How to Create and Deploy Infection Models for Plant Pathogens

Abstract

This chapter is designed as a practical guide on how to create and deploy infection models for plant disease forecasting. Although, infection models have been widely and successfully used in plant pathology for many years, there is a general lack of standards for model development. In part, this is because most disease forecast models tend to be either complex or specialized. The first part of this guide is an overview of the biological considerations for infection, including temperature, moisture and splash dispersal requirements. The second part is a review of the strengths and weaknesses of new and commonly used infections models. Since weather conditions and infection risk alone does not determine disease severity, the guide provides some practical suggestions for integrating host, pest and cultural factors into a disease forecast in the third part of the chapter. The fourth part covers the best methods for collecting or obtaining the weather inputs used in infection models. The fifth section covers techniques for model validation both from a biological and commercial perspective. The final section briefly covers techniques for information delivery focusing on the internet.