Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to review the statistical evidence about the levels and growth of output in developing countries. There are first some comments on the suitability of the UN System of National Accounts for developing countries. This is followed by a study of the reliability of estimates of levels and trends in GDP for five African countries. Finally, there are some comments on the conventional methods of calculating per capita growth rates, and an alternative procedure is examined which reflects a distributional aspect of economic growth.
The author gratefully acknowledges the suggestions and advice of colleagues at the OECD Development Centre, particularly Michèle Brousse, Witold Marczewski and David Roberts.
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References
Blades, D. W., D. D. Johnston, and W. Marczewski, Service Activities in Developing Countries: An Analysis in the Framework of National Accounts (OECD Development Centre, Paris, 1974).
A System of National Accounts, Series F, No. 2, Rev. 3 (UN Statistical Office, New York, 1968).
Courcier, M., Manuel de Comptabilité National (Ministère de la Coopération, Paris, 1963). (The ‘Courtier’ system is a modified version of the French system of national accounts developed at INSEE.)
See for example T. P. Hill, Price and Volume Measures for Non-market Services (Statistical Office of the European Communities, Luxembourg, 1975)
A. Franz, The Measurement of Real Output (OECD, Paris, 1976, mimeo).
See for example National Accounts Report, 1964–68 (National Statistical Office, Zomba, 1969).
Kuznets, S., National Income and Its Components (National Bureau of Economic Research, New York, 1942) vol. II, Chapter 12.
Desai, R. C., ‘Consumer Expenditure in India 1931–2 to 1940–1’, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A (General), Vol. CXI, Part iv, 1948.
Prest, A. R., and I. G. Stewart, The National Income of Nigeria, 1950–51, Colonial Research Studies No. 11 (Colonial Office, London, 1953).
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This is a summary description from Blades, D. W., Non-monetary (Subsistence) Activities in the National Accounts of Developing Countries (OECD, Paris, 1975).
Greenfield, C. C. ‘A Revised Procedure for Dual Record Systems in Estimating Vital Events’, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, A, 139, Part 3, 1976.
Kuznets, S., ‘Problems of Comparing Recent Growth Rates for Developed and Less Developed Countries’, Economic Development and Cultural Change, January 1972. Kuznets was primarily concerned with the calculation of growth rates for regions — i.e. groups of developing countries, but as he points out his reasoning is equally applicable to population groups within a single country. See also Latest Information on National Accounts of Developing Countries, No. 7 (OECD, Paris, 1973), which gives Kuznets-type and conventional per capita growth rates for various regions.
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© 1980 International Economic Association
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Blades, D.W. (1980). What do We Know About Levels and Growth of Output in Developing Countries? A Critical Analysis with Special Reference to Africa. In: Matthews, R.C.O. (eds) Economic Growth and Resources. International Economic Association Series. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-04063-6_3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-04063-6_3
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