Abstract
Mega-projects play a foremost role not only in developed countries, but mainly in developing countries in several respects: political dynamics, social effects, and economic fallout (see Bovensiepen and Meitzner Yoder in Asia Pac J Anthropol 19(5):381–394, 2018, [4]). As correctly stated by van Wee and Tavasszy in Decision-making on mega-projects—cost-benefit analysis, planning and innovation, pp 40–65, 2008, [31], first, they are heavily under debate at the political level because of their economic impacts and important budget implications; in fact mega-projects are “large-scale, complex ventures that typically cost $1 billion or more, take many years to develop and build, involve multiple public and private stakeholders, are transformational, and impact millions of people” (see Flyvbjerg in The Oxford handbook of megaproject management. Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp 1–18, 2017, [15]). Second, there is a lively debate also among scholars and practitioners owing to the huge cost escalation and schedule delay of these projects (see Flyvbjerg et al. in Megaprojects and risk: an anatomy of ambition. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2003a, [8], Odeck in Transp Policy 11(1):43–53, 2004, [22]), but also due to the uncertainty of their wider economic effects, which can be interpreted as related externalities.
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Notes
- 1.
The main projects of the Megaprojects EU Cost Action are the Seville Metro Line and the Zagreb on the Sava River in Croatia, those of the OMEGA research are the Lignes à Grande Vitesse (LGV) Méditerranée and the Athens Metro Base (AMB) Project, and those of the NETLIPSE network are the Highway A73-South in The Netherlands and the Lötschberg Base Tunnel in Switzerland.
- 2.
Whereas the evaluation is intended to be the process of determining the worth of something, the valuation is the estimation of something’s monetary worth.
- 3.
Whereas CEA is a form of economic analysis that compares the relative costs and outcomes (effects) of different courses of action, CUA is an economic analysis used to evaluate medical-health investment projects in which the incremental cost of a program from a particular point of view is compared to the incremental health improvement expressed in the unit of quality adjusted life years (QALYs).
- 4.
Because sometimes it is impossible to give a monetary value to the costs or to the benefits, Guess and Farnham [17] suggest to use the Risk Analysis (RA) method, which “consists of the repeated random extraction of a set of values for the critical variables, taken within the respective defined intervals, and then calculating the performance indices for the project resulting from each set of extracted values” (see [5], p. 63).
- 5.
Methods frequently used to estimate these input parameters are Scenario Analysis (SA), Decision Trees (DT), and Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS).
- 6.
Whereas if a project’s \(NPV\) is positive or negative, then the project is expected to result in a net gain or loss respectively, if a project’s \(NPV\) is zero then the project is not expected to result in any significant gain or loss, and thus the investment decision has to be based on non-monetary factors.
- 7.
Following the same logic used for the \(NPV\), whereas if a project’s \(PI\) is greater or smaller than 1, then the project is expected to result in a net gain or loss respectively, if a project’s \(PI\) is equal to 1 then the project is not expected to result in any significant loss or gain, and thus the investment decision has to be based on non-monetary factors.
- 8.
The discounted pay-back time is computed as \(NPV = \mathop \sum \nolimits_{t = 0}^{T} CF_{t} /\left( {1 + r} \right)^{t} \Rightarrow \mathop \sum \nolimits_{t = 0}^{PBT} CF_{t} /\left( {1 + r} \right)^{t} = 0\); note that the discounting lengthens the recovery period.
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Platoni, S., Timpano, F. (2020). The Economics of Mega-projects. In: Favari, E., Cantoni, F. (eds) Megaproject Management. SpringerBriefs in Applied Sciences and Technology(). Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-39354-0_4
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