Summary
Recent breakthroughs in malaria vaccines have given new hope that a safe, effective malaria vaccine may be found. The following epidemiological questions are addressed: 1. What level of vaccination coverage is required to offset the limitations of an imperfect diseasemodifying vaccine? 2. Could the introduction of a low-efficacy malaria vaccine lead to an increase in the number of secondary infections? 3.What characteristics of such a vaccine will have the greatest effect on the outcome? A mathematical model is developed for a disease-modifying malaria vaccine that is given once prior to infection, and the minimum coverage level for disease eradication is established. There is a threshold depending on the relative rate of infection, the efficacy of the vaccine and the duration of infection. Vaccines which reduce the rate and duration of infection will always result in a decrease in secondary infections. More surprisingly, there is a duration “shoulder,” such that vaccines that increase the duration of infection slightly will still lead to a decrease in secondary infections, even if the rate of infection is unchanged. Beyond this, the number of secondary infections will increase unless the rate of infection is sufficiently lowered. This is critical for low-efficacy vaccines.
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Smith, R.J. (2008). Could Low-Efficacy Malaria Vaccines Increase Secondary Infections in Endemic Areas?. In: Deutsch, A., et al. Mathematical Modeling of Biological Systems, Volume II. Modeling and Simulation in Science, Engineering and Technology. Birkhäuser Boston. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-8176-4556-4_1
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-8176-4556-4_1
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