Abstract
When people make interventions to a system they expect the effects to be nearly instantaneous. Unfortunately, in most of the cases the intervention intended to improve the process actually causes outcomes to get worse before they get better, if they get better at all. The challenge in these types of situations is being able to readjust expectations that there is a delay in the improvement. This is not simply a case of learning curve where people get better by performing repetitive tasks over time. What we are describing is a delay in the improvement and, in some cases, a degradation of performance.
In this paper we discuss why humans tend to underestimate such delays in process improvement across a variety of circumstances. To illustrate this, we compare data collected from a survey with three well-documented scenarios of process improvement: the implementation of a preventative maintenance program at DuPont, the modification of Tiger Woods’ golf swing, and the implementation of a platform engineering initiative for the embedded software product line at Rolls-Royce. We discuss potential reasons for the chronic underestimation of these types of improvements and recommend mechanisms for making these estimates more realistic.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Carroll J., Sterman J., and Marcus A. (1998). Playing the maintenance game: How mental models drive organizational decisions. In Halpern, J. and Stern, R. (Eds.), Debating rationality: Nonrational elements of organizational decision making (pp. 99-121). Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press
Fiddaman Thomas S. (2002) Exploring policy options with a behavioral climate–economy model. System Dynamics Review. 18, 243–267
PGA Tour Money Leaders. Available at:<http://espn.go.com/golf/moneylist>. Accessed on: Feb. 14th 2011
GOLF; Change Is Good as Woods Shoots Best Score of the Day (The New York Times). Available at: http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9B03E0D6153CF935A35752C1A9629C8B63&scp=9&sq=tiger%20woods%20change%20swing&st=cse&emc=eta1. Accessed on: Feb. 14th 2011.
GOLF; Change Is Good as Woods Shoots Best Score of the Day (The New York Times). Available at: <http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9B03E0D6153CF935A35752C1A9629C8B63&scp=9&sq=tiger%20woods%20change%20swing&st=cse&emc=eta1>. Accessed on: Feb. 14th 2011
Jones Drew, Keating Elizabeth K, Oliva Rogelio, Repenning Nelson P, Rockart Scott, Sterman John D. (1996) The Improvement Paradox: Designing Sustainable Quality Improvement Programs. Systems Dynamics Conference
Keating Elizabeth K, Oliva Rogelio, Repenning Nelson P, Rockart Scott, Sterman John D. (1999) Overcoming the Improvement Paradox. European Management Journal 17(2), 120–134
Koehler D. J., Harvey N. (1997). Confidence judgments by actors and observers. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 10, 221–242
Lee M. and Smith G. (2002). Regression to the mean and football wagers. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 15(4), 329–342
Murphy A. H. and Winkler R. L. (1984). Probability forecasting in meteorology, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 79, 489–500
Nolan A. Building a Comprehensive Software Product Line Cost Model. (Internal report, Rolls-Royce)
Rahmandad Hazhir, Repenning Nelson and Sterman John. (2009) Effects of feedback delay on learning. System Dynamics Review. 25, 309–338
Sterman J., Banaghan E., and Gorman E. (1992) Learning to stitch in time: Building a proactive maintenance culture at E.I. Du Pont de Nemours and Co. Case study available from author. MIT, Sloan School of Management, Cambridge, MA 02142
Sterman John D. Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. McGraw-Hill Higher Education 2000
Thun Jörn-Hendrick. (2006) Maintaining preventive maintenance and maintenance prevention: analysing the dynamic implications of Total Productive Maintenance. System Dynamics Review. 22, 163–179
Valerdi Ricardo and Blackburn Craig. 2009 The Human Element of Decision Making in Systems Engineers: A Focus on Optimism. 2009 INCOSE International Symposium, Singapore
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2011 Springer-Verlag London Limited
About this paper
Cite this paper
Valerdi, R., Fernandes, B. (2011). Underestimation in the “When It Gets Worse Before it Gets Better” Phenomenon in Process Improvement. In: Frey, D., Fukuda, S., Rock, G. (eds) Improving Complex Systems Today. Advanced Concurrent Engineering. Springer, London. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-85729-799-0_1
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-85729-799-0_1
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, London
Print ISBN: 978-0-85729-798-3
Online ISBN: 978-0-85729-799-0
eBook Packages: EngineeringEngineering (R0)