Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Sensitivity of the Regional Water Balance in the Columbia River Basin to Climate Variability: Application of a Spatially Distributed Water Balance Model

  • Chapter
Watershed Management

Abstract

A one-dimensional water balance model was developed and used to simulate the water balance for the Columbia River Basin. The model was run over a 10 km digital elevation grid representing the U.S. portion of the basin. The regional water balance was calculated using a monthly time step for a relatively wet year (1972 water year), a relatively dry year (1977 water year), and a double (2xCO2) climate scenario. Input data, spatially distributed over the grid, included precipitation, maximum soil moisture storage capacity, potential evapotranspiration (PET), and threshold baseflow. The model output provides spatially distributed surfaces of actual evapotranspiration (ET), runoff, and soil storage. Model performance was assessed by comparing modeled ET and runoff with the input precipitation data, and by comparing modeled runoff with measured runoff. The model reasonably partitions incoming precipitation to evapotranspiration and runoff. However, modeled total annual runoff was significantly less than measured runoff, primarily because precipitation is underestimated by the network of measurement stations and because of limitations associated with the interpolation procedure used to distribute the precipitation across the grid. Estimated precipitation is less than measured runoff, a physical impossibility. Under warmer 2xC02 climate conditions (January 4.0°K warmer, July 6.5°K warmer), the model predicts that PET increases by about 80%, ET increases, and runoff and soil moisture decrease. Under these climate conditions, the distribution and composition of forests in the region would change dramatically, and water resources would become more limited.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Log in via an institution
Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 84.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  • Anderson, E.A. 1973. National Weather Service river forecast system: snow accumulation and ablation model. Technical Memorandum NWS HYDRO-17. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Springs, Maryland, USA.

    Google Scholar 

  • Baumgartner, A., and E. Reichel. 1975. The world water balance. Elsevier Scientific Publications. Amsterdam. The Netherlands.

    Google Scholar 

  • Beaty, C.B. 1975. Sublimation or melting: observations from the White Mountains, California and Nevada, USA. Journal of Glaciology 14: 275–286.

    Google Scholar 

  • Brady. N.C. 1974. The nature and properties of soils. Macmillan, New York, New York, USA.

    Google Scholar 

  • Brutsaert, W. 1982. Evaporation into the atmosphere. D. Reidel, Dordrecht, The Netherlands.

    Google Scholar 

  • Budyko, M.I. 1974. Climate and life. Academic Press. New York. New York. USA.

    Google Scholar 

  • Burnash, R., R. Ferral. and R. McGuire. 1973. A generalized streamflow simulation system. Technical Report, Joint Federal-State River Forecast Center. Sacramento. California, USA.

    Google Scholar 

  • Campbell, W.G., D. Marks, J.J. Kineman, and R.T. Lozar. 1990. A geographic data base for modeling the role of the biosphere in climate change. Chapter 2 in H. Gucinski, D. Marks, and D.P. Turner, editors. Biospheric feedbacks to climate change: the sensitivity of regional trace gas emissions, evapotranspiration, and energy balance to vegetation redistribution; status of ongoing research. United States Environmental Protection Agency EPA/600/3-90/078.

    Google Scholar 

  • Daubenmire, R. 1968. Soil moisture in relation to vegetation distribution in the mountains of Northern Idaho. Ecology 49: 431–438.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Davis, R.E., J. Dozier, and D. Marks. 1984. Micrometeorological measurements and instrumentation in support of remote sensing observations of an alpine snow cover. Pages 161–164 in Proceedings of the Western Snow Conference, 52nd Annual Meeting, April 17–19, 1984, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA.

    Google Scholar 

  • De Jong. R., C.A. Campbell, and W. Nicholaichuk. 1983. Water retention equations and their relationship to soil organic matter and particle size distribution for disturbed samples. Canadian Journal of Soil Science 63: 291–302.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Denmead. O.T., and R.H. Shaw. 1962. Availability of soil water to plants as affected by soil moisture content and meteorological conditions. Agronomy Journal 45: 385–390.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dickinson. R.E. 1983. Land surface processes and climate: surface albedos and energy balance. Advances in Geophysics 25: 305–353.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dickinson, R.E. 1986. How will climate change? The climate system and modelling of future climate. Pages 207–270 in B. Bolin, B.R. Doos, J. Jager, and R.A. Warrick, editors. The greenhouse effect, climatic change, and ecosystems. SCOPE 29. John Wiley and Sons. Chichester, England.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dickinson. R.E., and R.J. Cicerone. 1986. Future global warming from atmospheric trace gasses. Nature 319: 109–115.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dickinson. R.E., and B. Hanson. 1984. Vegetation-albedo feedbacks. Pages 180–187 in J.E. Hansen and T. Takahashi, editors. Climate processes and climate sensitivity. Geophysical Monograph 5. American Geophysical Union, Washington, D.C., USA.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dolph. J. 1990. An analysis of the distribution of precipitation and runoff from the historical record for the continental United States. M.A. Thesis. Department of Geoscience. Oregon State University. Corvallis, Oregon, USA.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dolph. J. 1990. An analysis of the distribution of precipitation and runoff from the historical record for the continental United States. M.A. Thesis. Department of Geoscience. Oregon State University. Corvallis, Oregon, USA.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dooge, J.C. 1986. Looking for hydrologic laws. Water Resources Research 22: 46S–58S.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Eagleson, P.S. 1978. Climate, soil, and vegetation. I. Introduction to water balance dynamics. Water Resources Research 14: 705–712.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Eagleson, P.S. 1982. Land surface processes in atmospheric general circulation models. Page 560 in Proceedings of Greenbelt Study Conference. Cambridge University Press. New York. New York, USA.

    Google Scholar 

  • Eagleson, P.S. 1986. The emergence of global-scale hydrology. Water Resources Research 22: 6S–14S.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Eagleson, P.S.. and R.I. Segarra. 1985. Water-limited equilibrium of savanna vegetation systems. Water Resources Research 21: 1483–1493.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Earthlnfo. Inc. 1988. Climate data users manual. Denver. Colorado. USA.

    Google Scholar 

  • Eubank. R.L. 1988. Spline smoothing and nonparametric regression. Statistics: Textbooks and Monographs 90. Marcel-Dekker. New York. New York. USA.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fleagle, R.G., and J.A. Businger. 1980. An introduction to atmospheric physics. Second edition. Academic Press, New York. New York. USA.

    Google Scholar 

  • Franklin, J.F., F.J. Swanson, M.E. Harmon, D.A. Perry, T.A. Spies, V.H. Dale, A. McKee, W.K. Ferrell, S.V. Gregory, J.D. Lattin, T.D. Schowalter, D. Larsen, and J.E. Means. 1991. Effects of global climate change on forests in northwestern North America. In R.L. Peters and T.E. Lovejoy, editors. Global warming and biological diversity. Yale University Press, New Haven, Connecticut, USA, in press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Frew, J.E. 1990. The Image Processing Workbench. Dissertation. Department of Geography, University of California, Santa Barbara. California. USA.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gleick, P.H. 1987a. Regional hydrologic consequences of increases in atmospheric C02 and other trace gases. Climatic Change 10: 137–161.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gleick, P.H. 1987Zb. The development and testing of a water balance model for climate impact assessment: modeling the Sacramento Basin. Water Resources Research 23: 1049–1061.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hansen, J.. I. Fung. A. Lacis. D. Rind. S. Lcbedeff. R. Ruedy. and G. Russell. 1988. Global climate changes as forecast by Goddard Institute for Space Studies three dimensional model. Journal of Geophysical Research 93: 9341–9364.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Hansen, J., A. Lacis, D. Rind. G. Russell. P. Stone, I. Fung. R. Ruedy, and J. Lerner. 1984. Climate sensitivity, analysis of feedback mechanisms. Pages 130–163 in J.E. Hansen and T. Takahashi, editors. Climate processes and climate sensitivity. Geophysical Monograph 5. American Geophysical Union. Washington. D.C., USA.

    Google Scholar 

  • Houghton. J.T., G.J. Jenkins, and J.J. Ephraums. editors. 1990. Climate change: the IPCC scientific assessment. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. England.

    Google Scholar 

  • Isaaks, E.H., and R.M. Srivastava. 1989. Applied geostatistics. Oxford University Press, New York. New York, USA.

    Google Scholar 

  • Jenne. R.L. 1990. Data from climate models, the C02 warming. National Center for Atmospheric Research. Boulder, Colorado. USA.

    Google Scholar 

  • Karl, T.R., C.N. Williams, F.T. Quinlan. and T.A. Boden. 1990. United States Historical Climatology Network (HCN) serial temperature and precipitation data. United States Department of Energy, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center. Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA.

    Google Scholar 

  • Keeling. C.D. 1973. Industrial production of carbon dioxide from fossil fuels and limestone. Tellus 25: 174–198.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Keeling. C.D.. and R.B. Bacastow. 1977. Impact of industrial gasses on climate. Pages 72–95 in Energy and climate. National Academy of Sciences, Washington, D.C., USA.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kern, J.S. 1991. The geography of soil carbon in the contiguous United States. Soil Science Society of America Journal, submitted.

    Google Scholar 

  • Korzun, V.I. 1978. World water balance and water resources of the earth. USSR National Committee for the International Decadc. UNESCO Press. Paris, France.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lettenmaier, D.P., and S.J. Burgcs. 1978. Climate change: detection and its impact on hydrologic design. Water Resources Research 14: 679–687.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lettenmaier, D.P., andT.Y. Gan. 1990. Hydrologic sensitivities of the Sacramento- San Joaquin River Basin. California, to global warming. Water Resources Research 26: 69–87.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Lettenmaier, D.P., and D.P. Sheer. 1991. Assessing the effect of global warming on water resources systems: an application to the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Basin, California. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management 117: 108–125.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Leverenz, J.W., and D.J. Lev. 1987. Effects of carbon dioxide-induced climate changes on the natural ranges of six major commercial tree species in the western United States. Pages 123–155 in W.E. Shands and J.S. Hoffman, editors. The greenhouse effect, climate change, and U.S. forests. Conservation Foundation, Washington. D C.. USA.

    Google Scholar 

  • Linsley, R.K., M.A. Kohler, and J.L. Paulhus. 1982. Hydrology for engineers. McGraw-Hill, New York, New York. USA.

    Google Scholar 

  • Manabe, S., and R.T. Wetherald. 1975. The effects of doubling the concentration on the climate of a general circulation model. Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 32: 3–15.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Manabe. S.. and R.T. Wetherald. 1980. On the distribution of climate change resulting from an increase in CO: content of the atmosphere. Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 37: 99–118.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Manabe, S., and R.T. Wetherald. 1987. Large-scale changes in soil wetness induced by an increase in carbon dioxide. Journal of Atmospheric Scicnccs 44: 1211–1235.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Marks, D. 1988. Climate, energy exchange, and snowmelt in Emerald Lake watershed, Sierra Nevada. Dissertation. Departments of Geography and Mechanical Engineering, University of California, Santa Barbara, California, USA.

    Google Scholar 

  • Marks, D. 1990. A continental-scale simulation of potential evapotranspiration for historical and projected doubled-C02 climate conditions. Chapter 3 in H. Gucinski, D. Marks, and D.P. Turner, editors. Biospheric feedbacks to climate change: the sensitivity of regional trace gas emissions, evapotranspiration, and energy balance to vegetation redistribution; status of ongoing research. United States Environmental Protection Agency EPA/600/3-90/078.

    Google Scholar 

  • Marks, D. 1990. A continental-scale simulation of potential evapotranspiration for historical and projected doubled-C02 climate conditions. Chapter 3 in H. Gucinski, D. Marks, and D.P. Turner, editors. Biospheric feedbacks to climate change: the sensitivity of regional trace gas emissions, evapotranspiration, and energy balance to vegetation redistribution; status of ongoing research. United States Environmental Protection Agency EPA/600/3-90/078.

    Google Scholar 

  • Martin. P.. N.J. Rosenberg, and M.S. McKenney. 1990. Sensitivity of evapotranspiration in a wheat field, a forest, and a grassland to changes in climate and direct effects of carbon dioxide. Climatic Change 14: 111–117.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mather. J.R., and G.A. Yoshioka. 1968. The role of climate in the distribution of vegetation. Annals of the American Association of Geographers 58: 29–41.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McNaughton, K.G. 1986. Regional evaporation models. Pages 103–106 in C. Rosenzweig and R. Dickinson, editors. Climate-vegetation interactions. Proceedings of a Workshop held January 27–29. 1986. NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center. Greenhelt, Maryland. Office for Interdisciplinary Earth Studies (OIES) and Uni¬versity Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR). Boulder. Colorado, USA.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mitchell, J.F.B. 1983. The hydrological cycle as simulated by an atmospheric general circulation model. Pages 429–446 in A. Street-Perrott, M. Beran, and R. Ratcliffe, editors. Variations in the global water budget. D. Riedel, Dordrecht. The Netherlands.

    Google Scholar 

  • NOAA. National Geophysical Data Center. 1989. Geophysics of North America: users guide. Unites States Department of Commerce, Boulder, Colorado, USA.

    Google Scholar 

  • Neilson, R.P., G.A. King. R.L. DeVelice, J. Lenihan, D. Marks. J. Dolph. B. Campbell, and G. Glick. 1989. Sensitivity of ecological landscapes and regions to global climate change. United States Environmental Protection Agency EPA/ 600/3-89/073. Environmental Research Laboratory. Corvallis, Oregon. USA.

    Google Scholar 

  • Parry, M.L., and T.R. Carter. 1989. An assessment of the effects of climatic change on agriculture. Climatic Change 15: 95–116.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Parry, M.T., T.R. Carter, N. Konijin, and J. Lockwood. 1987. The impact of climatic variations on agriculture. In Introduction to the IIASA/UNEP case studies in semi-arid regions. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. Laxenburg, Austria.

    Google Scholar 

  • Perrier, A. 1982. Land surface processes: vegetation. In Land surface processes in atmospheric general circulation models. Proceedings of Greenbelt Study Conference. Cambridge University Press, New York, New York, USA.

    Google Scholar 

  • Phillips. D.L., J. Dolph. and D. Marks. 1991. A comparison of geostatistical procedures for spatial analysis of precipitation in mountain terrain. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, in press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Prentice. J.C., and I.Y. Fung. 1990. The sensitivity of terrestrial carbon storage to climatic change. Nature 346: 48–51.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Quinlan, F.T.. T.R. Karl, and C.N. Williams, Jr. 1987. United States Historical Climatology Network (HCN) serial temperature and precipitation data. NDP-019. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center. Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee. USA.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ramanathan, V.R., R.J. Cicerone, H.B. Singh, and J.T. Kichl. 1985. Trace gas trends and their potential role in climate change. Journal of Geophysical Research 90: 5547–5566.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Rind, D. 1984. The influence of vegetation on the hydrologie cycle in a global climate model. Pages 73–92 in J.E. Hansen and T. Takahashi, editors. Climate processes and climate sensitivity. Geophysical Monograph 5. American Geophysical Union, Washington, D.C., USA.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rosenzweig. C.. and R. Dickinson. 1986. Climate-vegetation interactions. Workshop Proceedings, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center. Greenbelt, Maryland. USA.

    Google Scholar 

  • Running. S.W., R.R. Nemani, D.L. Peterson, L.E. Band, D.F. Potts, L.L. Pierce, and M.A. Spanner. 1989. Mapping regional forest évapotranspiration and photosynthesis by coupling satellite data with ecosystem simulation. Ecology 70: 1090–1101.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Running. S.W., R H. Waring, and R.A. Rydell. 1975. Physiological control of water flux in conifers: a computer simulation model. Oecologia (Berlin) 18:1 –16.

    Google Scholar 

  • Schlesinger, M.E. 1988. Quantitative analysis of feedbacks in climate model simulations of CO2-induced warming. Pages 653–737 in M.E. Schlesinger, editor. Physically-based modelling and simulation of climate and climatic change. Volume C. Mathematical and physical sciences. NATO ASI Series 243. Kluwer, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.

    Google Scholar 

  • Schlesinger, M.E., and Z.C. Zhao. 1989. Seasonal climatic change introduced by doubled CO2 as simulated by the OSU atmospheric GCM/mixed-layer ocean model. Journal of Climate 2: 429–495.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sheer, D.P., and D. Randall. 1989. Methods for evaluating the potential impacts of global climate change: case studies of the state of California and Atlanta, Georgia. Chapter 2 in J,B. Smith and D A Tirpak, editors. The potential effects of global climate change on the United States. Volume A. Water resources. United States Enviromental Protection Agency EPA/230/05-89/051, Washington, D.C., USA.

    Google Scholar 

  • Shukla, J., C. Nobre, and P. Sellers. 1990. Amazon deforestation and climate change. Science 247: 1322–1325.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Smith, J.B., and D.A. Tirpak. 1989. The Potential effects of global climate change on the United States. United States Environmental Protection Agency EPA/230/ 05-89/051, Washington, D.C., USA.

    Google Scholar 

  • Snyder, J.P., and P.M. Voxland. 1989. An album of map projections. United States Geological Survey, Professional Paper.

    Google Scholar 

  • Solomon, A.M. 1986. Transient response of forests to CO2-induced climate change: simulation modeling experiments m eastern North America. Oecologia (Berlin) 68: 567–579.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stephenson, N.L. 1990. Climatic control of vegetation distribution: the role of the water balance. American Naturalist 135: 649–670.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stewart, B.J. 1982. Sensitivity and significance of turbulent energy exchange over an alpine snow surface. M.A, Thesis. Department of Geography, University of California, Santa Barbara, California. USA.

    Google Scholar 

  • Strain, B.R. 1985. Physiological and ecological controls on carbon sequestering in terrestrial ecosystems. Biogeochemistry 1: 219–232.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization. 1975. Soil map of the world, Volume 2. North America, 15,000,000 digital map with text. UNESCO, Paris, France.

    Google Scholar 

  • United States Army Corps of Engineers (USAGE), 1981. Adjusted streamflow and storage. 1928–1978, Columbia River and coastal basins. USAGE Columbia River Water Management Group, Portland, Oregon, USA.

    Google Scholar 

  • United States Army Corps of Engineers (USAGE). 1988. GRASS users and programmers manual. USAGE, Construction Engineering Research Laboratory, Champaign, Illinois, USA.

    Google Scholar 

  • United States Department of Agriculture, Soil Conservation Service (SOS). 1988. Snow survey and water supply products reference. USDA-SOS Western National Technical Center. Portland, Oregon, USA.

    Google Scholar 

  • Verheye, W.H. 1989. Le régime hydfque des sots d’Europe, basé sur des données pédulogiques et climatologiques antrantes: principes et approche méthodologique. Science du sol 27: 117–130.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wallis, J.R., D.P. Lettemmaier, and E.F. Wood. 1991. A daily hydro-climatological data set for the continental United States, Water Resources Research 27: 1657–1664.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Waring, R.H., and J.F. Franklin. 1979. Evergreen coniferous forests of the Pacific Northwest. Science 204: 1380–1386.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Whittaker, R.H. 1975. Communities and ecosystems. Second edition. Macmillan, New York, New York. USA.

    Google Scholar 

  • Williams, P. 1989. Adapting water resources management to global climate change. Climatic Change 15: 83–93.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Woodward, F.I. 1987. Climate and plant distribution. Cambridge University Press, London, England.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Authors
  1. Jayne Dolph
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Danny Marks
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. George A. King
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Center for Streamside Studies, AR-10, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA

    Robert J. Naiman

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 1992 Springer-Verlag New York, Inc.

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Dolph, J., Marks, D., King, G.A. (1992). Sensitivity of the Regional Water Balance in the Columbia River Basin to Climate Variability: Application of a Spatially Distributed Water Balance Model. In: Naiman, R.J. (eds) Watershed Management. Springer, New York, NY. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4612-4382-3_8

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4612-4382-3_8

  • Publisher Name: Springer, New York, NY

  • Print ISBN: 978-0-387-94232-2

  • Online ISBN: 978-1-4612-4382-3

  • eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation