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Complexity of Scenarios of Future Health: Integrating Policies and Laws

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Law, Public Policies and Complex Systems: Networks in Action

Part of the book series: Law, Governance and Technology Series ((LGTS,volume 42))

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Abstract

In Southeast Asia, regional institutions insist on the crucial role of innovative research to address sustainable development challenges. Among those challenges, the increasing human dominance of the global landscape, particularly in regard to forest cover loss is of major concern. Such dramatic habitat changes are accelerating the biodiversity loss. This reduction in biodiversity through altered landscapes due to urbanization and agricultural intensification appears linked to major epidemiological changes in human diseases with higher disease risks and the emergence of novel pathogens resulting from increased contacts between wildlife, domesticated animals and humans.

It appears necessary to investigate the multiple impacts of the intensification of the circulation along the economic corridor Thailand-Laos (linking Myanmar to Vietnam) on the evolution of infectious diseases of public health interests. Integrating the various dimensions of complexity thanks to disciplines such as ecology and environmental sciences, health sciences, policies and law, we analyse retrospectively, and comparatively infectious diseases’ dynamics associated to policies, land use and biodiversity changes. The need of prospective scenarios of health that are embedded in the socio-ecosystems is crucial: we will thus produce scenarios of future health embodied in the One Health approach at the human-animal-environment interface and directed towards decisions-makers or communities concerned at the national or local scale.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    ANR Project BiodivHealthSEA “Local impacts and perceptions of global changes: Biodiversity and Health in Southeast Asia” (2012–2016) and ANR Project Ceropath “Community Ecology of Rodents and their Pathogens in Southeast Asia” (2007–2011).

  2. 2.

    https://www.cbd.int/sp/. Accessed 25 Feb 2018.

  3. 3.

    https://www.cbd.int/sp/targets/. Accessed 25 Feb 2018.

  4. 4.

    See e.g. https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/emissions_scenarios.pdf. Accessed 25 Feb 2018.

  5. 5.

    See https://www.ipbes.net/scenarios. Accessed 25 Feb 2018.

  6. 6.

    For simplicity, we will consider here that the term “policy” also includes the class of norms and legal regulations. This shortcut is justified by the equally normative nature of public policies whose action aims to reach a different state of affairs than the current state.

  7. 7.

    A change of state of a resource can also lead to the design and implementation of a targeted policy.

  8. 8.

    The processes themselves can be modified: the impact of deforestation on the water cycle—on runoff, recharge of groundwater, etc.—or soil depletion is a known example.

  9. 9.

    From the point of view of modelling, such choices are guided by sensitivity analyses (see below).

  10. 10.

    Note, however, that this procedure cannot guarantee that another system of formal representations could pass this comparison test with the empirical data in just the same way. We will not develop this point, which raises questions about the ethics of modelling that we address elsewhere (see Mazzega 2018 submitted).

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Acknowledgements

This work is a contribution to the ANR Project FutureHealthSEA (n° ANR-17-CE35-0003-02) “Predictive scenarios of health in Southeast Asia: linking land use and climate changes to infectious diseases” (PIs: S. Morand and C. Lajaunie). The Ecology and Environment Institute of the National Centre for Scientific Research (InEE CNRS, France) supports the International Multidisciplinary Thematic Network “Biodiversity, Health and Societies in Southeast Asia,” Thailand (PI: S. Morand, CNRS/CIRAD) to which this study also contributes.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. INSERM, CERIC, UMR DICE 7318, CNRS, Aix Marseille University, University of Toulon, University of Pau and Pays Adour, Aix-en-Provence, France

    Claire Lajaunie

  2. Strathclyde Centre for Environmental Law and Governance (SCELG), University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, UK

    Claire Lajaunie & Pierre Mazzega

  3. CNRS ISEM/CIRAD ASTRE, Faculty of Veterinary Technology, Kasetsart University, Bangkok, Thailand

    Serge Morand

  4. UMR5563 GET Geosciences Environment Toulouse, CNRS/University of Toulouse, Toulouse, France

    Pierre Mazzega

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  1. Claire Lajaunie
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Correspondence to Claire Lajaunie .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Univ Lyon, Jean Moulin, iaelyon, Magellan, Lyon, France

    Romain Boulet

  2. DICE International, Comparative and European Laws, INSERM, Aix en Provence, France

    Claire Lajaunie

  3. Geosciences Environment Toulouse, CNRS, Toulouse, France

    Pierre Mazzega

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Lajaunie, C., Morand, S., Mazzega, P. (2019). Complexity of Scenarios of Future Health: Integrating Policies and Laws. In: Boulet, R., Lajaunie, C., Mazzega, P. (eds) Law, Public Policies and Complex Systems: Networks in Action. Law, Governance and Technology Series, vol 42. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-11506-7_6

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