventional thinking concerning the gears of the invasion mechanics is checked on the basis of recent facts and statistics in order to draw general conclusions.
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Notes
- 1.
The distinction between immigration and invasion is a matter of circumstances. A population that enters a state peacefully, with the approval or tolerance of the state, is considered to be an immigration, whereas a population that penetrates the same state militarily, uninvited or unwelcome, is perceived as being made of invaders, as the Mongols and the Manchus were by the Chinese citizens at the time of their arrival. Both kinds of population movements may have historical consequences.
- 2.
In March 2007, the number of illegal immigrants in the United States was estimated at 12 million, which is considerable for a country that spends a lot to control its borders. That number slightly declined thereafter, but the movement impulsed by the Honduras migrants in October 2018 has revived the fear of an invasion of illegal aliens in the United States.
- 3.
Among the more recent theories, let us mention, in sociology, the Transnational Social Spaces Theory (Pries 1999; Faist 2000), in macro-economics, the Dual Market Labour Theory (Piore 1979), in micro-economics, the New Economics of Migration (Stark and Bloom 1985), and, in spatial interaction, the Catastrophe Theory and Bifurcations (Wilson 1981).
- 4.
Ernest G. Ravenstein, “The Laws of Migration,” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society 48 (1885): 167–235, and 52 (1889): 241–301.
- 5.
- 6.
Gravity potential Gi at point i is given by the following equation:
$$G_{i} = \sum\limits_{j \ne i} {\frac{{m_{i} m_{j} }}{{d_{ij}^{\alpha } }}}$$where mi is the population at the ith point, dij is the distance between points i and j, and α is a positive real number representing the “deterrence effect” of distance in the inverse-distance gravity model (\({{m_{i} m_{j} } \mathord{\left/ {\vphantom {{m_{i} m_{j} } {d_{ij}^{\alpha } }}} \right. \kern-0pt} {d_{ij}^{\alpha } }}\)). Here α is equal to 2.
- 7.
A vector-resultant of gravity attraction corresponds to the vector-resultant of all the attractive forces that are exerted on a point i by all the other points in the system, those forces being calculated by means of a gravity model. It has a “norm,” that is, a length and a direction. Maps 2.3 and 2.4 represent only the directions.
- 8.
The region of origin of the Nigero-Congolese sub-group called the Bantu, who are mainly farmers, is situated in the region of the Benue River, a tributary of the Niger River, and of the Mount Cameroon Massif, at the present border of Nigeria and Cameroon. The expansion of the Bantu populations, which began around 3000 BC, constitutes one of the great phenomena of world’s history. See Luc-Normand Tellier, Urban World History (Cham, Switzerland, 2019), 144–146, Bernard Lugan, Histoire du Rwanda, de la Préhistoire à nos jours (Paris, Bartillat, 2001), and Bernard Lugan, Atlas historique de l’Afrique des origins à nos jours (Paris: Éditions du Rocher, 2001).
- 9.
Luc-Normand Tellier, Urban World History (Quebec: Presses de l’Université du Québec, 2009), 43.
- 10.
Igor M. Diakonoff and Philip L. Kohl, Early Antiquity (London and Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1991), 367–368. The following paragraphs are inspired by Luc-Normand Tellier, op. cit., 44–45.
- 11.
The Slavs differ from the Germans that include the Vikings, and the Normans originate from the Vikings.
- 12.
Sir Halford John Mackinder, The Scope and Methods of Geography and the Geographical Pivot of History (London: Papers of the Royal Geographical Society, 1951 edition).
- 13.
Gérard Chaliand, Guerres et civilisations (Paris: Odile Jacob, 2005).
- 14.
See Anthony King, Roman Gaul and Germany (London: British Museum Publications, 1990).
- 15.
Jared Diamond, Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies, (New York and London: W.W. Norton, 1997), 383.
- 16.
See: National Intelligence Council, Global Trends 2025, (Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 2008); Nicholas Stern (dir.), The Stern Review Report: the Economic of Climate Change, (London, U.K.: HM Treasury, 2006), 603 pages; Ian Morris, Why the West Rules for Now: The Patterns of History and What they Reveal About the Future (London, U.K.: Profile Books, 2010), 601–603.
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Tellier, LN., Marois, G. (2021). The “Invasion Peril” in Light of the Topodynamic Theory, and Some Recent Statistics. In: Kourtit, K., Newbold, B., Nijkamp, P., Partridge, M. (eds) The Economic Geography of Cross-Border Migration. Footprints of Regional Science(). Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-48291-6_2
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