Abstract
This chapter investigates the international business environment as well as the most salient threats to foreign investment since 1816. I examine four distinct periods: the era of Pax Britannica (1816–1914) in Sect. 2.1; the years 1914–1945 in Sect. 2.2; the Cold War (1945–1991) in Sect. 2.3; and the globalization years (since 1991) in Sect. 2.4. A greater emphasis is placed on the postwar decades.
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Notes
- 1.
Author calculations based on Angus Maddison’s historical statistics, available at www.ggdc.net/maddison/historical_statistics/horizontal-file_02-2010.xls.
- 2.
A total of 74 interstate conflicts can be identified based on Goldstein (1992). The period under consideration is 1816–1913.
- 3.
Author calculations based on Agoston and Masters (2009, p. 182).
- 4.
The terms expropriation, nationalization, takeover, and forced divestment are used interchangeably in the rest of this book.
- 5.
Author calculations based on Department of Commerce and Labor (1905, p. 625).
- 6.
Here the values compared are those for 1891 and 1890; author calculations based on Ford (1956, p. 149).
- 7.
A fundamental reason is that customs duties were relatively easy to levy in countries where tax collection was inefficient and that were waging interstate and/or civil wars (Coatsworth and Williamson 2004, p. 216).
- 8.
Foreign exchange risk was a serious threat to investors engaged in trade with peripheral economies. Bear in mind that, during 1880–1913, peripheral countries were either intermittent in their adherence to the gold standard or opted for floating–exchange rate regimes. In contrast, core economies never wavered from the gold standard (Flandreau and Zumer 2004, p. 129).
- 9.
Under “extraterritoriality,” foreign property rights were guaranteed by the extraterritorial application of European and US laws.
- 10.
- 11.
The defaults could take various forms; for details, see Gaillard (2014b, pp. 3–12).
- 12.
Author classifications based on Suter (1990, p. 283).
- 13.
In the United States, the so-called Alien Property Custodian confiscated German and Austrian properties during 1917–1918 (Potterf 1927, pp. 460–469).
- 14.
Article 297 stipulates that “the Allied and Associated Powers reserve the right to retain and liquidate all property, rights and interests belonging at the date of the coming into force of the present Treaty to German nationals, or companies controlled by them, within their territories, colonies, possessions and protectorates, including territories ceded to them by the present Treaty.”
- 15.
The United Kingdom was an exception; it was formally committed to the gold standard until March 1919 (Bordo 2005, p. 211).
- 16.
Author calculations based on Federico and Tena-Junguito’s (2016) database, available at https://e-archivo.uc3m.es/bitstream/handle/10016/22230/wp1601_data.xlsx. Export values are in 1913 constant prices.
- 17.
Idem.
- 18.
Moody’s Investors Service, “The Credit of Foreign Governments,” Moody’s Investment Letter, 3 April 1919.
- 19.
See Reinhart and Rogoff ’s (2011) database (available at www.carmenreinhart.com/data/browse-by-topic/topics/9).
- 20.
This decision favored British bankers, as well as direct and equity investors abroad, at the expense of exporters.
- 21.
The criteria for such risk assessment contrasted with those that prevailed before 1914, when adherence to the gold standard was viewed as a signal of financial robustness (Bordo and Rockoff 1996).
- 22.
For a given sovereign bond issuer, this preferred creditor status was mirrored in the lower yields observed for its League loans as compared with other bonds (Flores Zendejas 2017).
- 23.
Author calculations based on Federico and Tena-Junguito’s (2016) database, available at https://e-archivo.uc3m.es/bitstream/handle/10016/22230/wp1601_data.xlsx.
- 24.
Author calculations based on Jones (2005, p. 82) and on Federico and Tena-Junguito’s (2016) database, available at https://e-archivo.uc3m.es/bitstream/handle/10016/22230/wp1601_data.xlsx.
- 25.
Author calculations based on Zettler and Cutler (1952, p. 8) and on Angus Maddison’s historical statistics, available at www.ggdc.net/maddison/historical_statistics/horizontal-file_02-2010.xls. This 15-country sample consists of Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Cuba, France, Germany, Italy, Mexico, Peru, the United Kingdom, and Venezuela.
- 26.
Author classification based on www.proquest.com.
- 27.
See “Economic Consequences of Rearmament,” Barron’s, 25 May 1936; Standard Statistics, “Foreign Trade Outlook Despite War Dangers,” Standard Trade and Securities, 1 January 1937.
- 28.
For an exhaustive analysis, see Maurer (2013, pp. 260–278).
- 29.
Article 9 of the Convention states that “nationals and foreigners are under the same protection of the law and the national authorities and the foreigners may not claim rights other or more extensive than those of the nationals.”
- 30.
Author calculations based on Young (1930, pp. 12–13).
- 31.
The exceptions were Latin American economies, which actually prospered during WWII.
- 32.
- 33.
The IBRD is commonly referred to as the World Bank.
- 34.
- 35.
- 36.
- 37.
Author calculations based on Angus Maddison’s historical statistics, available at www.ggdc.net/maddison/historical_statistics/horizontal-file_02-2010.xls.
- 38.
The founding members of the Comecon were Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and the Soviet Union. In the following months, Albania and East Germany joined the organization.
- 39.
See Beers and de Leon-Manlagnit’s (2019) database.
- 40.
Even so, the Coordinating Committee for Multilateral Export Controls (CoCom)—established shortly after WWII by the United States and its allies—restricted technological transfers to the East. See Mastanduno (1992) for an exhaustive study of the CoCom.
- 41.
See https://www.usaid.gov/who-we-are/usaid-history for more information.
- 42.
Author calculations based on USAID data (available at www.nber.org).
- 43.
The bulk of the US assistance to Vietnam was remitted before the country’s pro-American regime’s fall in 1975. Egypt and Israel obtained 95% of their funds after 1970. Author calculations based on USAID data (available at www.nber.org).
- 44.
See Beers and de Leon-Manlagnit’s (2019) database.
- 45.
Author’s calculations based on USAID data, available at www.nber.org.
- 46.
Author’s calculations based on Becker and McClenahan Jr. (2003, pp. 306–314).
- 47.
- 48.
Author calculations based on www.un.org.
- 49.
In the history of decolonization, 1960 was a milestone because 17 African nations became independent in that year (www.un.org).
- 50.
The IFC is a member of the World Bank Group.
- 51.
Author calculations based on IFC (various reports).
- 52.
Author calculations based on IFC (various reports) and on Wells Fargo & Company (various reports).
- 53.
See https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/about_us/24.htm. During 1961–1991, OPEC expanded to include Algeria, Ecuador, Gabon, Indonesia, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates.
- 54.
Author calculations based on IMF (1978, p. 18; 1984, p. 23).
- 55.
Idem.
- 56.
The parties to this agreement were Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, (West) Germany, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Sweden, and the United Kingdom.
- 57.
The European Economic Community (EEC) was established in 1957 and included Belgium, France, (West) Germany, Italy, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands. In the 1970s and 1980s, the EEC expanded to include Denmark, Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, and the United Kingdom.
- 58.
The Bank for International Settlements (BIS 1964, p. 127) defines a eurodollar as “a dollar that has been acquired by a bank outside the United States and used directly or after conversion into another currency for lending to a non-bank customer.” Eurodollars are traded on offshore markets (initially in London) known as euromarkets.
- 59.
The SDR was initially defined as the equivalent of 0.888671 g of fine gold. Following the Bretton Woods system’s collapse, the SDR was redefined as a basket of currencies (see https://www.imf.org/en/About/Factsheets/Sheets/2016/08/01/14/51/Special-Drawing-Right-SDR).
- 60.
After stabilizing at more than $20 billion in the 1950s, US gold reserves declined from $19.5 billion in 1959 to less than $11 billion in March 1971 (IMF 1960, p. 60; 1971, p. 28).
- 61.
Author calculations based on IMF (1979, p. 59).
- 62.
Author calculations based on the Pacific Exchange Rate Service (available at http://fx.sauder.ubc.ca).
- 63.
Idem.
- 64.
In the 1980s, the currencies of France, Italy, and Ireland were frequently devalued and those of Germany and the Netherlands were often revalued (IMF, various years).
- 65.
Between June 1975 and June 1980, the US dollar depreciated against two-fifths of the currencies that were floating at the start of this period. Between June 1980 and June 1985, however, the US dollar appreciated substantially against almost all floating currencies. Author calculations based on IMF (1975, pp. 68–70; 1980, pp. 106–109; 1985, pp. 92–95).
- 66.
This risk was concomitant with the sovereign debt crisis of 1982; see Sect. 2.3.6.
- 67.
See Kaminsky et al. (1997) for a review of the literature on currency crises.
- 68.
Author calculations based on IMF (various reports).
- 69.
- 70.
The number of countries participating in GATT rounds increased from 23 for the first round (in 1947) to 123 for the Uruguay Round (https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/whatis_e/tif_e/fact4_e.htm).
- 71.
Author classification based on Hiscox and Kastner (2002) and on Angus Maddison’s historical statistics, available at www.ggdc.net/maddison/historical_statistics/horizontal-file_02-2010.xls. The selection criterion for these estimates is GDP in 1960. The 12 countries included in the sample are Egypt, Nigeria, and South Africa; China, India, and Indonesia; Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico; and Iran, Iraq, and Turkey.
- 72.
Author calculations based on https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/dispu_e/gt47ds_e.htm.
- 73.
See Sect. 2.3.5.2 for analysis of the enhanced role of export credit agencies since the 1960s.
- 74.
The integration of China into world trade and business is analyzed in Sect. 2.4.3.
- 75.
The advocates of ISI strategies assumed that the income elasticity of demand for imports of LDCs’ nonindustrial products by developed countries was lower than the income elasticity of demand for imports of industrial products. If so, then ISI could probably correct the disparity in income elasticities (Prebisch 1959)—an outcome that supported the establishment of tariffs and quotas as well as the subsidizing of domestic producers or foreign direct investors. The ISI policies were also intended to preserve foreign exchange.
- 76.
These economies were commonly referred to as newly industrialized countries (NICs).
- 77.
- 78.
The US retaliation proceeded under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, which authorized the president to take all appropriate steps to disallow any foreign government’s policy that restricted US commerce. The thrust of this section illustrated Washington’s awareness of the need for a prompt response to protectionist policies adopted by trade partners.
- 79.
- 80.
Author calculations based on Pizer and Cutler (1956, p. 15) and https://www.bea.gov/international/di1usdbal.
- 81.
There are three reasons why this section focuses on nationalization risk. First, starting in the 1950s, that threat became a major concern among MNCs operating in LDCs. Second, other risks (e.g., subsidies to local producers, exchange controls, other macroeconomic risks) were addressed in Sects. 2.3.3 and 2.3.4. Third, and as described in what follows, expropriation risk turned out to be a driver of political and country risk analysis.
- 82.
The Arab oil-exporting countries referenced here are Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
- 83.
Only the starting year of the nationalization process is indicated.
- 84.
- 85.
- 86.
Author calculations based on O’Sullivan (2005, pp. 51–64).
- 87.
These avenues of redress are designed to resolve a large set of investment disputes and not exclusively those arising out of expropriation acts. However, it is their capacity to deal with nationalization problems that is studied here.
- 88.
For instance, in the 1977 dispute between Texaco and the Libyan government, the ICJ arbitrator delivered an award on the merits in favor of the company (see Von Mehren 1978).
- 89.
- 90.
Although the ICC Court of Arbitration’s work is confidential, some information is available regarding the disputes stemming from expropriation; see, for example, the ICC award made in Case no. 2139 in 1974: https://www.trans-lex.org/202139/_/icc-award-no-2139-yca-1978-at-220-et-seq-
- 91.
For an early ICSID award in connection with an expropriation case, see AGIP S.p.A. v. People’s Republic of the Congo (ICSID Case no. ARB/77/1); for additional details, see Baker (1999, p. 76).
- 92.
The United States passed additional laws that provided for retaliation against expropriating countries. Examples include the González Amendment of 1972 (https://history.house.gov) and Section 502(b) of the Trade Act of 1974.
- 93.
Some formal claims agreements were settled several decades after the expropriation occurred; see FCSC (2018).
- 94.
- 95.
- 96.
Two important reviews emerged a few years later: the Columbia Journal of World Business in 1965 (continued as Journal of World Business) and the Journal of International Business Studies in 1970.
- 97.
The increasing threat of nationalization in LDCs may explain the development of these ratings. Yet one could advance another reason—namely, the growing share of manufacturing in total US investments abroad. Because industrialists generally had more options (than did mining and oil companies) when selecting a host country, they needed some tools to discriminate among potential recipients.
- 98.
F. T. Haner founded BERI in 1966 after working several years for US companies; www.beri.com/Dr.-F.T.-Haner.aspx. For a thorough analysis of BERI methodologies, see Haner and Ewing (1985).
- 99.
- 100.
- 101.
See Moody’s Bond Survey, 31 January 1977 and 27 April 1981.
- 102.
Author calculations based on IBRD (1953a, pp. 26–27).
- 103.
Author calculations based on Avramovic et al. (1964, pp. 104–105) and World Bank (1985). The 34 countries in the sample are: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Egypt (formerly United Arab Republic), El Salvador, Ethiopia, Greece, Guatemala, Honduras, India, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Liberia, Mexico, Myanmar (formerly Burma), Nicaragua, Pakistan, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, the Philippines, Portugal, Sri Lanka (formerly Ceylon), Syria, Thailand, Turkey, Uruguay, Venezuela, and Yugoslavia.
- 104.
Author calculations based on Avramovic et al. (1964, pp. 104–105) and World Bank (1985). The 22 countries in the sample are: Benin (formerly Dahomey), Burkina Faso (formerly Upper Volta), Burundi, Cameroon, the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of Congo (formerly Zaire), Gabon, Ghana, Guinea, Ivory Coast, Mauritania, Morocco, Niger, Nigeria, the Republic of Congo, Rwanda, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Sudan, Togo, and Tunisia.
- 105.
Author calculations based on Exim Bank and World Bank annual reports for fiscal years 1950–1960. A small part of the credits authorized by the Exim Bank went to LDCs’ private firms but with no public guarantee.
- 106.
Multilateral loans were driven by the activities not only of the World Bank but also of, among others, the Inter-American Development Bank and the Asian Development Bank (established in 1959 and 1966, respectively).
- 107.
Author calculations based on World Bank (1975, p. 91; 1983, p. 141).
- 108.
See www.clubdeparis.org.
- 109.
See also Charles N. Stabler, “Zaire’s Lenders Hope Accord to Restore Creditworthiness Will Be Model to Others,” Wall Street Journal, 9 November 1976. The private creditors affected by the default organized themselves into an informal group called the London Club.
- 110.
Extensive meetings and exchanges of information between the IMF and commercial banks were also an important aspect of their cooperation (see Sgard 2016).
- 111.
Author calculation based on Cruces and Trebesch’s (2013) database and www.clubdeparis.org.
- 112.
Author calculation based on Cruces and Trebesch’s (2013) database.
- 113.
Securitization paved the way for implementation of the Brady deals in the 1990s (see Sect. 2.4.4.2).
- 114.
Author calculation based on Cruces and Trebesch’s (2013) database.
- 115.
See https://datahelpdesk.worldbank.org/knowledgebase/articles/381934-what-is-the-external-debt-reporting-system-drs and World Bank (1985, p. ix).
- 116.
The defaulted debt owed to the World Bank was negligible until the mid-1980s. Thereafter, it increased but remained significantly lower than that owed to the IMF; see Beers and de Leon-Manlagnit’s (2019) database.
- 117.
The rating system was discontinued in 1977 but resumed ten years later (Feinberg 1982, p. 46; “Ratings by Ex-Im Bank,” New York Times, 9 March 1987).
- 118.
David R. Francis, “Banks Tighten Credit Ratings to Identify Overseas Risks,” New York Times, 15 May 1977.
- 119.
- 120.
Institutional Investor, September 1979, p. 243.
- 121.
Euromoney, October 1979, p. 130.
- 122.
- 123.
- 124.
Globalization refers to “the growing interdependence of the world’s economies, cultures, and populations, brought about by cross-border trade in goods and services, technology, and flows of investment, people, and information” (see https://www.piie.com/microsites/globalization/what-is-globalization).
- 125.
The term “Washington” refers to the US Congress, the Federal Reserve Board, US economic agencies, and Washington-based international financial institutions and think tanks that agreed with Williamson’s proposals.
- 126.
The Washington Consensus was not a “neoliberal” agenda because it did not advocate cutbacks in social welfare programs, deregulation of the financial sector, massive tax cuts, and so forth.
- 127.
According to group.atradius.com, www.coface.com, www.credendo.com, www.eulerhermes.com, www.ksure.or.kr, and www.sacesimest.it.
- 128.
- 129.
- 130.
Author calculations based on Moody’s and S&P’s databases.
- 131.
Author analysis based on search.proquest.com and www.jstor.org.
- 132.
Economic size is based on 1990 gross domestic product.
- 133.
Most frequently, the magnitude of these crises obliged the IMF to intervene as lender of last resort (see Sect. 2.4.4.3).
- 134.
Monsoonal effects are caused by exogenous common shocks that affect several economies, whereas spillovers involve a shock—often in an emerging country—whose effects spread to interconnected and neighboring countries.
- 135.
The study of financial innovation is beyond the scope of this book, but the factors that drove the creation of new financial instruments—and led to their extensive use by international investors—certainly merit further examination.
- 136.
In “finance” capitalism, the role and influence of financial institutions are so disproportionate that they tend to affect the interests of other economic sectors and taxpayers.
- 137.
These figures are based on the World Bank’s World Development Indicators.
- 138.
Quantitative easing consists of purchasing government securities (and possibly other securities) in order to increase the money supply and to stimulate lending.
- 139.
In 1991, Washington balanced its current account. Twenty-five years later, it posted a $452 billion deficit while Tokyo and Beijing reported an aggregated $383 billion surplus (World Bank’s World Development Indicators).
- 140.
China adopted an accommodative monetary policy following the East Asian crisis but did not significantly raise its benchmark interest rate thereafter (Bell and Feng 2013, pp. 178–208). This new pattern’s effects on financial globalization were limited owing to the Chinese economy’s relatively small extent of financial openness.
- 141.
- 142.
Author calculations based on https://unctad.org and the World Bank’s World Development Indicators.
- 143.
- 144.
See “Legend in the Making,” The Economist, 13 September 2001, and Sumner Lemon, “Lenovo Completes Purchase of IBM’s PC Unit,” PC World, 2 May 2005.
- 145.
See M. Gunther, “Warren Buffett Takes Charge,” CNN Money, 13 April 2009 (available at https://money.cnn.com/2009/04/13/technology/gunther_electric.fortune), and J. Cobb, “China’s BYD Becomes World’s Third-Largest Plug-in Car Maker,” Hybrid Cars, 7 November 2016 (available at https://www.hybridcars.com/chinas-byd-becomes-worlds-third-largest-plug-in-car-maker).
- 146.
Author calculations based on https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/datasets.
- 147.
For an exhaustive analysis of the EU’s financial mechanisms, see Bianco (2015).
- 148.
Greece is a dramatic illustration. Prior to its joining the eurozone in 2001, the drachma had depreciated by some 14% annually against the Deutsche mark during 1973–1994 (author computation based on Frieden 2015, p. 154).
- 149.
Established in 1983, the IIF is one of the financial industry’s leading associations. “Its mission is to support the financial industry in the prudent management of risks; to develop sound industry practices; and to advocate for regulatory, financial and economic policies that are in the broad interests of its members and foster global financial stability and sustainable economic growth” (https://www.iif.com/about-us).
- 150.
Author calculation based on the World Bank’s World Development Indicators. The countries under consideration are the low- and middle-income economies whose total public and public-guaranteed external debt exceeded $10 billion (US) in 2016. Six countries are excluded because of insufficient data for 1991. The 34 countries included in this data set are: Angola, Bangladesh, Brazil, Bulgaria, China, Colombia, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, India, Indonesia, Jordan, Kenya, Lebanon, Mexico, Morocco, Myanmar, Nigeria, Pakistan, Peru, the Philippines, Romania, Russia, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Tanzania, Thailand, Tunisia, Turkey, Venezuela, and Vietnam.
- 151.
For example, the so-called BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) were especially successful in cutting the share of their public debt denominated in foreign currency or indexed to a foreign currency.
- 152.
Author calculations based on the World Bank’s World Development Indicators.
- 153.
The pro-cyclical effects of rating downgrades were obvious in November–December 1997 during the East Asian crisis (Ferri et al. 1999) and between December 2009 and April 2010 during the Greek debt crisis (Gaillard 2011, pp. 173–185). Sinclair (2005, pp. 160–167) analyzes how the East Asian crisis undermined the CRAs’ legitimacy.
- 154.
Increased financial globalization prompted Moody’s and S&P to relax their policy on this matter in the 2000s. In 2011, however, very few debt issuers were assigned a FC rating higher than that of their government (see S&P 2011).
- 155.
The Council of the Corporation of Foreign Bondholders (arguably the most important association of bondholders in history) was liquidated in 1988, a few months prior to the resumption of sovereign bond markets.
- 156.
See Beers and de Leon-Manlagnit’s (2019) database.
- 157.
- 158.
A member of the World Bank Group, the IDA lends money on concessional terms to the world’s poorest countries.
- 159.
See www.clubdeparis.org.
- 160.
See Beers and de Leon-Manlagnit’s (2019) database.
- 161.
Michel Camdessus (2014, p. 309), then Managing Director of the IMF, reports that Stanley Fischer (then First Deputy Managing Director) feared the Mexican crisis endangered Western civilization.
- 162.
The Asian Development Bank replaced the IaDB in resolving the East Asian crisis.
- 163.
Only 29 countries lapsed into default on their FC bond debt during 1991–2016; some of them defaulted several times (author calculations based on the database of Beers and de Leon-Manlagnit 2019).
- 164.
Author calculations based on Beers and de Leon-Manlagnit’s (2019) database.
- 165.
- 166.
Author calculations based on the World Bank’s World Development Indicators. The G20 comprises Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, the European Union, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States. It accounted for more than 80% of merchandise trade in 2016 (author calculation based on https://data.wto.org).
- 167.
- 168.
- 169.
The “protection and security” provisions require that host countries take measures to prevent the destruction of an investor’s property.
- 170.
About 33% of the BITs that entered into force during 2016 did not involve a high-income economy, compared with less than 12% in 1991 (see https://investmentpolicy.unctad.org/international-investment-agreements/advanced-search).
- 171.
The “first unbundling” was the separation of production and consumption locations that occurred in the nineteenth century.
- 172.
- 173.
This ranking is based on the total value of foreign assets. The TNI is calculated as the average of the following three ratios: foreign assets to total assets, foreign sales to total sales, and foreign employment to total employment; author calculations based on UNCTAD (1998, pp. 36–38) and https://unctad.org.
- 174.
Author calculations based on UNCTAD (1998, pp. 36–38) and https://unctad.org.
- 175.
Author calculations based on the Pacific Exchange Rate Service; available at http://fx.sauder.ubc.ca.
- 176.
Author calculations based on https://www.globaltradealert.org.
- 177.
Author calculations based on https://icsid.worldbank.org/en/Pages/cases/AdvancedSearch.aspx.
- 178.
These issues are partly addressed by the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Report and A. T. Kearney’s Foreign Direct Investment Confidence Index.
- 179.
See https://www.dnb.com.
- 180.
The Brexit vote and the election of Donald Trump in 2016 are two illustrations.
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Gaillard, N. (2020). Two Centuries of Country Risk, 1816–2016. In: Country Risk. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-45788-4_2
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