Abstract
The evaluation of severity of illness in the critically ill patient is made through the use of severity scores and prognostic models. Severity scores are instruments that aim at stratifying patients based on the severity of illness, assigning to each patient an increasing score as their severity of illness increases. Prognostic models, apart from their ability to stratify patients according to their severity, predict a certain outcome (usually the vital status at hospital discharge) based on a given set of prognostic variables and a certain modeling equation.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Knaus WA, Zimmerman JE, Wagner DP et al (1981) APACHE-acute physiology and chronic health evaluation: a physiologically based classification system. Crit Care Med 9:591–597
Knaus WA, Draper EA, Wagner DP et al (1982) Evaluating outcome from intensive care: A preliminary multihospital comparison. Crit Care Med 10:491–496
Knaus WA, Le Gall JR, Wagner DP et al (1982) A comparison of intensive care in the U.S.A. and France. Lancet 2:642–646
Wagner DP, Draper EA, Abizanda Campos R et al (1984) Initial international use of APACHE: an acute severity of disease measure. Med Decis Making 4:297
Le Gall JR, Loirat P, Alperovitch A et al (1984) A Simplified Acute Physiologic Score for ICU patients. Crit Care Med 12:975–977
Knaus WA, Draper EA, Wagner DP et al (1985) APACHE II: a severity of disease classification system. Crit Care Med 13:818–829
Lemeshow S, Teres D, Avrunin J et al (1988) Refining intensive car e unit o utcome by using changing probabilities of mortality. Crit Care Med 16:470–477
Knaus WA, Wagner DP, Draper EA et al (1991) The APACHE III prognostic system. Risk prediction of hospital mortality for critically ill hospitalized adults. Chest;100:1619–1636
Le Gall JR, Lemeshow S, Saulnier F (1993) A new simplified acute physiology score (SAPS II) based on a European/North American multicenter study. JAMA 270:2957–2963
Lemeshow S, Teres D, Klar J (1993) Mortality Probability Models (MPM II) based on an international cohort of intensive care unit patients. JAMA 270:2478–2486
Castella X, Artigas A, Bion J (1995) The European / North American Severity Study Group. A comparison of severity of illness scoring systems for intensive care unit patients: results of a multicenter, multinational study. Crit Care Med 23:1327–1335
Bertolini G, D’Amico R, Apolone G et al (1998) Predicting outcome in the intensive care unit using scoring systems: is new better? A comparison of SAPS and SAPS II in a cohort of 1393 patients. Med Care 36:1371–1382
Higgins T, Teres D, Copes W (2005) Preliminary update of the Mortality Prediction Model (MPM0). Crit Care 9:S97 (abs)
Render ML, Kim M, Deddens J et al (2005) Variation in outcomeds in Veterans Affairs intensive care units with a computerized severity measure. Crit Care Med 33:930–939
Dybowski R, Weller P, Chang R (1996) Prediction of outcome in critically ill patients using artificial neural network, synthesised by genetic algorithm. Lancet 347:1146–1150
Engoren M, Moreno R, Reis Miranda D (1999) A genetic algorithm to predict hospital mortality in an ICU population. Crit Care Med 27:A52
Ruttimann U, Pollack MM, Fiser DH (1996) Prediction of three outcome states from pediatric intensive care. Crit Care Med 24:78–85
Parsonnet V, Dean D, Bernstein A (1989) A method for uniform stratification of risk for evaluating the results of surgery in acquired adult heart disease. Circulation 79:I3–I12
Smith EJ, Ward AJ, Smith D (1990) Trauma scoring methods. Br J Hosp Med 44:114–118
Champion HR, Copes WS, Sacco WJ et al (1996) Improved predictions from a severity characterization of trauma (ASCOT) over trauma and injury severity score (TRISS): results of an independent evaluation. J Trauma 40:42–49
Boyd C, Tolson M, Copes W (1987) Evaluating trauma care: the TRISS method. J Trauma 27:370–378
Alberti C, Brun-Buisson C, Chevret S et al (2005) Systemic Inflammatory Response and Progression to Severe Sepsis in Critically Ill Infected Patients. Am J Respir Crit Care Med 171:461–468
Vincent J-L, Moreno R, Takala J et al (1996) The SOFA (Sepsis-related organ failure assessment) score to describe organ dysfunction/failure. Intensive Care Med 22:707–710
Marshall JD (1997) The multiple organ dysfunction (MOD) score. Sepsis 1:49–52
Le Gall J-R, Klar J, Lemeshow S (1997) How to assess organ dysfunction in the intensive care unit? The logistic organ dysfunction (LOD) system. Sepsis 1:45–47
Timsit JF, Fosse JP, Troche G et al (2001) Accuracy of a composite score using daily SAPS II and LOD scores for predicting hospital mortality in ICU patients hospitalized for more than 72 h. Intensive Care Med 27:1012–1021
Moreno R, Vincent J-L, Matos R et al (1999) The use of maximum SOFA score to quantify organ dysfunction/failure in intensive care. Results of a prospective, multicentre study. Intensive Care Med 25:686–696
Bernard GR (1998) Quantification of organ dysfunction: seeking standardization. Crit Care Med 26:1767–1768
Boyd O, Grounds M (1994) Can standardized mortality ratio be used to compare quality of intensive care unit performance? Crit Care Med 22:1706–1708
Bastos PG, Sun X, Wagner DP (1996) The Brazil APACHE III Study Group. Application of the APACHE III prognostic system in Brazilian intensive care units: a prospective multicenter study. Intensive Care Med 22:564–570
Bastos PG, Knaus WA, Zimmerman JE (1996) The Brazil APACHE III Study Group. The importance of technology for achieving superior outcomes from intensive care. Intensive Care Med 22:664–669
Rivera-Fernandez R, Vazquez-Mata G, Bravo M et al (1998) The Apache III prognostic system: customized mortality predictions for Spanish ICU patients. Intensive Care Med 24:574–581
Cho D-Y, Wang Y-C (1997) Comparison of APACHE III, APACHE II and Glasgow Coma Scale in acute head injury for prediction of mortality and functional outcome. Intensive Care Med 23:77–84
Pappachan JV, Millar B, Bennett ED (1999) Comparison of outcome from intensive care admission after adjustment for case mix by the APACHE III prognostic system. Chest 115:802–810
Beck DH, Smith GB, Pappachan JV et al (2003) External validation of the SAPS II, APACHE II and APACHE III prognostic models in South England: a multicentre study. Intensive Care Med 29:249–256
Lemeshow S, Klar J, Teres D et al (1994) Mortality probability models for patients in the intensive care unit for 48 or 72 hours: a prospective, multicenter study. Crit Care Med 22:1351–1358
Abizanda Campos R, Balerdi B, Lopez J et al (1994) Fallos de prediccion de resultados mediante APACHE II. Analisis de los errores de prediction de mortalidad en pacientes criticos. Med Clin Barc 102:527–531
Fery-Lemmonier E, Landais P, Kleinknecht D et al (1995) Evaluation of severity scoring systems in the ICUs: translation, conversion and definitions ambiguities as a source of inter-observer variability in APACHE II, SAPS, and OSF. Intensive Care Med 21:356–360
Rowan K (1996) The reliability of case mix measurements in intensive care. Curr Opin Crit Care 2:209–213
Bosman RJ, Oudemane van Straaten HM, Zandstra DF (1998) The use of intensive care information systems alters outcome prediction. Intensive Care Med 24:953–958
Suistomaa M, Kari A, Ruokonen E et al (2000) Sampling rate causes bias in APACHE II and SAPS II scores. Intensive Care Med 26:1773–1778
Moreno R, Miranda DR, Matos R et al (2001) Mortality after discharge from intensive care: the impact of organ system failure and nursing workload use at discharge. Intensive Care Med 27:999–1004
Flora JD (1978) A method for comparing survival of burn patients to a standard survival curve. J Trauma 18:701–705
Hosmer DW, Lemeshow S (1989) Applied logistic regression. New York, John Wiley & Sons, pp
Lemeshow S, Hosmer DW (1982) A review of goodness of fit statistics for use in the development of logistic regression models. Am J Epidemiol 115:92–106
Hosmer DW, Lemeshow S (1980) A goodness-of-fit test for the multiple logistic regression model. Comm Stat A 10:1043–1069
Hadorn DC, Keeler EB, Rogers WH (1993) Assessing the performance of mortality prediction models. Santa Monica, CA, RAND/UCLA/Harvard Center for Health Care Financing Policy Research
Bertolini G, D’Amico R, Nardi D (2000) One model, several results: the paradox of the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test for the logistic regression model. J Epidemiol Biostatistics 5:251–253
Zhu B-P, Lemeshow S, Hosmer DW (1996) Factors affecting the performance of the models in the mortality probability model and strategies of customization: a simulation study. Crit Care Med 24:57–63
Harrell Jr. FE, Califf RM, Pryor DB (1982) Evaluating the yield of medical tests. JAMA 247:2543–2546
Hanley J, McNeil B (1982) The meaning and use of the area under a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Radiology 143:29–36
Ma G, Hall WJ (1993) Confidence bands for receiver operating characteristic curves. Med Decis Making 13:191–197
Hanley J, McNeil B (1983) A method of comparing the areas under receiver operating characteristic curves derived from the same cases. Radiology 148:839–843
McClish DK (1987) Comparing the areas under more than two independent ROC curves. Med Decis Making 7:149–155
DeLong ER, DeLong DM, Clarke-Pearson DL (1988) Comparing the areas under two or more correlated receiver operating characteristic curves: a nonparametric approach. Biometrics 44:837–845
Hilden J (1991) The area under the ROC curve and its competitors. Med Decis Making 11:95–101
Schuster DP (1992) Predicting outcome after ICU admission. The art and science of assessing risk. Chest 102:1861–1870
Kollef MH, Schuster DP (1994) Predicting intensive care unit outcome with scoring systems. Underlying concepts and principles. Crit Care Clin 10:1–18
Miller ME, Hui SL (1991) Validation techniques for logistic regression models. Stat Med 10:1213–1226
Rowan KM, Kerr JH, Major E et al (1993) Intensive Care Society’s APACHE II study in Britain and Ireland-II: Outcome comparisons of intensive care units after adjustment for case mix by the American APACHE II method. Br Med J 307:977–981
Goldhill DR, Withington PS (1996) The effects of casemix adjustment on mortality as predicted by APACHE II. Intensive Care Med 22:415–419
Sicignano A, Carozzi C, Giudici D et al (1996) The influence of length of stay in the ICU on power of discrimination of a multipurpose severity score (SAPS). Intensive Care Med 22:1048–1051
Apolone G, D’Amico R, Bertolini G et al (1996) The performance of SAPS II in a cohort of patients admitted in 99 Italian ICUs: results from the GiViTI. Intensive Care Med 22:1368–1378
Moreno R, Apolone G, Reis Miranda D (1998) Evaluation of the uniformity of fit of general outcome prediction models. Intensive Care Med 24:40–47
Moreno R, Apolone G (1997) The impact of different customization strategies in the performance of a general severity score. Crit Care Med 25:2001–2008
Metnitz PG, Valentin A, Vesely H et al (1999) Prognostic performance and customization of the SAPS II: results of a multicenter Austrian study. Intensive Care Med 25:192–197
Knaus WA, Harrell FE, Fisher CJ et al (1993) The clinical evaluation of new drugs for sepsis. A prospective study design based on survival analysis. JAMA 270:1233–1241
Le Gall J-R, Lemeshow S, Leleu G et al (1995) Customized probability models for early severe sepsis in adult intensive care patients. JAMA 273:644–650
Knaus WA, Harrell FE, LaBrecque JF et al (1996) Use of predicted risk of mortality to evaluate the efficacy of anticytokine therapy in sepsis. Crit Care Med 24:46–56
Castella X, Gilabert J, Torner F et al (1991) Mortality prediction models in intensive care: Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II and Mortality Prediction Model compared. Crit Care Med 19:191–197
Sirio CA, Tajimi K, Tase C et al (1992) An initial comparison of intensive care in Japan and United States. Crit Care Med 20:1207–1215
Moreno R, Morais P (1997) Outcome prediction in intensive care: results of a prospective, multicentre, Portuguese study. Intensive Care Med 23:177–186
Moreno R (2003) From the evaluation of the individual patient to the evaluation of the ICU. Réanimation 12:47s–48s
Perkins HS, Jonsen AR, Epstein WV (1986) Providers as predictors: using outcome predictions in intensive care. Crit Care Med 14:105–110
Silverstein MD (1988) Predicting instruments and clinical judgement in critical care. JAMA 260:1758–1759
Dawes RM, Faust D, Mechl PE (1989) Clinical versus actuarial judgement. Sci Med Man 243:1674–1688
Kleinmuntz B (1990) Why we still use our heads instead of formulas: toward an integrative approach. Psychol Bull 107:296–310
McClish DK, Powell SH (1989) How well can physicians estimate mortality in a medical intensive care unit? Med Decis Making 9:125–132
Poses RM, Bekes C, Winkler RL et al (1990) Are two (inexperienced) heads better than one (experienced) head? Averaging house officers prognostic judgement for critically ill patients. Arch Intern Med 150:1874–1878
Poses RM, Bekes C, Copare FJ et al (1989) The answer to ‘what are my chances, doctor?’ depends on whom is asked: prognostic disagreement and inaccuracy for critically ill patients. Crit Care Med 17:827–833
Winkler RL, Poses RM (1993) Evaluating and combining physicians’ probabilities of survival in an intensive care unit. Management science 39:1526–1543
Chang RWS, Lee B, Jacobs S et al (1989) Accuracy of decisions to withdraw therapy in critically ill patients: clinical judgement versus a computer model. Crit Care Med 17:1091–1097
Knaus WA, Rauss A, Alperovitch A et al (1990) Do objective estimates of chances for survival influence decisions to withhold or withdraw treatment? Med Decis Making 10:163–171
Zimmerman JE, Wagner DP, Draper EA et al (1994) Improving intensive care unit discharge decisions: supplementary physician judgment with predictions of next day risk for life support. Crit Care Med 22:1373–1384
Branner AL, Godfrey LJ, Goetter WE (1989) Prediction of outcome from critical illness: a comparison of clinical judgement with a prediction rule. Arch Intern Med 149:1083–1086
Kruse JA, Thill-Baharozin MC, Carlson RW (1988) Comparison of clinical assessment with APACHE II for predicting mortality risk in patients admitted to a medical intensive care unit. JAMA 260:1739–1742
Marks RJ, Simons RS, Blizzard RA et al (1991) Predicting outcome in intensive therapy units-a comparison of APACHE II with subjective assessments. Intensive Care Med 17:159–163
Knaus WA, Wagner DP, Lynn J (1991) Short-term mortality predictions for critically ill hospitalized adults: science and ethics. Sci Med Man 254:389–394
Lemeshow S, Klar J, Teres D (1995) Outcome prediction for individual intensive care patients: useful, misused, or abused? Intensive Care Med 21:770–776
Suter P, Armagandis A, Beaufils F et al (1994) Predicting outcome in ICU patients: consensus conference organized by the ESICM and the SRLF. Intensive Care Med 20:390–397
Chang RW, Jacobs S, Lee B (1986) Use of APACHE II severity of disease classification to identify intensive-care-unit patients who would not benefit from total parenteral nutrition. Lancet 1483-1486
Atkinson S, Bihari D, Smithies M et al (1994) Identification of futility in intensive care. Lancet 344:1203–1206
Murray LS, Teasdale GM, Murray GD et al (1993) Does prediction of outcome alter patient management? Lancet 341:1487–1491
Gattinoni L, Brazzi L, Pelosi P et al (1995) A trial of goal orientated hemodynamic therapy in critically ill patients. N Engl J Med 333:1025–1032
Henning RJ, McClish D, Daly B et al (1987) Clinical characteristics and resource utilization of ICU patients: implementation for organization of intensive care. Crit Care Med 15:264–269
Wagner DP, Knaus WA, Draper EA (1987) Identification of low-risk monitor admissions to medical-surgical ICUs. Chest 92:423–428
Wagner DP, Knaus WA, Draper EA et al (1983) Identification of low-risk monitor patients within a medical-surgical ICU. Med Care 21:425–433
Zimmerman JE, Wagner DP, Knaus WA et al (1995) The use of risk predictors to identify candidates for intermediate care units. Implications for intensive care unit utilization. Chest;108:490–499
Zimmerman JE, Wagner DP, Sun X et al (1996) Planning patient services for intermediate care units: insights based on care for intensive care unit low-risk monitor admissions. Crit Care Med 24:1626–1632
Strauss MJ, LoGerfo JP, Yeltatzie JA et al (1986) Rationing of intensive care unit services. An everyday occurrence. JAMA 255:1143–1146
Civetta JM, Hudson-Civetta JA, Nelson LD (1990) Evaluation of APACHE II for cost containment and quality assurance. Ann Surg 212:266–276
Jones AE, Fitch MT, Kline JA (2005) Operational performance of validated physiologic scoring systems for predicting in-hospital mortality among critically ill emergency department patients. Crit Care Med 33:974–978
Hillman K, Chen J, Cretikos M et al; MERIT study investigators (2005) Introduction of the medical emergency team (MET) system: a cluster-randomised controlled trial. Lancet 365:2091–2097
Moreno R, Reis Miranda D (1998) Nursing staff in intensive care in Europe. The mismatch between planning and practice. Chest 113:752–758
Clermont G, Kaplan V, Moreno R et al (2004) Dynamic microsimulation to model multiple outcomes in cohorts of critically ill patients. Intensive Care Med 30:2237–2244
Knaus WA, Wagner DP, Zimmerman JE et al (1993) Variations in mortality and length of stay in Intensive Care Units. Ann Intern Med 118:753–761
Zimmerman JE, Shortell SM, Knaus WA et al (1993) Value and cost of teaching hospitals: a prospective, multicenter, inception cohort study. Crit Care Med 21:1432–1442
Rapoport J, Teres D, Lemeshow S et al (1994) A method for assessing the clinical performance and cost-effectiveness of intensive care units: a multicenter inception cohort study. Crit Care Med 22:1385–1391
Teres D, Rapoport J (1991) Identifying patients with high risk of high cost. Chest 99:530–531
Cerra FB, Negro F, Abrams J (1990) APACHE II score does not predict multiple organ failure or mortality in post-operative surgical patients. Arch Surg 125:519–522
Rapoport J, Teres D, Lemeshow S et al (1990) Explaining variability of cost using a severity of illness measure for ICU patients. Med Care 28:338–348
Oye RK, Bellamy PF (1991) Patterns of resource consumption in medical intensive care. Chest 99:695–689
Knaus WA, Draper EA, Wagner DP et al (1986) An evaluation of outcome from intensive care in major medical centers. Ann Intern Med 104:410–418
Hosmer DW, Lemeshow S (1995) Confidence interval estimates of an index of quality performance based on logistic regression estimates. Stat Med 14:2161–2172
Rapoport J, Teres D, Barnett R et al (1995) A comparison of intensive care unit utilization in Alberta and western Massachusetts. Crit Care Med 23:1336–1346
Wong DT, Crofts SL, Gomez M et al (1995) Evaluation of predictive ability of APACHE II system and hospital outcome in Canadian intensive care unit patients. Crit Care Med 23:1177–1183
Moreno R, Reis Miranda D, Fidler V et al (1998) Evaluation of two outcome predictors on an independent database. Crit Care Med 26:50–61
Le Gall JR, Loirat P, Nicolas F et al (1983) Utilisation d’un indice de gravité dans huit services de réanimation multidisciplinaire. Presse Med 12:1757–1761
Zimmerman JE, Rousseau DM, Duffy J et al (1994) Intensive care at two teaching hospitals: an organizational case study. Am J Crit Care 3:129–138
Chisakuta AM, Alexander JP (1990) Audit in Intensive Care. The APACHE II classification of severity of disease. Ulster Med J 59:161–167
Marsh HM, Krishan I, Naessens JM et al (1990) Assessment of prediction of mortality by using the APACHE II scoring system in intensive care units. Mayo Clin Proc 65:1549–1557
Turner JS, Mudaliar YM, Chang RW et al (1991) Acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE II) scoring in a cardiothoracic intensive care unit. Crit Care Med 19:1266–1269
Oh TE, Hutchinson R, Short S et al (1993) Verification of the acute physiology and chronic health evaluation scoring system in a Hong Kong intensive care unit. Crit Care Med 21:698–705
Zimmerman JE, Shortell SM, Rousseau DM et al (1993) Improving intensive care: observations based on organizational case studies in nine intensive care units: a prospective, multicenter study. Crit Care Med 21:1443–1451
Shortell SM, Zimmerman JE, Rousseau DM et al (1994) The performance of intensive care units: does good management make a difference? Med Care 32:508–25
Reis Miranda D, Ryan DW, Schaufeli WB, Fidler V (eds) (1997) Organization and management of Intensive Care: a prospective study in 12 European countries. Berlin, Springer
Moreno R, Matos R (2000) The ‘new’ scores: what problems have been fixed, and what remain. Curr Opin Crit Care 6:158–165
Moreno R, Matos R (2001) New issues in severity scoring: interfacing the ICU and evaluating it. Curr Opin Crit Care 7:469–474
Teres D, Lemeshow S (1993) Using severity measures to describe high performance intensive care units. Crit Care Clin 9:543–954
Teres D, Lemeshow S (1994) Why severity models should be used with caution. Crit Care Clin 10:93–110
Teres D, Lieberman S (1991) Are we ready to regionalize pediatric intensive care? Crit Care Med 19:139–140
Pollack MM, Alexander SR, Clarke N et al (1990) Improved outcomes from tertiary center pediatric intensive care: a statewide comparison of tertiary and nontertiary care facilities. Crit Care Med 19:150–159
Goldstein H, Spiegelhalter DJ (1996) League tables and their limitations: statistical issues in comparisons of institutional performance. J R Stat Soc A 159:385–443
Lemeshow S, Teres D, Pastides H et al (1985) A method for predicting survival and mortality of ICU patients using objectively derived weights. Crit Care Med 13:519–525
Lemeshow S, Teres D, Avrunin JS et al (1987) A comparison of methods to predict mortality of intensive care unit patients. Crit Care Med 15:715–722
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2005 Springer-Verlag Italia
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Moreno, R., Metnitz, P. (2005). Scoring Systems and Outcome. In: Gullo, A., Lumb, P.D. (eds) Intensive and Critical Care Medicine. Springer, Milano. https://doi.org/10.1007/88-470-0350-4_11
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/88-470-0350-4_11
Publisher Name: Springer, Milano
Print ISBN: 978-88-470-0349-1
Online ISBN: 978-88-470-0350-7
eBook Packages: MedicineMedicine (R0)