Abstract
In previous centuries, sovereigns often went bankrupt. For example, Spain defaulted three times during the Golden Century; it defaulted seven more times in the seventeenth, eighteenth, and nineteenth centuries. France defaulted eight times between 1500 and 1800. In the nineteenth century, Austria-Hungary and Prussia defaulted five times. These defaults, which involved both colonial and continental powers, show how difficult it has been to assess sovereign creditworthiness (see Reinhart and Rogoff 2009; Suter and Stamm 1992; Winkler 1933; Wynne 1951 for an exhaustive view of sovereign defaults occurred before the twentieth century).
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Notes
- 1.
The list of sovereign securities consisted of Argentinean, Austrian, Belgian, Brazilian, British, Canadian, Danish, Dutch, German, and Mexican bonds (Moody 1900, pp. 275–293).
- 2.
Author’s computations.
- 3.
Fitch Bond Books (1936, 1938, 1939).
- 4.
Moody’s Manual of Investments – American and Foreign Government Securities (1940), Poor’s Volume (1940), Standard Bond Descriptions (1940), Fitch Bond Book (1940).
- 5.
Foreign Bondholders Protective Council (1950), Report 1946 through 1949, p. 362.
- 6.
See Strange (1967) for an unconventional yet correct argument that sovereign defaults were likely to increase.
- 7.
Standard & Poor’s Corporation Records (1955), Moody’s Municipal and Government Manual (1955), Fitch Bond Book (1955).
- 8.
For instance: Moody’s Bond Survey, “Brazilian Government, State & Municipal Dollar Bonds,” 19 June 1944, and Moody’s Bond Survey, “Peru’s Final Debt Settlement Offer,” 26 January 1953.
- 9.
For instance: Moody’s Bond Survey, “International & Foreigns – Currencies Again in Crisis,” 25 November 1968; and Moody’s Bond Survey, “International Monetary Conditions and the U.S. Economy,” 31 May 1971.
- 10.
Moody’s Bond Survey, “International Bonds Rated During 1975,” 5 January 1976.
- 11.
Moody’s Bond Survey, 3, 10, and 31 October 1977.
- 12.
Interview with David Levey (Managing Director, Sovereign Risk Unit, Moody’s Investors Service until July 2004), 16 December 2003, New York.
- 13.
This evolution accelerated as new countries issued bonds in USD (Italy in 1986 and Hungary in 1989): Moody’s Bond Surveys, 20 October 1986 and 24 July 1989.
- 14.
Moody’s Bond Survey, “Sovereign Outlook 1988,” 18 January 1988.
- 15.
Standard & Poor’s CreditWeek, 28 March 1994.
- 16.
In 1994, Brady bonds represented 61% of the negotiable debt of emerging countries (http://www.emta.org).
- 17.
Most Brady bonds were assigned a rating shortly after their issuance.
- 18.
http://www.worldbank.org, Fitch (2002) and http://www.fitchratings.com.
- 19.
S&P (2003) and http://www.standardandpoors.com.
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Gaillard, N. (2012). The Booms and Busts of the Sovereign Rating Activity. In: A Century of Sovereign Ratings. Springer, New York, NY. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-0523-8_2
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