Abstract
As the “babies” of the Baby-Boom continue to age, the oldest will reach age 100 in 2046, which is less than 30 years from now. Just as the number of teenagers grew rapidly in the 1960s, and the number of retirees in the 2010s, we expect that the 100+ population will grow substantially in the 2040s and thereafter. While we know that the aging of the baby boomers will contribute to the future growth in the centenarian population, we do not know exactly how much growth to anticipate. Larger cohorts moving into this age group will inevitably increase the size of this population. However, other factors such as immigration and improvements in survivorship will ultimately determine how much growth we will see in the future 100+ population.
This chapter is released to inform interested parties and encourage discussion of work in progress. The views expressed on statistical, methodological, and technical issues are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the U.S. Census Bureau.
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Notes
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The low mortality countries we considered are Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Japan, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, UK. We used data for these countries from the Human Mortality Database.
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Johnson, S.L., Hogan, H. (2020). Babies No Longer: Projecting the 100+ Population. In: Singelmann, J., Poston, Jr, D. (eds) Developments in Demography in the 21st Century. The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis, vol 48. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-26492-5_7
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-26492-5_7
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