Performing Base Case and Sensitivity Analyses

Abstract

At this point in the ROI analysis, many of the details of the process have been determined: We have defined the scope and perspective , identified the sources of the relevant costs and benefits , and established monetary equivalents for the MMA benefits we expect to observe. The next steps are to put it all together, lay out all the costs and benefits, and then calculate and interpret the resulting ROI. However, this can be complex and often involves several assumptions, especially if the analysis is prospective and performed as part of a proposal for funding for an initiative that has not yet taken place. Therefore, a ROI analysis with only a single calculation based on a single set of assumptions is woefully incomplete. The ROI analysis is intended to help demonstrate the merit of the initiative; it is critical to demonstrate the robustness of the potential return that can be expected. In the case of a retrospective ROI analysis after a completed initiative, the analysis needs to provide enough detail so that readers can understand where the value came from and whether any realized costs or benefits differed from what was anticipated and why. In this chapter, we will discuss how to perform base case and sensitivity ROI analyses and how to select what inputs or estimates to vary or adjust to provide a full picture of both costs and returns. In the next chapter, we will explore the roles these analyses play when crafting the message for the merits of a project or initiative.